With Week 15 of the NFL looming, many contenders are facing serious questions heading into the final stretch of the season.
Can the Dallas Cowboys erase recent history and make their first deep playoff run this century? After a lackluster win against the Texans, soundly defeating a resilient Jaguars squad would calm some of the Dallas faithful.
Also, will my Jets break their league-leading playoff drought? Their game against the Detroit Lions is oozing with playoff implications for both squads.
So without further ado, here are my best bets for Week 15 (with odds via FOX Bet).
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Lions at Jets (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
The Lions are hot, having won five of six, with a close loss to the Bills being the only blemish. And two of those wins came outside — in Chicago and New York, with temperatures in the 30s for both games. This is an entirely different situation, as the Jets are a significantly better defense than both of them.
The top reason you should wait to bet on this game is the status of Quinnen Williams, arguably the best defensive tackle in the NFL. Jared Goff has historically struggled outdoors with pressure up the middle, and it’s a perfect storm if Williams can play.
New York is ninth in the NFL in net yards per play; the Lions are 22nd. The Jets outgained the Vikings by 200 yards in a narrow loss two weeks ago; they held Buffalo to its fewest yards this season in a close loss last week.
I like my Jets in this spot.
PICK: Jets (-105 moneyline at FOX Bet) to win outright
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Steelers at Panthers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
After Carolina won in Seattle, it now controls its own playoff destiny.
The Panthers have covered four straight, riding a powerful running game and an aggressive defense to take down some below-average opponents (Atlanta, Denver, Seattle).
Is Pittsburgh good? Well, QB Kenny Pickett suffered his second concussion in the last six weeks, meaning we may not see him here, and Mitchell Trubisky will get the start, but should Sam Darnold be favored over anyone?
Sure, the Steelers got pushed around by the Baltimore ground game last week (215 yards, 5.1 ypc), and Carolina wants to do just that, as evidenced by its rushing totals in its last three wins: 223, 185, and 232.
I can’t back Trubisky here, but I’m reluctant to put money on Sam Darnold against T.J. Watt and a very good defense. Instead, I’ll look for a slow start.
PICK: Under 19 1st half points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
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Cowboys at Jaguars (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)
After the Cowboys looked listless against Houston, and the Jags pounded the Titans on the road, this number went from -6 on the look ahead to -4.
Is Dallas … undervalued? They have an elite defense that should have their way with the Jacksonville offensive line. Trevor Lawrence wasn’t sacked against banged-up Tennessee but the Ravens, Colts and Eagles got him four times apiece; KC sacked him five. A week after Micah Parsons was dominated by Laremy Tunsil, expect a bounce-back performance against Cam Robinson.
The Jaguars offense was so impressive against Tennessee that they went from 19th to 16th in net yards per play. Dallas is fifth. You could wait on this one, as it may hit four points later in the week, but give me the Cowboys.
PICK: Cowboys (-4.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4.5 points
Patriots at Raiders (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)
In the first matchup between Bill Belichick and his longtime assistant, Josh McDaniels, how can you not take Belichick?
The spot is not great for New England — the Raiders have extra time to prepare, having played last Thursday, and the Patriots are staying in Arizona after having played the Cardinals rather than traveling back to Boston. We just saw Miami try that after the 49ers game, and they produced their worst offensive performance of the season, for what it’s worth.
The Raiders are in historically bad territory, having blown four double-digit halftime leads. The Patriots are by no means good (12th in overall efficiency), but the Raiders are 31st in defense, and this feels like a coaching mismatch.
PICK: Patriots (-1.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 1.5 points
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Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
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