Welcome to the 2022 Bowl season!
Over the next four weeks, we’ll be treated to 43 bowl games, and it all ends on January 9 with the College Football Playoff national championship.
Bowl season is an unpredictable time for each team because of transfer players, athletes who have opted out of playing and roster/coaching changes. All of this undoubtedly impacts each squad’s motivation and preparation. So please be aware that this movement happens daily, sometimes right up until kickoff! Keep that in mind as you place your wagers.
Now, without further ado, here are my best bets for the 2022 college football bowl season (odds via FOX Bet).
Las Vegas Bowl
Florida vs. No. 14 Oregon State (2:30 p.m. ET Saturday, Dec. 17, ESPN)
The Las Vegas Bowl has traditionally been a spot where a Pac-12 team has struggled. This game used to feature an underachieving Pac-12 squad, like it did in 2006. That year, my Oregon Ducks played against the best team in the Mountain West conference, a team that was uber motivated to beat a Pac-12 program. However, with the Vegas Bowl affiliation changing after the pandemic, the advantage in this game favors the Pac-12 school.
Oregon State is 9-3, and the Beavers are playing for their first 10-win season since 2006. There’s no better opportunity for them to make that happen than against an SEC team. Just look at their roster for the bowl game. So far, no one has opted to sit, so you can tell they want to win. Yes, Oregon State is dealing with injuries at running back and cornerback, but otherwise, they are a healthy group.
Oregon State won nine games with its rushing attack and pass defense, and both are underrated nationally. The Beavers rank 12th in rushing success rate while the Gators defense is 98th in stopping the run. The Gators are even worse in short-yardage rushing defense. That Beavers offense should have its way.
The Florida Gators 2022 campaign, the first under new coach Billy Napier, was up and down. They had quality wins against Utah and South Carolina, but they also had brutal losses like the one against Vanderbilt. Additionally, the Gators will be missing about 30 players for this game because of opt-outs and transfers. In short, Florida is a team looking ahead to the 2023 season.
Florida QB Anthony Richardson is not playing in this game, and he was the Gators third-leading rusher. Instead, Gators are starting Jack Miller III, who’s making his first start against an imposing Beavers defense. Oregon State’s defense held USC and the Washington Huskies — two of the best offenses in the country- to 17 points each. Florida’s only chance to move the ball in this game will be on the ground, where the Beavers can be had.
I’m going to take Oregon State to cover this game, even with the large number of 10.5. It’s prudent to either buy the half point down to 10 or wait until kickoff to see if this number drops off the 10.5. Either way, the Beavers are more motivated, healthier and posses schematic advantages. Also, they stunk in their bowl game last season, so I expect the opposite performance this time.
PICK: Oregon State (-10.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 10.5 points
College Football Bowl Season: What’s the future look like for bowl games
Joel Klatt breaks down what the future of college bowl season will look like moving forward with the college football playoff expansion on the horizon.
LA Bowl
Fresno State vs. Washington State (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, Dec. 17, ABC)
The Pac-12 has had a strong season, and this should be one game where that shows.
The conference already has three teams with 10 wins, and another three teams are hoping to get their 10th wins in bowl season. The Cougars were not one of those 10-win squads, but they did play a schedule full of them. Wazzu played five conference teams ranked in the top 22 of SP+, but they lost all of those games.
However, the Cougars are a team built with defense, and I hope that defense plays well against Fresno State’s high-powered passing attack. Even though they were forced to use multiple quarterbacks, the Bulldogs were 18th in passing success rate. Now they finally have a healthy starter in Jake Haener.
The Bulldogs also achieved this success without a quality offensive line. This is where the Cougars have a huge advantage. Their defensive line ranks 22nd in havoc rate. So they will bring it Saturday, even without their best defender on the roster in Daiyan Henley, who opted out.
On the flip side, the Fresno Bulldogs’ defense does not match up well against the Cougars. Granted, Washington State’s offense was hit or miss this season behind Cam Ward, but Fresno State has not played an offense ranked better than 92nd in conference play! Ward is an outstanding athlete, and he increasingly used his legs to create plays as the season progressed. This will be a game where Cam should have monster numbers using that strategy. By default, the Cougars should be able to move the ball.
I’ll take the Cougars to cover, and I also believe they win outright.
PICK: Washington State (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)
Holiday Bowl Preview: Will No. 15 Oregon step up against North Carolina?
FOX Sports’ lead college football analyst Joel Klatt previews the Holiday Bowl between the No. 15 Oregon Ducks and the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Holiday Bowl
No. 15 Oregon vs. North Carolina (8 p.m. ET Wednesday, Dec. 28, FOX and FOX Sports app)
The Holiday bowl has always felt like the bowl game that officially kicks off the bulk of the bowl season. It’s often the first game featuring ranked Power Five conference teams, although this season North Carolina is an unranked, nine-win win team after losing to Clemson in the ACC title game. Oregon arrives in San Diego with nine wins, too, and an awful loss to rival Oregon State to end the regular season. Both teams are looking to end the season on a high note with a victory in this game.
