It’s a busy time on the college football calendar.
The transfer portal is open and filled with more than 1,000 players. The early signing period for high school recruits is right around the corner. The coaching carousel continues to spin. Plus, we’re about to kick off a run of 42 bowl games in a 23-day span.
It’s an occasion that typically would make for one of the most wonderful times of the year as the season reaches its dénouement. Holiday festivities colliding with intersectional interludes between conferences that rarely see each other, what’s better than that?
Well, recently, quite a lot.
This isn’t the postseason your grandfather grew up with. It’s not even the one your parents are used to, nor even an older sibling. Heck, it’s borderline unrecognizable from what we saw just a handful of seasons ago.
Take the Music City Bowl, for example. Normally an appealing matchup between foes from the SEC and the Big Ten, this season’s matchup of Iowa and Kentucky features a projected over/under that is currently among the lowest ever recorded (hovering around 31.5) and even less than Saturday’s Army–Navy game between two option offenses.
NFL opt-outs have changed the equation, with Kentucky quarterback Will Levis and tailback Chris Rodriguez both bypassing the contest. Injuries like the one to Iowa signal-caller Spencer Petras add another layer. Toss in a rash of transfer portal defections, and both head coaches, their staffs, fan bases and anybody wanting to watch along at home have to be frustrated that this is where both the Hawkeyes and Wildcats have ended up.
The Music City Bowl foes are not alone.
Notre Dame will be without its quarterback, Drew Pyne, for the Gator Bowl. The Irish were 8-2 with Pyne, but the QB opted to enter the portal, while star tight end Michael Mayer is sitting out to get a jump on draft prep.
There will be no final tape on Anthony Richardson at Florida either, as the energy from the first Las Vegas Bowl meeting between Pac-12 and SEC opponents is dampened further.
North Carolina’s Drake Maye is good to go for the Holiday Bowl but will be without top target Josh Downs — and neither will get to test top Oregon corner Christian Gonzalez.
Even if this is just a series of exhibitions between teams from all over the nation designed largely to get in extra practice time with younger players, it’s becoming less and less interesting for all involved.
That’s why it’s no surprise that this bowl season very much looks like the last of its kind. The postseason has been dying bit by bit the last few years, which is why we’ve arrived at an inflection point that has prompted what should amount to a hefty reboot.
The driving force begins and ends with the College Football Playoff. The expansion to 12 teams starting in 2024 is set to have a cascading effect that will impact bowl games far beyond what is known now as the New Year’s Six.
At last week’s Intercollegiate Athletics Forum, much of the college football industry that gathered in Las Vegas had this very topic first and foremost on their minds.
“There’s many hours that remain that we have to work on with regards to expansion. We have to be thoughtful, but I’m really pleased and impressed with everybody in the room — there’s a focus,” said Big Ten Commissioner Kevin Warren, still exuberant over getting two teams into the current College Football Playoff setup this season. “People are energized. It’s the right thing to do. Our student-athletes will benefit from it, our incredible fans will. It will be good to put some of these finishing touches in place.”
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Expansion is in many ways a two-step process, with the first two editions of the 12-team tournament set to look potentially wildly different from the version that starts a fresh new contract come 2026. The most noticeable short-term change, beyond learning new quirks or seeing dozens more teams in the running late in the year, comes with first-round games taking place on campus and the top four conference champions getting a bye.
Logistical challenges are at the forefront of things to work through. If the new format had been in place during this most recent conference championship weekend, a team like Clemson could have gone from being on the road in tiny State College to hosting a game. Kansas State’s upset of TCU not only would have gotten the Wildcats into the field but earned them a home game in Manhattan two weeks later — likely on a weeknight and not a Saturday.
Just about everybody understands the amount of work that needs to be done and the decisions still to be made, many of which will be accelerated once the current bowl season starts to die down and some actual attention can be devoted to things that are most pressing.
“Obviously there’s the television piece of that, we need to work through elements of the bowl in the quarter and semifinals. We have adjustments with dates for the national championship games,” added SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey. “We also need to look big picture at the full year of college football and how we support healthy participation with the potential additional games. Not every team will play more games, but we have to be thinking about the game adapting.”
Changes on the horizon to the football calendar will start coming into focus as soon as next month. The how, and when, recruiting happens are up first. Conferences are expected to start providing feedback later this week on proposals ranging from limiting the number of days coaches are out on the road to changes to when players can even step on campus. Numerous coaches have complained about the cap in official visits becoming an issue when trying to balance high schoolers with the wave of transfers they’re recruiting out of the portal, too. That is set to end up on the chopping block as early as January’s NCAA Convention in San Antonio.
Running somewhat parallel are efforts to remake how the season unfurls. One entire conference is set to play games in Week 0 next season, in addition to those programs that have received waivers, or play at Hawaii. ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips has led the charge for calendar reform and believes the earlier start date — what is currently the week prior to the traditional Labor Day weekend kickoff — will have to be strongly considered starting in 2026 and beyond.
