Flash back to Nov. 20, and Dallas and Jacksonville couldn’t be going in more opposite directions. The Cowboys had just wrapped up a 40-3 win against the Minnesota Vikings, while the Jaguars were on a bye week, having just lost their sixth of seven games. A lot has changed since then.
To be fair to the Cowboys, they aren’t exactly trending down. Regardless of how stressful their last-minute win against Houston might have been, it extended their win streak to four games and secured their second-straight 10-win season.
Still, it’s fair to say Dallas has been sleepwalking a bit these last couple weeks — and it feels fair to say they can’t get away with doing that in Jacksonville this weekend (Sunday at noon CT on FOX).
The Jaguars have suddenly won two of their last three, with both of those wins coming over division leaders. This most recent victory was the most impressive, as they smacked Tennessee 36-22 in a game that was more lopsided than that score suggests. The center of the resurgence is the blossoming of Trevor Lawrence, who is starting to look more and more like most of us expected when he was the No. 1 overall pick. In his last three games, the second-year signal-caller has completed 69% of his passes for 868 yards, with eight total touchdowns to go with just one turnover. The Jags have added some talent for Lawrence to work with, but he looks like a guy who is taking a step in his development.
None of this is to say the Cowboys should be intimidated. They still boast the league’s second-most-efficient offense since Dak Prescott returned from injury. They’re 6-1 since he re-entered the lineup, outscoring opponents by an average score of 36-19 in that timespan. Jacksonville’s defense also presents a favorable matchup. Even with their recent turnaround, the Jaguars are allowing 29 points per game over the last month. They rank in the bottom half of the league in most meaningful metrics.
This is still a game you’d expect Dallas to win, as evidenced by their status as four-point road favorites. But there’s a lot more potential for fireworks than we might have initially thought.
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Matchup To Watch: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence vs. Cowboys CBs
If you’re looking for a weakness in the Cowboys defense, it’s hard not to be worried about attrition at the cornerback spot. Jourdan Lewis was lost for the year all the way back in October, and Anthony Brown recently tore his Achilles. Trevon Diggs is obviously an All-Pro, but this group is relying on unproven draft picks and journeymen to fill the other holes in the secondary.
That sounds problematic against a talent like Lawrence. Last week’s demolition of the Titans saw him set a career high for single-game passing yards, as he bombed away for 368. Perhaps more alarming for the Cowboys, he set a career best for yards per attempt with 8.8.
He’s playing with confidence and is clearly willing to go downfield. If recent results are any indicator, that could be an issue for the Cowboys. Texans receiver Chris Moore hit Kelvin Joseph for a 36-yard gain last week. The week before that, Colts receivers shook free in the red zone for easy scores of 14 and 15 yards.
Obviously, the Cowboys have one of the league’s best pass rushes to help offset this issue, but there should be plays to be made if Lawrence can stay on his feet. It won’t be easy, but it feels possible. The Jags have only surrendered 23 sacks on the year, with Lawrence’s natural athleticism helping him buy time in addition to his line’s abilities.
Key Stat: It’s time for one of those quirky stats that comes with a cross-conference matchup.
Heading into this matchup, the Cowboys have never beaten the Jaguars in Jacksonville. In fact, the two teams have only played in Jacksonville once in history, a 24-17 Jaguars win back in 2006. With the Jags being founded in 1995, the two clubs have only played seven games against each other, with Dallas holding a 4-3 edge. The Cowboys’ most recent road game against Jacksonville, a 31-17 win in 2014, was played in London.
Why Trevor Lawrence and the Jags are still ALIVE in the AFC South
Nick Wright says Week 15’s matchup vs. the Cowboys is the next great opportunity to bet on the Jags and is also a great opportunity for the Jags to make up some ground in the AFC South division race.
Prediction: It’s easy to buy into the hype of the hot new team.
The Jaguars have already done this once this season, raising eyebrows around the league by winning two straight and blowing out the Chargers. And to be fair to them, they are playing better right now than they were then — especially given the play of their young star quarterback.
Still, it’s hard to look over the rosters and think the Jaguars are the better overall team. The Cowboys simply do too much, too well. And, to hear it from them, a close call against Houston just might snap them out of the malaise that’s been affecting them the last three weeks.
Jacksonville has the firepower on offense to score some points, but Dan Quinn and the Dallas defense will find a way to generate at least one or two takeaways. That, combined with a favorable matchup for the Cowboys offense against this Jaguars defense, and Dallas should be good enough to make it five-straight.
Cowboys 34, Jaguars 24
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David Helman covers the Dallas Cowboys for FOX Sports. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing “Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion” about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter @davidhelman_.
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