We have arrived at the swan song of 2022.
In college football, that means the days first tick slowly toward National Signing Day, then the heart of the holiday season, and eventually to the College Football Playoff semifinals to put a bow on it all.
It also means we’re on the precipice of the coaching carousel reaching its natural conclusion. Navy just filled the last remaining FBS opening and the lack of interest from the NFL in college coaches this cycle means that the Midshipmen likely made the final hire. Should that hold true when the 2023 campaign kicks off, it would reaffirm that this was an interesting cycle that was active, but far from excessively turbulent like it has been.
After all, it was just last season that we got mega-moves from USC, LSU and Miami to help reset the market and set the tone for this past season in many respects. This season, Auburn, Nebraska and Wisconsin were your big early movers as the bulk of the interesting churn happened in the Group of 5.
Still, it was a 2022 coaching carousel that could largely be summed up as shock and awe.
Favorite coaching hires and most impactful transfers
Shock from moves like the Badgers’ quick trigger on native son Paul Chryst, and awe at being the ones to reel in Luke Fickell at the end of the day. Shock in the form of UAB making a conference transition by plucking a TV analyst-turned-high school coach to lead the Blazers, and awe at Florida Atlantic resetting with a proven winner like Tom Herman. Shock in David Shaw pulling the ripcord on his time on the Farm, and awe at Colorado going all-in on Coach Prime, Deion Sanders. Shock at Charlotte plucking Biff Poggi out of obscurity to lead the program, to awe at the Cornhuskers being the ones to land Matt Rhule.
Shock at Dan Mullen, Bronco Mendenhall and other accomplished head coaches not landing another gig. Awe at the youthful Kenny Dillingham, Brent Key, Alex Golesh and several others being handed the reins of sleeping giants in fertile recruiting territory.
The nature of the business means that some of these hires will fail in spectacular fashion despite — to borrow a phrase from another sport — being home runs. Other under-the-radar moves will prove to be fruitful despite not winning the press conference, so to speak.
How will things play out for each of the 24 new head coaches across FBS this cycle? Here’s a look at each and where each program goes from here.
Out: Herm Edwards (26-20, 17-14 Pac-12), fired Sep. 18
In: Kenny Dillingham
Grade: B
Outlook: This has always been a program that has had the resources to be great every once in a while, but has instead been mostly right above average since joining the conference. It has a solid local talent base, easy access to both California and Texas, quality facilities and a burgeoning alumni base capable of making it a big-time NIL player. Dillingham, a Valley native and alum himself, is building a staff capable of leaning into all the things previous coaches did not when it comes to talent acquisition — an area the Sun Devils should be better in right away.
The biggest question mark is simply between the lines over the coming seasons, as Dillingham is a 32-year-old first-time head coach who has only called plays for one season. All things considered, if you’re going to take a shot on a young offensive mind who gets modern college football, this is a pretty solid route to go. And if it doesn’t work out in three or four years, you can hit the reset button again without much pain or fuss.
Auburn
Out: Bryan Harsin (9-12, 4-9 SEC), fired Oct. 31
In: Hugh Freeze
Grade: B
Outlook: The Tigers’ coaching search was almost NFL-like in how everybody knew what was going on and when. They were always going to find a time midseason to let go of Harsin, and it was eventually going to come down to either top choice Lane Kiffin saying yes or Freeze taking the job.
Freeze is not without baggage (to put it mildly) from his time at Ole Miss and Liberty, but he does have something on his résumé few can match: beating Nick Saban multiple times. That matters on the Plains and goes hand-in-hand with being an SEC guy who understands the league and what it takes to get to the top. Still, for all the attention paid to the in-state rival, the actual on-field issues Freeze has shouldn’t be overlooked: he has just one top-10 finish, at least four losses in seven of his 10 years as a head coach and consistently find a way to trip up against less talented teams. Auburn is certainly capable of making the expanded College Football Playoff several times with this hire, but the Tigers are equally capable of going through another existential and expensive crisis in the next five years, too.
Out: Luke Fickell (57-18, 35-11 AAC), left for Wisconsin
In: Scott Satterfield
Grade: B+
Outlook: Many expected that the Bearcats’ move to the Big 12 would mean Fickell sticking around a bit longer. Instead, they had to deal with the sudden departure of their program builder just a year after reaching the CFP promised land. This has always been a quality gig, but the move to a Power 5 league does change the calculus some — the Bearcats will no longer be toward the top end of their conference in resources, fan support or recruiting.
