NFL Week 16 betting notes: Falling temperatures lead to falling totals

Totals have fallen to historic lows this week amid cold and windy weather around the country. Seven games have totals in the 30s, the most in any week since Week 17 of 2011. The New Orleans-Cleveland total of 32 is on track to be the lowest total in any game since 2008. The average over/under this week is 41.59, on track to be the second-lowest in any week in the last decade

Detroit, Cincinnati and San Francisco have been three of the hottest teams against the spread (ATS).

Cincinnati is 11-1 ATS in its past 12 games with six straight covers, which is Cincinnati’s longest cover streak since 1993. Its longest single-season cover streak in the Super Bowl era is seven straight, set in 1970. Cincinnati is 11-3 ATS on the season, the best mark in the league.

Detroit has covered seven straight games, its longest single-season cover streak in the Super Bowl era. Detroit has won and covered three straight road games. Detroit has never won and covered four straight road games in the Super Bowl era.

San Francisco has covered five straight games, its longest cover streak since 2013 (five). Its last longer cover streak was an eight-game streak in 2011, the team’s longest single-season streak in the Super Bowl era.

On the other side, Tampa Bay is a league-worst 3-10-1 ATS despite starting 2-0 ATS. Tom Brady looks to buck that trend, as well as his recent prime-time struggles. Brady is 2-12 ATS with Tampa Bay in prime-time games including playoffs.

However, the big betting story this week involves the Dallas-Philadelphia game. Jalen Hurts’ questionable status has caused that line to move from Dallas -2 to Dallas -5.

Season Results

Underdogs: 9-6-1 ATS last week (116-96-7 this season – .547)

Road teams: 8-7-1 ATS last week (107-110-7 this season)

Overs: 8-8 last week (tied for most overs in any week this season); 100-122-2 this season (.450)

Best ATS team: Cincinnati (11-3 ATS; 11-1 in last 12)

Worst ATS team: Tampa Bay (3-10-1 ATS; 1-10-1 in last 12)

Best over teams: Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit, Minnesota (all 9-5)

Best under team: Denver (11-3 despite 2 straight overs)

Win totals at stake

Potential overs: Atlanta (5), Jacksonville (6.5), Washington (7.5), Miami (8.5), Baltimore (9.5), San Francisco (10), Dallas (10.5), Buffalo (11.5)

Potential unders: Chicago (6), Cleveland (8.5), Las Vegas (8.5)

• New York is 5-0 ATS against teams that currently have losing records.

• New York is 5-1 ATS after a loss this season.

• Trevor Lawrence is 4-11 ATS in his career on the road.

• Six of Jacksonville’s seven road games have gone over the total.

• Zach Wilson’s past six starts have gone under the total.

• Jacksonville has been an underdog in 59 straight road games against teams .500 or better entering this week.

• If Jacksonville closes as a favorite, it is 0-7 outright and ATS in its past seven games as a favorite. A loss as a favorite would tie the third-longest outright losing streak as a favorite in the Super Bowl era.

• Jacksonville is the only active NFL franchise to never play a game that closed pick ’em.

• Seattle is 0-5 ATS in its past five games. Kansas City is 0-3 ATS in its past three games.

• Seattle is 48-30-2 ATS as an underdog under Pete Carroll (.615).

• Kansas City’s past four home games have gone under the total.

• Kansas City is 6-15 ATS in its past 21 games when laying at least seven points including playoffs (since 2020 Week 9).

• All seven Buffalo road games have gone under the total.

• Buffalo is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight games

• Chicago is 8-17 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season, including 7-13 ATS in Justin Fields starts.

• Chicago has not been a nine-point home underdog since 2014 vs Detroit (+9). It was an 8.5-point home underdog last week against Philadelphia. The last time Chicago was an eight-point underdog in consecutive home games was in 1975.

• Baltimore is 0-5 ATS as a home favorite this season (2-9 ATS since start of last season). Baltimore is 0-5-1 ATS at home this season.

• Baltimore is 6-15 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season (3-7 ATS this season; 1-6 ATS in past seven games).

• Unders are 9-2 in Baltimore’s past 11 games. Baltimore’s past five home games have gone under the total.

• Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its past five games. Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its past eight games.

• The over/under is 32 as of Tuesday. The last game with an over/under of 32 or below came in Week 16 of 2008 (Cincinnati beat Cleveland 14-0 with total of 31.5). The last total of 31 or below was in the 2005 Divisional Playoffs (Carolina beat Chicago 29-21 with a total of 30). Three of the past five totals of 33 or below involved Cleveland.

• New Orleans’ last total of 32.5 or below was in 1993 against the New York Giants (29.5).

• New Orleans is 1-5 ATS on the road this season. Cleveland has won and covered three straight home games.

• Four straight Cleveland games have gone under the total including all three with Deshaun Watson under center. Six of New Orleans’ past seven games have gone under the total including three straight.

• Cleveland is 10-17 ATS as a favorite under Kevin Stefanski.

• Cleveland is 4-1 ATS against teams with losing records this season.

• Tennessee is 6-1 ATS against teams with losing records this season.

• Houston is 16-7 ATS against Tennessee since 2011 (5-4 ATS vs Mike Vrabel).

• Tennessee is 4-0 ATS on fewer than six days rest since the start of last season.

• Houston is 0-4-1 ATS this season when getting fewer than seven points.

