The best consolation for another fantastic season of college football nearing its end is that NFL Draft season will soon be here. What better way to usher in that glorious time of year than a way-too-early mock draft, especially given that early declarations for the Class of 2023 are being filed every day now, strengthening a class expected to offer bumper crops at quarterback, defensive back and along the defensive line.
Neither the full list of players eligible nor the draft order, obviously, has been determined. One thing that is known and relatively unique to the first round of this year’s draft is that it will only contain 31 selections. That is because prior to the start of this season, the NFL revoked the Miami Dolphins‘ own 2023 pick as punishment for tampering with Sean Payton and Tom Brady while each was under contract with another team.
Fortunately for the Dolphins, Miami had another first-round pick after trading down with San Francisco two years ago as part of the deal that netted the 49ers quarterback Trey Lance. Miami since moved that pick to Denver for pass-rusher Bradley Chubb, one of five picks in the 2023 first round who have already been swapped.
The Houston Texans (picks No. 1 and 13), Seattle Seahawks (No. 3, 20), Detroit Lions (No. 4, 15) and Philadelphia Eagles (No. 5, 31) each currently possess two selections in the first round.
The Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints, Cleveland Browns, Dolphins and 49ers are each scheduled to make their first choices outside of the draft’s opening frame. We projected the top choices they do currently hold.
The draft order is based on current standings.
1. Houston Texans (1-10-1): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
The background of general manager Nick Caserio and head coach Lovie Smith suggest the Texans may surprise with this pick and opt for a defender, especially with plenty questioning how well the undersized Young will be able to transition to the NFL. As explained in this 2023 Quarterback Breakdown (https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2023-nfl-draft-scouting-bryce-young-cj-stroud-and-other-top-qb-prospects), however, should the Texans take the more traditional approach and draft a quarterback, Young is my favorite one in this class.
2. Chicago Bears (3-10): Will Anderson, Jr., Edge, Alabama
The Bears nearly signed Larry Ogunjobi to a three-year, $40.5 million dollar deal this past offseason, showing their desire (or is it desperation?) to add a penetrating 3-technique defensive tackle to their front. That deal fell through, and so might the Bears’ thoughts on gambling on the upside of one of this year’s top DTs should Anderson be available. Chicago currently ranks dead-last in the NFL with just 16 sacks on the season. Anderson has over twice that many, himself, over his three-year Alabama career. Should the draft start off as projected — with two players selected from the Crimson Tide — it would mark the fourth time in NFL history (2000, 1984, 1967) that college teammates were the first two picks of the same draft.
3. Seattle Seahawks (from DEN, 3-9): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Rather than gamble on a long-term solution at quarterback with one of the premium picks acquired from Denver in the Russell Wilson trade, the Seahawks address a leaky run defense and help their pass rush by adding the powerful Carter, an ascending talent some believe is the best player in this class.
4. Detroit Lions (from LAR, 3-9): Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
Yes, the Lions could select a quarterback here. But with the team playing better recently with veteran Jared Goff and an effective running game, adding even more firepower to a good young defensive lines just feels like the route head coach Dan Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes want to take. The 6-foot-6, 275-pound Wilson doesn’t yet get the national acclaim of some of his peers in this defensive line class but his length, power and upside are exciting and could remind longtime Lions fans of another surprise top-five pick years ago: Ziggy Ansah.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (from NO, 4-9): Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
General manager Howie Roseman and the currently 11-1 Eagles are in the enviable position of supplementing the league’s deepest and most talented roster with a top-five pick. Already sporting an NFL frame and game, Murphy is as gifted as any prospect in this class and the kind of talent who could turn Philadelphia from a Super Bowl contender into a potential dynasty.
6. Carolina Panthers (4-8): Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Sam Darnold has the rest of this season to convince the Panthers that he is the long-term answer at quarterback, but he has shown little evidence to this point. Levis is clearly a gamble but just as undeniable are his tools and relative readiness, given his experience in a pro-style offense.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8): Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Trevor Lawrence has quietly taken massive strides in his second season, jumping from an ugly 12-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio as a rookie to 17 touchdowns and just six picks so far this season. The Jaguars could turn a solid receiving corps into one of the league’s best with the addition of Johnston, a rare athlete at 6-foot-4, who would beautifully complement slot receiver Christian Kirk and former Atlanta Falcons standout Calvin Ridley.
8. Arizona Cardinals (4-8): Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
Given the investment made in Kyler Murray, the Cardinals must protect him at all costs. Skoronski has starred at left tackle at Northwestern but some have concerns about his below-average arm length and feel he projects better as a guard in the NFL. The Cardinals have issues at both positions and may see Skoronski as similar plug-and-play candidate as his Wildcat predecessor, Rashawn Slater, who earned a Pro Bowl invitation as a rookie in 2021 for the Los Angeles Chargers.
9. Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1): CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Whether it be Saturday, current GM Chris Ballard or someone else making the call for the Colts on this pick, it seems clear that Indianapolis needs to address its future at quarterback. Stroud has Pro Bowl potential.
10. Atlanta Falcons (5-8): Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
The Falcons may very well feel they are in a similar situation as the aforementioned Colts at quarterback, but with the top talents off the board, addressing a need at cornerback would also make sense, especially with a local star in Ringo potentially available. Ringo, just a redshirt sophomore, hasn’t posted gaudy stats like some of his peers, but his size/speed combination suggests that his best football still lies ahead of him.
11. Green Bay Packers (5-8): Joey Porter, Jr., CB, Penn State
Quarterback — not cornerback — may be the bigger current concern in Green Bay, but general manager Brian Gutekunst won’t bypass a Pro Bowl talent just to satisfy critics.
12. Las Vegas Raiders (5-7): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Even with the AFC West not emerging as the four-pronged aerial assault most expected prior to the season, the Raiders have surrendered an NFL-worst 70.3% completion percentage and a disappointing 20 touchdown passes (against just four interceptions) to opposing quarterbacks through Week 13. Long and agile, Gonzalez is viewed as the top cornerback in the country by some scouts.
13. Houston Texans (from CLE, 5-7): Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
A top-10 talent who may drop amid durability concerns, the Texans could see Bresee as the perfect 3-technique to satisfy their defensive-minded head coach, especially if the club addresses its greatest concern with its first pick.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7): Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
No longer protecting the burly Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers will likely be adjusting their approach up front. The 6-foot-6, 310-pound Johnson has emerged this season as one of the elite blockers in the country, demonstrating both light feet and the physicality Pittsburgh has always prioritized.
15. Detroit Lions (5-7): Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
T.J. Hockenson was dealt to Minnesota just before the trade deadline, and the Lions could use a bigger, stronger replacement, especially as the team adopts a run-heavy attack.
16. Los Angeles Chargers (6-6): Jordan Addison, WR, Southern Cal
Nagging injuries to Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have robbed Justin Herbert and the Chargers of what felt like a potential Super Bowl run. Adding a dynamic talent like Addison might be the perfect insurance to avoid a repeat in 2023.
17. New England Patriots (6-6): Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa
Given the Patriots’ season-long struggles on offense, it seems a near-certainty that the club will focus on that side of the ball in the draft. Given how often Bill Belichick has stuck to predictable options, however, adding a physical tone-setter on defense like the ascending Van Ness is probably the more likely outcome.
18. Washington Commanders (7-5-1): Brian Branch, S, Alabama
Like the aforementioned Belichick, Washington head coach Ron Rivera is as old-school as it gets. Traditionalists like him will have a hard time letting Branch — arguably the surest tackler in this draft class at any position — slip any further.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6): Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah
The Bucs have one of the better young cornerback duos in the NFL in Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis, but with each being pending free agents and seeking big paydays, general manager Jason Licht may have little choice but to draft a replacement — or two. Phillips lacks ideal size but possesses terrific agility and ball skills to star immediately.
20. Seattle Seahawks (7-5): Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Geno Smith has emerged as one of the biggest surprise stories of the NFL and a legitimate Pro Bowl candidate, but at 32 years old and a pending free agent, Seattle may want to consider younger options, especially given that the club has two first-round picks. Just a one-year starter, Richardson is sushi raw, but he has traits worth betting on.
21. Tennessee Titans (7-5): Trenton Simpson, OLB, Clemson
With the Titans firing general manager Jon Robinson this week, head coach Mike Vrabel may be in even greater a position of authority for the 2023 draft than in previous years. As such, don’t be surprised if the former linebacker returns to his roots and adds an element of speed with Simpson, who is expected to wow in workouts.
22. New York Jets (7-5): Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
In his three NFL seasons since getting drafted 11th overall back in 2020, Mekhi Becton has played in just 15 career games. Fellow Jets tackles George Fant and Max Mitchell have also struggled with durability and consistency. At 6-foot-8 and nearly 360 pounds, Jones could be a truly “jumbo” Jet. I’m here all night, folks.
23. New York Giants (7-4-1): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
The Giants have been a pleasant surprise this season, but that’s despite limited contributions from their wide receivers. A savvy route-runner with reliable hands, Smith-Njigba should quickly emerge as a QB favorite.
Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2021 highlights
Check out the some of Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s best plays from the 2021 season
24. Denver Broncos (from SF via MIA, 8-4): Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia
Unlikely to find an option via this draft to truly push Russell Wilson, the Broncos may pivot to find a pass rusher who can help pressure him in practice and potentially replace Chubb. Following surgery to repair a torn pectoral, the undersized Smith is a bit of a wildcard, but expect the media to drop him more than NFL teams.
25. Baltimore Ravens (8-4): Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
Well-known for their draft-day prowess, the Ravens could look past the one injury-hampered season Verse played at Florida State and instead recognize the elite get-off and elusiveness which made him one of the most dynamic edge rushers in all of college football throughout his career at the FBS and FCS level.
26. Cincinnati Bengals (8-4): Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
Though quarterbacks and defensive linemen may have earned most of the hype to this point, the 2023 NFL draft appears to have another bumper crop of cornerbacks, with Smith earning plenty of first round buzz despite intercepting just one pass this season.
27. Kansas City Chiefs (9-3): Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Protecting Patrick Mahomes is a top priority in Kansas City, and with star blindside blocker Orlando Brown, Jr. entering free agency, the Chiefs would be wise to add youth and talent up front.
28. Dallas Cowboys (9-3): Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
The Cowboys may currently boast one of the NFL’s most dynamic 1-2 punches at running back, but with Ezekiel Elliott aging and Tony Pollard set to hit free agency, it’s easy to imagine Jerry Jones jumping on an opportunity to boost his club’s backfield should a superstar like Robinson somehow still be on the board. Robinson reportedly visited the Cowboys’ practice facility earlier this week.
Texas RB Bijan Robinson breaks free for a 32-yard touchdown run
Texas running back Bijan Robinson cuts inside and breaks free for a 32-yard touchdown, his fourth against Kansas.
29. Minnesota Vikings (10-2): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
With head coach Kevin O’Connell ushering in a new offensive-minded approach in Minnesota, the Vikings must fortify their secondary. Witherspoon, one of three finalists for the Thorpe Award, defended an eye-popping 17 passes in 2022, snagging three interceptions.
30. Buffalo Bills (9-3): Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
Star quarterback Josh Allen leads all current Bills runners in rushing touchdowns (five), yards per rush attempt (6.5) and longest run (36), meaning that even with Buffalo investing a second-round pick a year ago in James Cook, the team could look for an upgrade again, especially with current starter Devin Singletary a pending free agent.
31. Philadelphia Eagles (11-1): JL Skinner, S, Boise State
The Eagles may be the most talented team in the NFL but they currently lack physical intimidators in the back seven. At 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, Skinner looks more like a linebacker than a safety and will need to prove his athleticism to justify a first-round pick. But with the extra pick due to their trade with New Orleans, Roseman can justify a specialist with Pro Bowl potential to cap the first round.
Second Round
Los Angeles Rams: Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland
Injuries have ravaged the defending Super Bowl champions at virtually every position but especially along the offensive line. Duncan has the quickness and agility to project as a future NFL starter.
New Orleans Saints: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge, Kansas State
With future Hall of Fame candidate Cameron Jordan not getting any younger and Marcus Davenport heading into free agency with the Saints in salary-cap trouble, the Saints may prioritize an edge rusher in the draft. Like Jordan, Anudike-Uzomah is more polished coming out of college than most but could fall outside of the first round because he lacks elite measurables.
Cleveland Browns: Siaki Ika, DT, Baylor
The Browns have allowed 1,528 yards and 16 touchdowns to opposing runners over their first 12 games of the season, ranking among the leakiest run defenses in all the NFL. Ika isn’t much of a pass-rusher but at 6-foot-4 and nearly 360 pounds, he certainly can plug holes in the middle.
Miami Dolphins: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Both Mike Gesicki and Durham Smythe — the Dolphins’ top tight ends — are set to hit free agency and with Miami already dedicating millions to their pass-catchers, cheaper alternatives via the draft would make sense. Like Gesicki, Kincaid is more of an overgrown receiver than bulldozing blocker but he could star in this scheme.
Third Round
San Francisco 49ers — Jaxson Kirkland, OL, Washington
Projecting a deep third-round pick at this point in the draft process is truly throwing a dart, but the 49ers have selected at least one player from the PAC-12 in all but three of the past 22 drafts since 2000. Well-built and experienced at both tackle and guard, Kirkland would be a quality addition if still available.
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Rob Rang is an NFL Draft analyst for FOX Sports. He has been covering the NFL Draft for more than 20 years, with work at FOX, Sports Illustrated, CBSSports.com, USA Today, Yahoo, NFL.com and NFLDraftScout.com, among others. He also works as a scout with the BC Lions of the Canadian Football League. Follow him on Twitter @RobRang.
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