Satterfield is a good coach who gets to reset his clock from a rollercoaster ride at Louisville, and he could prove to be a savvy selection with his ability to develop big-play offenses. Finding better balance with his defensive staff will be key, but there’s no reason to think he can get UC to being a regular bowl team with an occasional touch of title contention in the best top-to-bottom conference in the country.
Colorado
Out: Karl Dorrell (8-15, 6-9 Pac-12), fired Oct. 2
In: Deion Sanders
Grade: A
Outlook: The Buffs went from one of the most uninspiring, least energetic hires of any cycle to the absolute opposite of that in landing Coach Prime. Seriously, this program has been talked about (in a positive light) more in the past two weeks than it has nationally in probably close to a decade. That’s the rub too: Whatever difficulties arise from having Sanders’ unique way of running a program clashing with the status quo, the trade–off will always be worth it for a program that has been largely irrelevant since moving to the Pac-12 and among the worst in the country record-wise.
That changes instantly now. The talent will be better, the interest level will be increased, and one of the great college football venues becomes relevant far beyond the state lines once again. And if the Buffs still find themselves at the bottom of the conference standings or Sanders does well enough to land a blue-blood job, it will still have been a move worth making.
Deion Sanders’ recruiting power for Colorado
Out: Geoff Collins (10-28, 7-19 ACC), fired Sept. 26
In: Brent Key
Grade: B-
Outlook: If the Yellow Jackets had been a little more patient, perhaps they could have landed an established head coach like Willie Fritz. If they wanted to pay more, perhaps they could have lured an even bigger name to the Flats. Instead, they go with an alum on a sweetheart deal in the form of Key, who earned the big chair by going 4-4 and notching some big wins down the stretch. Knowing the place as he does will be an advantage, but this is still a difficult job given some of the restrictions, and it will take a lot of work to avoid another search in four or five years if the results don’t align with expectations.
Louisville
Out: Scott Satterfield (25-24, 15-18 ACC), left for Cincinnati
In: Jeff Brohm
Grade: A
Outlook: In terms of coaching searches, the Cardinals take the cake for one of the best moves in ages regardless of how Brohm’s tenure on the field turns out. They went from potentially bringing back a lame duck coach who had not gelled at all with the fan base, to instead getting a check for their troubles at the same time they get to quickly replace him with a native son who is fresh off a division title. If that’s not winning, not sure what is in this business.
In: Zach Arnett
Grade: B
Outlook: After being rocked by the unexpected death of Mike Leach, the Bulldogs quickly moved to promote Zach Arnett to head coach and allow for some continuity in the program. MSU doesn’t have a permanent athletic director, which may have played into the thinking, but the youngest coach in the league will certainly be given some leeway navigating things on and off the field in the coming weeks, months and years. His defenses should continue to cause trouble in the SEC and, if the right OC hire can be made, the Bulldogs can keep things rolling as a consistent bowl team that’s always a tough out. If things start to slide, the new AD should be able to make a change in a few years.
Remembering Mike Leach
Nebraska
Out: Scott Frost (16-31, 10-26 Big Ten), fired Sept. 11
In: Matt Rhule
Grade: A
Outlook: AD Trev Alberts conducted an extensive search and ended up landing the biggest name on the market. Rhule turned around Temple from two wins into a conference title winner. He resurrected Baylor amid a horrific scandal, going from 1-11 to 11-3 in just three seasons. While reaching such heights might be a little more difficult given the competition in the Big Ten, Rhule is as equipped as any to get the Cornhuskers on the right track both with on-field results and off-field culture. The most recent home-run hire at this place struck out, but at least initially, this seems about as close to a sure bet as you can find for a fallen blue blood.
Out: Jeff Brohm (36-34, 26-25 Big Ten), left for Louisville
In: Ryan Walters
Grade: B+
Outlook: The Boilermakers have found success with offensive-minded head coaches over the past few decades, so it was interesting to see them go with a young defensive coordinator to replace Brohm. That does make Walters’ hire of an OC critical to his success, but it’s hard to argue with his résumé, after helping quickly flip Illinois’ defense into one of the best in the country and doing excellent work at Missouri before that. He’s young, energetic and has a good grasp of what you need to do to win games with less talent. There’s certainly some risk, but you can understand the upside of becoming a more complete program as the new-look Big Ten takes shape.
