This is a critical AFC North matchup, as the Bengals can get one step closer to clinching the division and erasing the Browns‘ (slim) playoff hopes with a victory.
Cincinnati’s chances of winning the AFC North would jump to 97% by beating Cleveland, whose postseason odds would drop to 2% (0.1% in the division) in that scenario, according to FiveThirtyEight.
In recent weeks, the Bengals have played like the championship-caliber team the NFL world expected them to be entering this season after their surprising run to the Super Bowl in 2021.
They’ve won four straight games, most recently edging the Chiefs 27-24 at home. Star receiver Ja’Marr Chase (hip) has returned from a four-game absence and didn’t miss a step against Kansas City last week (seven receptions, 97 yards). The offensive line has significantly improved over the past month. The defense is ascending, proving it can dominate up front and in the back end. It held Titans star running back Derrick Henry to 38 rushing yards on 17 carries in Week 12, and the Bengals are leading the NFL opposing completion percentage (59%), according to ESPN Stats & Information.
New team at the top
Nick Wright ranks the Bengals at the top of his NFL Tiers after their win over the Chiefs in Week 13.
But the Browns have been a thorn in the side of Burrow and the Bengals. Cleveland walloped Cincinnati 32-13 on Monday Night Football earlier in the season. Burrow is 0-4 against the Browns in his career. The Bengals have lost five straight to the Browns. Bengals coach Zac Taylor is 1-6 against the AFC North foe.
Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson will be making his second start after a 700-day absence, and it’s reasonable to expect he’ll make strides after trying to knock off rust in Cleveland’s win over Houston, his former team. Watson completed just 54.5% of his passes (12-of-22) for 131 yards and an end-zone interception in the game.
The Browns enter Sunday winners of their past two games. Before topping the Texans, they beat the Buccaneers at home in overtime.
Matchup to watch: Browns RB Nick Chubb vs. the Bengals front
While Watson figures to be more comfortable in his second game back, the Bengals won’t make it easy on him. They rank in the top half of the league in pass defense (215.7 passing yards allowed per game). They could confuse him with stunts, twists and post-snap coverage looks — all things NFL quarterbacks know to expect, but something that could take Watson some time to get used to again at game speed.
That’s why Chubb is so important. He has to continue to be the engine of the offense with Watson still settling in. The dependable back is second in the NFL in rushing yards (1,119) and rushing yards per game (93.3).
The Bengals have been good but not great against the run (15th at 114.3 rushing yards allowed per game), but in two of their past four games, they’ve held opponents to under 65 rushing yards. Chubb was last held under 80 rushing yards in Week 11, when the Bills limited him to 11 carries for just 19 yards (1.36 yards/carry), one of the worst rushing performances of his career.
X-factor: Bengals RB Samaje Perine
In the Week 8 showdown with the Browns, the Bengals didn’t have a run game. Starting running back Joe Mixon had eight carries for just 27 yards (3.4 yards/carry). Cincinnati had a season-low 36 rushing yards overall in the game.
Perine has ascended in recent weeks with Mixon out. Perine has 245 rushing yards on 4.45 yards per rush since Week 9. He registered a career-high 106 rushing yards on 21 carries in last week’s victory over the Chiefs.
If the former fourth-round pick can build off that kind of production in the backfield, it could mean the difference between a win and a loss for Cincinnati in what should be a physical game (division matchups tend to be). And there should be an opportunity against the Browns in the ground attack. Cleveland is allowing 127.4 rushing yards per game, ranked 22nd in the league.
In his fourth season with the Bengals, Perine has 74 carries for 327 yards and a touchdown. He’s playing a career-high 40% of offensive snaps.
Prediction: Bengals snap their skid to the Browns.
This is a different Cincinnati team than the one that faced Cleveland in Week 8. Since then, the Bengals have won four straight games, Chase has returned and the offensive line has improved. Maybe most importantly, they’ve regained their swagger. Cincinnati is one of the most dangerous teams in the league right now.
The Browns offense struggling with Watson against the Texans, the worst team in the NFL, is not a good sign they’ll be able to keep pace with the Bengals.
Bengals 32, Browns 21
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Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Joe Burrow
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