• Tennessee is 12-18-1 ATS when laying at least three points under Mike Vrabel including playoffs (0-2 outright in that role this season).

• Unders in division games are 43-27-1 this season (.614).

• Detroit has covered seven straight games, its longest single-season cover streak in the Super Bowl era.

• Detroit has won and covered three straight road games. Detroit has never won and covered four straight road games in the Super Bowl era.

• Detroit is 6-1 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3.

• Detroit has been an underdog in 17 straight road games, tied with the New York Giants for the longest active streak entering this week.

• Carolina has covered its past three games as an underdog (5-1 ATS in past six games as underdog).

• Cincinnati is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games with six straight covers. It is Cincinnati’s longest cover streak since 1993 (six). Its longest single-season cover streak in the Super Bowl era is seven straight (1970). Cincinnati is 11-3 ATS on the season, the best mark in the league.

• New England is 0-4 outright and ATS against teams with winning records this season.

• New England has covered six of the past seven meetings against Cincinnati. Bill Belichick is 14-6 ATS in his career against Cincinnati (6-4 ATS with New England).

• New England is 15-7 ATS as a home underdog under Bill Belichick. However, it is 3-4 ATS since Tom Brady left, including 0-2 ATS this season.

• New England is 14-3 ATS on fewer than six days rest under Belichick. Overall, Belichick is 32-19 ATS on short rest as New England’s head coach.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5), Saturday at 1 ET

• New York is 8-2 ATS as an underdog this season (6-3-1 outright). One more underdog win would tie the team’s most in a single season in the Super Bowl era (1981: 7-4).

• New York has covered nine straight games on short rest, while Daniel Jones is 8-2 ATS in his career on short rest.

• New York is 5-1 ATS on the road this season.

• New York has been an underdog in 17 straight road games, tied with Detroit for the longest active streak entering this week (Detroit is favored this week).

• Overs are 9-3 in Minnesota’s past 12 games, including four straight games going over.

• San Francisco has covered five straight games, its longest cover streak since 2013 (five).

• After starting his career 3-16-2 ATS as a home favorite, Kyle Shanahan is 8-1 ATS in his past nine games as a home favorite (5-1 ATS this season).

• San Francisco is 8-2 ATS in conference games this season.

• San Francisco is 4-1 ATS when laying at least seven points since the start of last season (2-1 ATS this season).

• This line was Dallas -2 on Tuesday before news of Jalen Hurts’ shoulder injury.

• Four straight Dallas games have gone over the total. Four straight Dallas home games have gone over the total.

• Dallas is 3-0 ATS after a loss this season with all three games going under. Dallas is 7-1 ATS after a loss since the start of last season.

• Dallas is 15-7 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season (5-4 ATS this season).

• Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS this season against teams with winning records.

• Teams with records of 9-1 or better that are getting at least three points are 4-16-4 ATS and 2-22 outright in the Super Bowl era. The last time it happened was in Week 17 of 2020 (Kansas City lost by 17 as a 6.5-point home underdog against Atlanta).

• Each of the past four meetings went over the total.

• Dallas is 17-5 ATS in conference games since the start of last season.

• Unders in division games are 43-27-1 this season (.614).

• Las Vegas has covered five straight meetings. Mike Tomlin is 1-6 ATS and 2-5 outright against Las Vegas despite being favored in each game.

• Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its past five games.

• Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS against teams with losing records this season.

• Pittsburgh is 2-7 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season (2-10 ATS in last 12 games including playoffs).

• Road underdogs are 19-12 ATS in prime-time games this season.

• Tua Tagovailoa is 12-4 ATS in his career at home.

• Green Bay is 12-4 ATS as an underdog under Matt LaFleur (3-2 ATS this season), including 9-2 ATS when getting at least three points and 7-1 ATS when getting more than three points.

• Miami is 1-4 outright and ATS after a loss this season.

• The total is 36.5 as of Tuesday afternoon. The lowest total entering this week is 36.5, though the New Orleans-Cleveland game is currently 32.

• Los Angeles is 0-5 outright and 0-4-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 this season. Denver is 5-12 ATS in those games since the start of last season.

• Denver is 1-4 ATS and 2-3 outright as a favorite this season (won and covered last week vs Arizona).

• Two straight Denver games have gone over the total after 11 of the first 12 games went under. Denver’s past five road games have gone under the total.

• Denver has covered three straight games after starting the season after starting the season 3-8 ATS.

• Tampa Bay is 1-10-1 ATS in its past 12 games including 0-4 ATS in its last four games. Overall, Tampa Bay is a league-worst 3-10-1 ATS this season.

• Tom Brady is 2-15 ATS in his past 17 prime-time games including playoffs. He is 2-12 ATS with Tampa Bay in prime-time games including playoffs.

• Tampa Bay is 0-6-1 ATS after a loss this season.

• Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS when laying at least five points this season (1-2 SU).

• Unders are 8-0 this season when Tampa Bay plays a team with a losing record.

• Arizona is 1-12 outright and 3-10 ATS in its past 13 home games (1-7 outright, 3-5 ATS this season).

• Overs are 4-1 in Indianapolis games under Jeff Saturday, including three straight overs.

• Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in prime-time games this season (0-1 ATS as favorite).

• Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in prime-time games since 2020 (0-2 ATS in last two).

• Prime-time unders are 27-19-1 this season (.587).

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