NFL odds Week 14: How to bet Panthers-Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks (7-5) look to continue their success against Carolina when they play host to the Panthers (4-8) on Sunday.

The Seahawks lead the all-time series 10-4, winning the past three games against the Panthers. The NFL teams were franchises passing in the night prior to the 2002 season – the Panthers left the NFC West to join the NFC South and the Seahawks went to the NFC West from the AFC West.

Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Panthers-Seahawks game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

Herd Hierarchy: Seahawks return in Colin’s Top 10 of Week 14

Colin Cowherd is back with his Top 10 teams heading into Week 14

RELATED: Week 14 power rankings

Panthers at Seahawks (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Point spread: Seahawks -4 (Seahawks favored to win by more than 4 points, otherwise Panthers cover)
Moneyline: Seahawks -213 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $14.69 total); Panthers +160 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $26 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 44.5 points scored by both teams combined

Carolina Panthers

CAR

Seattle Seahawks

SEA

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

I’m rolling with the Panthers to cover this number on the road with Sam Darnold at quarterback.

Darnold appears to be locked in after just one start against the Broncos‘ elite defense. The Panthers don’t need Darnold to be Superman, they just need consistency.

The Panthers defense ranks 21st in efficiency, but they’ve only allowed a combined 28 points over the last three games. They are playing a better Seahawks’ offense this week, so I do expect some backsliding, but they should be good enough to keep the game close.

This wager is less of a bet on the Panthers and more of a fade on the Seahawks, who started hot but quickly have returned to earth. The Seahawks lost to the Bucs and Raiders before narrowly beating a Rams team playing backups at almost every key position.

The Seahawks will most likely be without Kenneth Walker, the leading candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Without a run game, their offense just isn’t as good.

I’ll take the Panthers to cover the spread here.

PICK: Panthers (+4 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)

Pick Via FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

The Panthers’ offense has struggled massively when they cannot run the ball. If this unit can’t achieve balance, they’re destined to fail.

Against above-average run defenses, they are 1-4 and are averaging just 14 PPG.

Regardless of year-to-date rank, let’s look at in-game results:

There were five games since Week 3 when the Panthers saw their RBs post a success rate less than 35% on early-down runs:

Week 4: 25% success – L 16-26 vs. ARI
Week 5: 33% success – L 15-37 vs. SF
Week 6: 33% success – L 10-24 vs. LAR
Week 9: 29% success – L 21-42 vs. CIN
Week 11: 23% success – L 3-13 vs. BAL

But in games where the Panthers saw their RBs hit at least 35% success, they fared far better:

Week 3: 53% success – W 22-14 vs. NO
Week 7: 36% success – W 21-3 vs. TB
Week 8: 53% success – L 34-37 vs. ATL
Week 10: 40% success – W 25-15 vs. ATL
Week 12: 39% success – W 23-10 vs. DEN

That’s a 4-1 record, and averaging 25 PPG.

All of these games, with the lone exception of the Bucs, came against below-average run defenses.

The Seahawks have a below-average run defense.

In fact, their bottom-10 ranking of 24th puts them as the easiest run defense the Panthers will have faced since Week 2 other than the Falcons.

The Seahawks’ run defense has been atrocious the last two weeks.

They allowed Raiders’ RBs to run for 45% success and +0.22 EPA/att on early downs two weeks ago.

Last week, they allowed Rams’ RBs to run for 47% success and +0.05 EPA/att on early downs.

The Seahawks’ run defense is viewed better than it truly is because they’ve played the fourth-easiest schedule of run offenses in the NFL.

In their last three games, the Seahawks’ run defense has allowed:

164 rushing yards to a dormant Tampa Bay backfield
273 yards rushing to Las Vegas and Josh Jacobs
60 yards and a pair of touchdowns to Cam Akers

Seattle will likely be forced into stacking the box to slow down the run game. That’s what they had to resort to playing the Rams last week, and over the last three games, they’ve used 8-plus man boxes on 41 snaps.

And QBs have seen a ton of success when they pass the ball instead of run against those 8-plus man boxes of Seattle.

In fact, Seattle’s pass defense ranks No. 31 on passes when they have 8-plus box defenders, allowing +0.53 EPA/att and 10.0 YPA.

The Panthers are worth a bet at anything above 4 points.

PICK: Panthers (+4 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)

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