NFL Week 14 betting notes: 49ers, Brock Purdy favored over Tom Brady

1. Tom Brady and Tampa Bay are 3.5-point underdogs against rookie seventh-round pick Brock Purdy and San Francisco. Brady is 23-6 straight up, 14-15 against the spread versus rookie quarterbacks in his career. This is just the second time Brady has been an underdog against a rookie QB. Brock Purdy is the first rookie QB drafted in the seventh round or later (or undrafted) to be favored in his first career start since Brad Goebel (PHI) in 1991 against Tampa Bay (3-point favorites; lost 14-13).

2. Despite being 5-7 this season, Detroit is favored over 10-2 Minnesota. This would be the 10th time in the Super Bowl era in which a team with an .800 winning percentage is an underdog to a team with a losing record in December or January. The previous nine teams with the .800 winning percentage went 0-9 straight up and against the spread. The average margin was 18.9 points. Eight of the previous nine instances were in Week 16 or 17 games where it was known teams would rest starters.

3. Dallas is a 17-point favorite against Houston this week. It would be the largest spread in the NFL this season. The previous high was 15.5 (Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Rams).

4. Denver games are 11-1 to the under, the best under percentage in the league. In the past 30 seasons, just this Denver team, 2003 Buffalo and 1997 Washington have gone under in 11 of their first 12 games. Eight straight Denver games have gone under. The total for its week 14 game against Kansas City is 43.

Season notes

• Best ATS teams: New York Giants, Cincinnati (both 9-3)

• Worst ATS team: Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay (3-8-1)

• Best average cover margin: Dallas (+8.6)

• Worst average cover margin: Los Angeles (-6.6)

• Underdogs: 99-85-6 ATS

• Home teams: 97-92-6 ATS

• Home underdogs: 41-31-3 ATS

• 7+ point favorites: 19-26-1 ATS

• 10+ point favorites: 8-11 ATS

• Unders: 108-85-2

Las Vegas Raiders (-6, 44) at Los Angeles Rams, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

• Las Vegas is 7-17 ATS as a favorite since the start of the 2019 season, the third-worst cover percentage as a favorite over that span.

• Las Vegas is 0-3 ATS as a road favorite this season.

• Los Angeles has covered five consecutive games against Las Vegas.

• Los Angeles is 2-9 ATS against AFC opponents since the start of the 2020 season.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 45.5) at New York Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• New York is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season. The seven cover wins as an underdog are the most in the NFL. The Giants are 5-2-1 outright as an underdog, their most outright wins as an underdog since 1997 (6-3-1).

• New York is 9-3 ATS this season, tied with Cincinnati for the best cover percentage in the NFL.

• Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS on the road this season (all as favorites).

• Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

• New York is 1-4 ATS following a straight-up loss this season.

• Each of New York’s last four games against AFC teams have gone under the total.

• Buffalo unders are 9-3 this season.

• Buffalo is 9-2-1 ATS in the month of December or later since the start of the 2020 season.

• Cincinnati is 9-3 ATS this season, tied with the Giants for the best cover percentage in the NFL.

• Cincinnati is 9-1 ATS in its past 10 games.

• Cincinnati has covered 11 of its past 15 games against Cleveland.

• Cleveland is 3-0 ATS against divisional opponents this season.

• Dallas has the best cover margin in the NFL this season (+8.6).

• The 17-point spread would be the largest in an NFL game this season.

• Houston has failed to cover in each of its past four games.

• Detroit has covered five consecutive games, the longest active cover streak in the NFL. Detroit hasn’t covered in six straight games within a single season since Weeks 4-10 of the 2010 season.

• Detroit is 19-10 ATS under Dan Campbell, tied for the second-best mark in that span.

• Detroit is 3-0 ATS against the NFC North this season.

• Minnesota has failed to cover five of its past six as an underdog.

play

Tyler Fulghum explains why bettors should take the over for the Vikings vs. the Lions.

• Tennessee is 6-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season.

• Tennessee is 8-2 ATS over its past 10 games.

• Tennessee has covered eight of its past 10 games against Jacksonville.

• Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS on the road this season.

• Baltimore: 15-2-1 ATS in regular-season games as an underdog since the start of the 2018 season (10-9 outright); best coverage pct (.882) in league and second-best overall win percentage (Tennessee: 20-15).

• Baltimore: 9-7 ATS in games without Lamar Jackson starting since drafting him in 2018. (5-2 ATS in games not started by Joe Flacco; 3-1 by Tyler Huntley, 2-0 by Robert Griffin III, 0-1 by Josh Johnson)

• Pittsburgh: 2-8 ATS in past 10 games as home favorite dating back to December 2020 (5-4-1 outright).

• Pittsburgh: 7-1-1 ATS in past nine games with a spread between +3 and -3.

• Russell Wilson is 5-0 ATS in his career as at least a 7.5-point underdog (1-4 SU). He has only been an 8-point underdog twice.

• Denver games are 11-1 to the under, the highest under percentage in the league. In the past 30 seasons, only 2003 Buffalo and 1997 Washington have gone under in 11 of their first 12 games. Eight straight Denver games have gone under.

• Kansas City has covered nine of its past 12 against Denver.

• Kansas City is 1-7 ATS against conference opponents this season.

play

Doug Kezirian is taking the under in the Chiefs-Broncos matchup, as it has hit in 10 of 11 Denver games this season.

• Brady is 23-6 SU, 14-15 ATS against rookie quarterbacks in his career.

• This is just the second time Brady has been an underdog against a rookie QB.

• Tampa Bay has gone under in all five road games this season.

• Tampa Bay is 10-2 to the under this season.

• Each of Tampa Bay’s eight games against the NFC have gone under the total this season.

• Tampa Bay is 3-8-1 ATS this season, tied with Los Angeles for the worst cover percentage in the NFL.

• Carolina is 0-4 ATS following a bye week over the past five seasons.

• Each of the past four meetings between these teams has gone over the total.

• Carolina has failed to cover each of its past five games in the month of December or later.

• Seattle has failed to cover each of its past three games in December.

• Miami is 0-3 ATS following a straight-up loss this season.

• Tua Tagovailoa is 18-12-1 ATS in his career (10-7 ATS as favorite).

• Twelve of the past 14 meetings between Miami and Los Angeles went under the total.

• Five of Miami’s six road games have gone over the total this season.

play

Joe Fortenbaugh explains why he is going to lay the three with the Dolphins over the Chargers.

• New England is 7-3-1 ATS after a loss since the start of last season (3-1-1 ATS this season). Bill Belichick is 62-34-1 ATS following a loss with New England.

• New England is 4-1 ATS against Arizona under Bill Belichick.

• Arizona has gone over in six consecutive games, tied with Chicago for the longest active over streak in the NFL.

• Arizona is 11-4 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.

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