Some of that is to provide built-in opportunities for players to have more time off, and additional flexibility for teams and conferences when putting together their yearly slate of games. Some athletic directors are concerned about finals being impacted and the demands of the academic schedule. Holidays, already a no-go, aren’t going anywhere either.
The sport is also looking ahead to adjust for a new postseason order that will have to balance avoiding competition with NFL games on Saturdays in late December and a far more compressed window in which to fit your traditional bowl games as they avoid weekends when first-round/semifinal matchups take place.
“We have to acknowledge that the puzzle of putting together that 12-team playoff schedule is difficult,” noted FOX Sports Executive VP Mike Mulvihill. “There’s been a lot of talk that the expanded CFP would make what we now think of as Week 0 would become Week 1 of the regular season. I don’t think that’s a great thing for viewership.
“That’s lower TV usage, a lot of kids aren’t on campus yet. You’re really not really trading Week 1 for Week 0, you’re trading Thanksgiving for Week 0. That’s a tough trade to make in terms of TV audience.”
It’s becoming a tough trade for the audience in stadiums, too, as momentum continues to grow for the top four seeds to eventually host games on campus and not limit that opportunity to just those seeded 5-8 each season. Logistical challenges, like the number of available hotel rooms in certain college towns, have often been cited as an obstacle, but such a move would both further reward regular-season achievement and provide additional opportunities to showcase places like Camp Randall or the Coliseum in big-time games.
Then there’s the little issue of fans themselves needing to make a slew of road trips if they want to follow their team on a chase for the national championship. For some, that could include a conference championship at a neutral site, a first-round game on the road, two neutral-site bowl games, and then a title game that travels around the country on a rotating basis. Even teams with a bye are looking at four straight games in what are likely to be NFL stadiums over six or seven weeks.
Quarterfinals on campus will not be a possibility until 2026 at the earliest, but it has become much more likely to happen than it did six months ago as expansion discussions picked up steam during the fall.
Finally, what really could spark a noticeable change for bowl games outside the playoff ecosystem is the players themselves. While opt-outs and transfers have been a seemingly never-ending list this season, that could be on the verge of changing with next year’s cycle as NIL becomes much more of a thing.
There has been more open discussion about paying players to remain on the team for bowl games, and some organizations are already dabbling in it with activations set for later this month. The vagueness of some NCAA rules has slowed the process down from becoming more mainstream, but one bowl executive told FOX Sports that between sponsors or their game’s charitable endeavors, NIL payments are likely to take off next season.
That could mean better names, better teams, better matchups and even more anticipation for a magical time across college football as a fitting reward for making it from the hot summer months to this point on the calendar.
So soak up all the craziness of a random number generator that is bound to unfold over the next few weeks, because it looks increasingly like this bowl season is in for a rash of changes, and that it will be the last of its kind. Come next December (and beyond), the college football postseason is about to become a lot more interesting for all involved.
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Pre-Snap Reads
Bahamas Bowl: UAB vs. Miami (OH)
Friday, 11:30 a.m. ET
The Blazers are set to undergo a radical transformation under new coach Trent Dilfer, but do have the nation’s leading rusher, DeWayne McBride, who can help power them to victory over those from the land of MACtion.
Cure Bowl: Troy vs. UTSA
Friday, 3 p.m. ET
Roadrunners QB Frank Harris announced he was returning for a seventh (yes, seventh) season in 2023, but he’ll have a big issue with the salty Trojans defense in the only game matching two conference champions this postseason.
Fenway Bowl: Louisville vs. Cincinnati
Saturday, 11 a.m. ET
It would have been more interesting had former Cardinals/new Bearcats coach Scott Satterfield been in charge of either of these teams, but alas, UL sneaks out a victory in a wide-open game in the shadow of the Green Monster.
Las Vegas Bowl: Florida vs. No. 14 Oregon State
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Gators lost too many key contributors, and the Beavers will be up for this one to notch that 10th win. Nobody should use this game to make a referendum about the respective conferences.
LA Bowl: Fresno State vs. Washington State
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Kind of a bummer that this isn’t late at night because Jake Haener needs to be in prime time for the rest of the country one last time as he caps a fun back-and-forth between these two underrated programs on the West Coast.
LendingTree Bowl: Rice vs. Southern Miss
Saturday, 5:45 p.m. ET
It feels like the Golden Eagles should roll over the only 5-7 team going bowling. But upsets happen, and this seems like a game that’s ripe for something funky to happen.
New Mexico Bowl: SMU vs. BYU
Saturday, 2:15 p.m. ET
Defense might be optional in this one, as the Cougars pull away in the fourth quarter thanks to some late turnovers.
Frisco Bowl: North Texas vs. Boise State
Saturday, 9:15 p.m. ET
Opt for the team with an interim offensive coordinator over the one that just fired its coach and is unlikely to be motivated playing a short drive away from campus.
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Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.
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