Week 14 of the 2022 NFL season is upon us, and we are down to the last month of the regular season.
As teams jockey for the playoffs, things are heating up as a slip up here, or there can lead to losing home-field advantage or, worse, being left out of the festivities altogether.
All the teams in this week’s games I like are currently in the running, and we have a great game in the Eagles–Giants that will shape up the super competitive NFC East.
Also on this week’s card are my Jets, who face the Bills in their own battle for the jam-packed AFC East!
So without further ado, here are my best bets for Week 14 (with odds via FOX Bet).
Cowboys, 49ers & Eagles make Nicks top-tier NFC teams
Nick Wright explains the Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys are the three best teams in the NFC.
Jets at Bills (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
You’ve got the Bills in a revenge spot, off extra rest, and in total control of the No. 1 seed in the AFC after the Kansas City loss to Cincinnati.
Mike White has been a revelation for the Jets, playing great in the rain at home against Chicago and then rallying the Jets from down 20-3 and giving them a chance to win at Minnesota.
Yes, the 1-of-6 performance in the red zone was painful to watch, and Buffalo has a significantly better red zone defense than the Vikings. The Bills rank fourth in the NFL with 47.2% touchdowns allowed. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 20th overall with 56% TDs allowed.
With Von Miller out, the Buffalo pass rush looked mediocre at best, only sacking Mac Jones once and hitting him four times. Ultimately, this comes down to if the Jets can move the ball and stay within single digits. Buffalo turnovers kept the Packers alive and allowed them a cover; the same thing happened at home against the Vikings, a game Buffalo ended up losing.
I like both teams to score points. Take the Over.
PICK: Over 43.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
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Eagles at Giants (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
The Giants are limping into December with just one win since Halloween, and that came against the lowly Houston Texans. The counter, of course, is that they’ve lost to two playoff-bound teams (Seattle and Dallas) and surging Detroit.
The scary part is New York must now face the Eagles twice in a five-game span. Worse yet, the team the Giants are battling for a wild-card spot, Washington, is looming next week. The Commanders get to enjoy a bye week while the Giants face the NFC leaders? It doesn’t seem fair.
The Giants defense was on the field for 82 plays in the tie against Washington, struggled to stop the run (165 yards allowed), couldn’t contain Terry McLaurin (eight catches, 105 yards, touchdown) and nothing about this matchup says the Giants have a chance.
It won’t happen, but Brian Daboll should try to save his horses for next week’s huge game and not do anything crazy like run Saquon Barkley 20-plus times. You’ll hear the Eagles haven’t covered in three straight road games – not sure whether it matters.
PICK: Eagles (-6.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6.5 points
Jimmy G out for 49ers season
Nick breaks down what the rest of the Niners’ season will look like if they only have Brock Purdy, ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ to depend on.
Buccaneers at 49ers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
This had the feel of a high–level playoff game … before Jimmy Garoppolo broke his foot and was lost for the season.
Brock Purdy looked fine closing out the Dolphins game, but that was at home when Miami wasn’t ready for his skill set. Tampa Bay carries a much better defense, and this is a homecoming for Tom Brady, who is from the Bay Area. The 49ers are on a short week, having played on Monday Night Football, and they do have to travel across the country.
This is a massive coaching mismatch, with Kyle Shanahan going against struggling Todd Bowles. And the 49ers loaded defense should dominate this game at the line of scrimmage, especially if Tristan Wirfs (ankle/knee) can’t return.
Byron Leftwich has to change his philosophy of first down runs and playing conservatively with the greatest QB in NFL history. I would wait for the flat 3 points and then take the 49ers. Since it’s not available at the time of writing, I’ll go with Under 37.5, which is significantly down from the 41.5.
PICK: Under 37.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
Do Tua Tagovailoa’s struggles vs. 49ers prove he is not a franchise QB?
Colin Cowherd reacts to Tua’s poor game and breaks down what this shows about the QB, including whether he is a franchise-saving one or not.
Dolphins at Chargers (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)
Tua Tagovailoa is coming off his worst game of the season against the 49ers’ elite defense, but he should have much more success against a Chargers secondary that just got lit up by Davante Adams.
The Chargers still can’t stop the run (30th in efficiency), so Miami will set up deep passes to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle by hammering Jeff Wilson into the soft Chargers line.
So why is this line so short?
It is the second straight game on the West Coast for the Dolphins, and they’re staying in California rather than making the cross-country trek home. Also, Miami’s biggest game of the season looms next week in Buffalo.
The guess here is Miami will be the choice of professional gamblers, as their offense should return to form indoors against the Chargers, who are down expensive offseason acquisition J.C. Jackson, and their top cornerback, Asante Samuel Jr, grades out as the 90th cornerback out of 119.
Even with that all said, I like Justin Herbert & Co. to keep this game close. The Chargers are currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs, so this is a must-win game for them. Look for them to go all out in this one.
The Chargers are 6-2 against teams with a losing record and 0-4 against teams with a winning record. They would receive a huge boost if Joey Bosa returned from the groin injury he suffered in Week 3.
There will be many, many points.
PICK: Chargers (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
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