Stanford
Out: David Shaw (96-54, 65-40 Pac-12), resigned
In: Troy Taylor
Grade: B-
Outlook: If any team faces a crossroads with their place in college football, it certainly is the Cardinal. Shaw led the program to new heights and helped stuff the trophy case in ways it never had been before, but things had clearly gotten stale the past few years. Enter Taylor, a former record-setting Cal QB who brings a very different offense to town and comes off a great stint turning around Sacramento State. The biggest challenge is not making the FCS-to-Power 5 jump, but seeing if the school is fully invested in playing football at this level and making the necessary changes to do so.
Wisconsin
Out: Paul Chryst (67-26, 43-18 Big Ten), fired Oct. 2
In: Luke Fickell
Grade: A
Outlook: Few had Chryst on the hot seat coming into 2022, but he found himself on the outs after just five games despite going 9-4 last season. That speaks to expectations around Madison and why they didn’t just give the job to interim coach and fellow alum Jim Leonhard. Fickell’s ability to build a program speaks for itself, and he’ll always have the distinction of guiding Cincinnati into the Playoff.
His hire of Phil Longo to bring the high-flying Air Raid to Camp Randall speaks to a coming culture change, but if anybody is going to pull off just such a transition, it’s probably the guy who knows the league like the back of his hand after spending nearly two decades in it. This is about as high floor/high ceiling as it gets for coaching changes at major programs.
Can Luke Fickell lead Wisconsin to the CFP?
Charlotte
Out: Will Healey (15-24, 10-14 CUSA0
In: Biff Poggi
Grade: B-
Outlook: The 49ers had perhaps the most left–field of hires this cycle and it comes at a time when they will be moving to a much tougher league at the same time. Nabbing a man who was a key cog in Michigan’s back-to-back CFP trips is understandable, but it’s still a big bet on a former investment banker who turns 64 before the season and hasn’t been a head college coach before.
Out: Jamey Chadwell (39-22, 24-16 Sun Belt), left for Liberty
In: Tim Beck
Grade: C
Outlook: Maybe this is one of those skeptical hires that ends up working out long-term. Still, Beck has been in charge of some big-name programs as an OC whose offenses were often criticized, and now he’ll be in charge of a program with super-high expectations that just lost a beloved head coach.
Out: Willie Taggart (15-18, 11-11 CUSA)
In: Tom Herman
Grade: A
Outlook: Lane Kiffin has proven you can resurrect your career in Boca and Herman has a good shot to do the same, even with the transition to the much tougher AAC.
Kent State
Out: Sean Lewis (24-31, 19-17 MAC), left for Colorado
In: Kenni Burns
Grade: A-
Outlook: Lewis left some big shoes to fill after putting together some record-setting offenses and hiring Big Ten assistants is a tried-and-true approach to filling vacancies in the MAC. But Burns knows the league well from his time at Western Michigan and should help bring a much more well-rounded approach to the Golden Flashes attack after doing wonders developing Mo Ibrahim and a host of others. This is a tough job, but it wouldn’t be shocking if he gets the team in contention before ending up back in the B1G down the road.
Liberty
Out: Hugh Freeze (34-15), left for Auburn
In: Jamey Chadwell
Grade: A+
Outlook: It is still wild to think that some Power 5 program didn’t hire Chadwell away this offseason after being one of the best teams in one of the toughest leagues in the past few years. The Flames have been hovering around being a top-25 program, and their new coach should do nothing but keep them right there. The gap between Liberty and the rest of CUSA is already vast and getting bigger with this hire.
Navy
Out: Ken Niumatalolo (109-83, 37-26 AAC), fired Dec. 11
In: Brian Newberry
Grade: B
Outlook: The outpouring of support for Niumatalolo after he was let go speaks to how one of the nicest men in the sport ran his program. Still, it’s been three seasons since the Midshipmen had a winning record and Army had started to tilt that series more in its favor. This is one of the toughest gigs in all of FBS and the well respected Newberry will have a hard time reaching the heights that his former boss Niumatalolo took them after two decades in Annapolis.
Out: Seth Littrell (44-44, 32-23 CUSA), fired Dec. 4
In: Eric Morris
Grade: B+
Outlook: The Mean Green stick with an Air Raid head coach to minimize roster turnover and get a native Texan who has won conference titles as a head coach. UNT is a tougher job than most give it credit for because of the location, but Morris has as good a chance as any at making the team more competitive with the top half of their new league.
Out: Jeff Scott (4-26, 1-19 AAC)
In: Alex Golesh
Grade: B
Outlook: Scott seemed like the ideal fit with his recruiting ties to the area but never did turn the corner in Tampa. Golesh’s arrival should help juice the offense right away, but it’s an uphill climb to get the Bulls back toward the top of the AAC again.