The bright spots for both these squads are their offenses. Oregon’s offense is excellent through the air and on the ground. Quarterback Bo Nix completed 71% of his passes for 3,389 yards, with 27 touchdowns to six interceptions. He added 504 rushing yards with 14 touchdowns via his feet. Those numbers include playing the final two games of the season with a bum leg. He’s healthy now and ready to roll. The Oregon rushing attack is fantastic and has one of the best offensive lines in the country. The Ducks rank first in rushing success rate, and they have allowed the least amount of sacks in the country.
Pat Narduzzi says UNC QB Drake Maye was offered $5M in NIL by two schools
The transfer portal is heating up. North Carolina QB Drake Maye was offered $5 million in NIL by two SEC programs (currently not in the portal).
North Carolina’s offense is ranked 20th in points per drive, but the Tar Heels are led primarily by their quarterback Drake Maye. Maye threw for 4,115 yards and was the team’s leading rusher by nearly 150 yards. The Tar Heels’ offensive line was not good, and Maye had to make magic to get anything done. The best Tar Heel receiver this season was Josh Downs. He racked up more than a thousand yards receiving, but Downs is not playing on Wednesday night. Maye will need to find another target to help the squad score.
The defenses for these two teams have some things in common, too. Neither one is any good. And both are without their best players. The Ducks’ defense is 102nd in points per drive and will be without their top corner, linebacker and defensive end. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels’ defense ranks 112th in points per drive, and they are missing their top three secondary players. It’s easy to see this game going Over with the Tar Heels covering the 14.5-point spread.
However, I’m not quite sure of the motivation for this Tar Heel team. They’ve lost three straight while only scoring 18 points per game. They are traveling across the country to a stadium that will be packed with mostly Oregon fans in San Diego. The Ducks want this game badly after blowing their last game against the Beavers. Bo Nix is healthy and has announced his return for 2023.
Yes, Oregon is without their offensive coordinator who is now the head coach at Arizona State, but they know how to run the ball and use the air attack against this Tar Heel’s defense.
I’m taking the Ducks to score over 44.5 points in this game.
PICK: Oregon team total Over 44.5 points scored at FOX Bet
Alamo Bowl
No. 20 Texas vs. No. 12 Washington (9 p.m. ET Thursday, Dec. 30, ESPN)
I cannot believe this Oregon Duck is going to stand up for the Huskies, but I do not understand this line. Washington is going to beat Texas, but I’ll take the points if I’m getting them.
Except for one opt-out player, every Huskies impact player that has NFL potential will be playing. Washington has won six straight games and is scoring a ton of points. Washington put up 37 against Oregon, then scored 51 against the 18th ranked defense in Washington State. The Huskies rank second in points per drive and fourth in passing success rate. Texas’ defense is far better at stopping the run than the pass, but the Longhorns will be without some of their top defensive players. I think Washington can score for the most part in this game.
The Texas offense is very reliant on its rushing attack. Longhorns are missing 90% of that crew with Bijan Robinson opting to prepare for the NFL draft and his backup entering the portal. That means the offense will depend on the passing attack and on backs who have little game experience to get the ball moving. That is not how Texas wants to create offense.
This gives Washington an opportunity to get enough stops to win the game. I will take Washington plus the points in the Alamo Bowl.
PICK: Washington (+3.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)
Rose Bowl
No. 8 Utah vs. No. 11 Penn State (5 p.m. ET Monday, Jan. 2, ESPN)
I’d love to roll with a Pac-12 team in the Rose Bowl, but I can’t. Dalton Kincaid, the most impactful player for Utah, is not playing.
Kincaid is a potential first-round pick, and while he played with injuries this year, he led all tight ends in the country in receptions and yards. Dalton was targeted 96 times for the Utes, which was 14 targets more than the Utes best receiver. Without him in the lineup, this Utes offense will struggle to move the ball against a very good Penn State defense. Penn State’s defense ranks seventh in points per drive and 30th in explosive play rate. Utah’s offense has no explosive receiving option without Kincaid.
Utah’s defense is also missing an impact player, their best cornerback Clark Phillips. But the Utes should still be ready on defense. The Nittany Lions offense ranks 40th in points per drive, and they’re facing a Utes defense that ranks 29th in stopping opponents’ points.
I’m leaning toward the Nittany Lions covering since Kincaid is out. So it’s with much regret that I’m going against my conference and riding with Penn State here.
PICK: Penn State (+2.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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