So much happened last week in the NFL.
Baker Mayfield was released by the Panthers and picked up by the Rams, Tom Brady rallied back against the Saints for an impressive fourth-quarter win and the Lions dismantled the Jaguars.
Those storylines make it easy to look forward to another week in the League.
Starting with my best bet for Thursday Night Football, I’ve got some wagers that will hopefully help us all cash in big over the next few days. Let’s get into my best wagers for NFL Week 14 (odds via FOX Bet).
Rams claim Baker Mayfield off waivers ahead of TNF vs. Raiders
The Los Angeles Rams claimed Baker Mayfield off waivers after the Carolina Panthers released him.
Raiders at Rams (8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime Video)
The red-hot Las Vegas Raiders travel to take on the depleted Los Angeles Rams squad, losers of six straight games. The Rams are without their two best offensive players, quarterback Matthew Stafford and receiver Cooper Kupp; their offensive line has been a rotating cast of members; and on defense, the Rams are most likely without superstar Aaron Donald.
However, the Rams have not stopped playing hard and managed to cover in their last two games. I lean towards the Rams covering again, but I have a play I will wager on now.
I’m taking a prop bet: Davante Adams Over 88.5 receiving yards at FOX Bet.
The Raiders see the most two-high safety looks on first and second down, and as a result, they’ve been rushing the ball with wild success in these situations. Fortunately for them, the Rams rarely play with two-high safeties. They lead the NFL in cover three, with three defenders deep and four underneath. This is a poor coverage to run the ball against, with one less safety in the middle of the field. So I’d expect Adams to be the main target of the offense all game long.
Adams has four 100-yard-plus receiving games over the Raiders’ last five games. Those four games are against teams that primarily play with a single-high safety.
It’s simple, the Rams will play with a single-high safety, and when the Raiders see this, they will throw. Adams will be one-on-one without safety help. I love Adams in these types of situations.
PICK: Adams Over 88.5 receiving yards (-120 at FOX Bet)
Texans at Cowboys (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
There are two types of bad football teams in the NFL.
We have the fun bad teams, who always play close games but just can’t get over the top with wins — like the Chicago Bears. Yeah, they score a ton of points and have an electric quarterback, but they just can’t win football games.
On the flip side, there are the bad football teams that flat-out stink and are not fun to watch — like the one-win Texans.
The Texans are the 31st-scoring team in the NFL (shout out to the Broncos in last place) and have switched back to Davis Mills to lead their offense after his benching. Their defense ranks 32nd in efficiency. Not much else to say other than this team is putrid.
Additionally, the Texans have only covered in two of their last nine games, even with them being big underdogs.
And then you have teams like the Dallas Cowboys, who are improving each week. They just beat the Colts 54-19, and Dak Prescott’s efficiency numbers are rising. Along with this improved passing game, running back Tony Pollard is proving that he’s a number one running back. In the last six games, he’s averaging 93 yards per game, with nearly six yards a carry.
It’s never wise to bet on teams laying 16.5-point spreads, so I’d rather focus on a prop bet.
With the Cowboys winning big in the second half of this game, I expect Pollard to get a bulk of carries. The Texans allow the most rushing yards in the NFL, and Pollard will hit the over here.
PICK: Pollard Over 63.5 rushing yards (-110 at FOX Bet)
‘The Cowboys are just a little bit better than the Eagles
Skip Bayless is all set for his Dallas Cowboys Christmas Eve showdown against the 11-1 Philadelphia Eagles, but which NFC ‘Beast’ team is the better squad?
Panthers at Seahawks (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
I’m rolling with the Panthers to cover this number on the road with Sam Darnold at quarterback.
Darnold appears to be locked in after just one start against the Broncos‘ elite defense. The Panthers don’t need Darnold to be Superman, they just need consistency.
The Panthers defense ranks 21st in efficiency, but they’ve only allowed a combined 28 points over the last three games. They are playing a better Seahawks’ offense this week, so I do expect some backsliding, but they should be good enough to keep the game close.
This wager is less of a bet on the Panthers and more of a fade on the Seahawks, who started hot but quickly have returned to earth. The Seahawks lost to the Bucs and Raiders before narrowly beating a Rams team playing backups at almost every key position.
The Seahawks will most likely be without Kenneth Walker, the leading candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Without a run game, their offense just isn’t as good.
I’ll take the Panthers to cover the spread here.
PICK: Panthers (+4 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)
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Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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