Out: Jake Spavital (13-35, 9-23 Sun Belt)
In: G.J. Kinne
Grade: B+
Outlook: The Bobcats needed to reconnect with their local roots, and who better to do that than a 34-year-old former Texas high school star who had solid college and pro careers? He has just one year of head coaching experience but did lead nearby Incarnate Word to the brink of the FCS title game. Kinne should have Texas State playing much more entertaining football right away.
Out: Philip Montgomery (43-53, 28-34 AAC), fired Nov. 27
In: Kevin Wilson
Grade: C+
Outlook: The Golden Hurricanes are one of the smallest schools in the country and as such resources are limited. Wilson knows the area from his time running Oklahoma’s offense, but also has never had a winning record as a head coach and left Indiana after investigations into player mistreatment.
UAB
Out: Bill Clark (49-26, 32-12 CUSA), resigned
In: Trent Dilfer
Grade: B-
Outlook: This doesn’t seem to be a middling hire whatsoever, with things either working out in a big way or flaming out in spectacular fashion. Dilfer should be able to get the offense working well, but it’s TBD on all the other things that go into being a head coach at the college level that keeps everybody’s optimism in check.
Out: Marcus Arroyo (7-23, 5-17 MWC)
In: Barry Odom
Grade: A-
Outlook: You probably have to go back to John Robinson around the turn of the millennium as the last time the Rebels hired somebody with the credentials that Odom sports. He has spent almost all of his career in the Ozarks, but knows how to put together a quality SEC defense and run a program. The OC hire will prove to be critical, but you can see how this raises the floor of what the team can do in a wide-open league.
Western Michigan
Out: Tim Lester (37-32, 26-20 MAC)
In: Lance Taylor
Grade: A-
Outlook: Taylor has gotten close to being the head coach at a couple of places but has a chance to turn things around quickly in Kalamazoo. His ability to recruit will pay dividends given how closely bunched the MAC tends to be, and it wouldn’t surprise if the Broncos were much more regular contenders for a division title given his track record for developing players.
Make It Make Sense
Early Bowl Superlatives
Best Player: Frank Gore Jr., Southern Miss
Team of the Week: South Dakota State
Coach of the Week: Trei Oliver, North Carolina Central
Goat of the Week: Billy Napier, Florida
G.O.A.T. of the Week: Lionel Messi, Argentina
Tweet of the Week
Pre-Snap Reads
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Marshall vs. UConn, 2:30 p.m. ET
The Huskies reaching a bowl in Jim Mora Jr.’s first season is a great storyline, but the Thundering Herd’s rushing attack will run them over.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose State, 3:30 p.m. ET
This game features two extremely underrated head coaches and a fun matchup between a good Eagles rushing attack and a Spartans squad that has an always entertaining QB in Chevan Cordeiro. Given the conditions that should be in play on the blue turf of Boise, lean with the MAC side in a close one.
Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty vs. Toledo, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Flames have lost three in a row coming into this one, while the Rockets have dropped two of their last three despite capturing the MAC title. There should be plenty of points from both sides, but something says Toledo is just a bit more motivated to get the win.
New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama, 9 p.m. ET
The Jaguars nearly upset UCLA and were ever so close to winning the Sun Belt, too. Their defense should lead the way and slow down a Hilltoppers group that has had several key players either enter or return from the transfer portal.
Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor vs. Air Force, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Falcons seemed to get little attention nationally despite having a very good year. The Bears failed to meet expectations on the flip side, but despite the challenges that Air Force poses in this one, don’t bet against a defensive mind like Dave Aranda with time to prepare for the option.
Independence Bowl: Louisiana vs. Houston, 3 p.m. ET
This might be the Disappointment Bowl given where expectations are for both fan bases. The Cougars are the superior squad and should roll, but the Cajuns might make things interesting early on if UH is unmotivated to play in Shreveport.
Gasparilla Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Missouri, 6:30 p.m. ET
A rash of portal defections will make it tough for the Tigers to get the win, especially with Sam Hartman looking to end the year on a high note with the Deacs’ high-flying offense.
Hawaii Bowl: Middle Tennessee State vs. San Diego State, 8 p.m. ET
There is no better bowl game to watch than this one while you’re wrapping some last–minute presents on Christmas Eve. SDSU’s Jalen Mayden has been a nice revelation for the Aztecs after early–season struggles and could be the edge in what should be a back-and-forth affair on the islands.
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Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.
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