Bettors win at sportsbooks thanks to Bills, Bengals; Money on TCU vs. Georgia

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

NFL Week 18 odds are, to borrow parlance from another gambling activity, a crap shoot. That goes for bookmakers and bettors alike.

You’ve got musical chairs going at quarterback for several teams. Plenty of key players sit out — rightly so — to avoid getting injured when far more important playoff games are ahead. And there are widely varying degrees of motivation on the final weekend.

We’ll sort it all out in the weekend recap of NFL betting, and touch on College Football Playoff championship game betting, as well.

Sign me up

Late Sunday afternoon in Las Vegas, as a pivotal Los Angeles Rams–Seattle Seahawks game was winding down, South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews took a couple of minutes to talk about what so far hadn’t been an ideal day behind the counter.

Andrews, one of the most respected oddsmakers in the country and a longtime veteran of the industry, sensed what Sunday could become when he arrived at work hours before the first games kicked off.

“I said first thing this morning, if I could sign up to break even today, I’d take it. Show me where to sign,” Andrews said.

With the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and Minnesota Vikings – all key favorites – winning and covering in the early games, bettors were off and running. Then, perhaps surprisingly, South Point customers came in strong on underdog Washington in a matchup that, at least pre-kick, was extremely important to Dallas.

But the Cowboys were never really in it, losing 26-6 as 7.5-point road favorites.

Then there was the Chargers–Broncos game, also playing out in the fourth quarter as Andrews surveyed the day. Los Angeles opened as a 3-point favorite, but the line closed Denver -6.5 – a 9.5-point swing. That’s because, as expected by kickoff, L.A. was locked into the AFC’s No. 5 playoff seed, so the expectation was that the Chargers wouldn’t go full bore.

“We just wanted it to not fall in the middle. But that’s a huge middle,” Andrews said of the gap between Chargers -3 and Broncos -6.5. “Denver by 3 is the worst of it.”

So, of course, Denver won 31-28. Chalk up another one for those of us on this side of the counter!

However, Andrews’ risk room saw the tide turn a bit when the New York Giants – hefty 17-point underdogs at kickoff — covered the number in a 22-16 road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Then on Sunday night, the underdog Detroit Lions beat the host Green Bay Packers 20-16.

“We wound up with a decent day. Way better than I expected,” Andrews said.

Everybody backs the Pack

Andrews’ shop wasn’t overwhelmed with Green Bay action, though there certainly was a fair amount. Elsewhere, however, it seemed like everybody was on Aaron Rodgers’ bandwagon, certain that the Packers would win and nab the NFC’s final playoff spot.

BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott watched as parlay/moneyline parlay liability grew throughout the day. Buffalo’s 35-23 win as an 8-point favorite against New England was key for the betting public. So, too, was Cincinnati’s 27-16 win over Baltimore, even though the Bengals fell short of covering the -11.5 closing number. Cincy’s win still kept alive those moneyline plays – in which a team just needs to win the game, not cover the point spread.

San Francisco romping past Arizona 38-13 as a 14.5-point favorite didn’t help Scott at all, nor did Seattle finding a way to beat the L.A. Rams 19-16 in overtime. It set up a monumental position for the Sunday night finale between Detroit and Green Bay.

“Packers parlay liability is enormous, on the moneyline and the spread,” Scott said pregame.

Then the Lions bailed out BetMGM and surely several other sportsbooks.

“BetMGM escaped a bleak day with the Lions’ tight win over the Pack. God bless Dan Campbell,” Scott said.

Added Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports for TwinSpires Sportsbook: “It was a great day. The Lions winning outright was the cherry on top. Everyone piled on Green Bay, knowing the Packers had to win.”

Tapping into TCU

Heading into the weekend, multiple sportsbooks noted that sizable underdog Texas Christian was taking the lion’s share of tickets and money in the College Football Playoff championship game odds market. And that’s on both the spread and the moneyline, with no shortage of folks wagering that the Horned Frogs’ Cinderella season ends with a national title.

At BetMGM, spread tickets are running 3-to-1 and spread dollars 2-to-1 on TCU, and the line shortened from Georgia -13.5 to -12.5 before inching up Sunday to -13.

Numbers are even more lopsided on the moneyline, at almost 9-to-1 tickets and 3-to-1 money on TCU. The Horned Frogs opened +400 on the moneyline – meaning a $100 bet would profit $400 if TCU wins the game – and they’re now +375.

“There is lopsided action on TCU to win the College Football Playoff,” BetMGM sports trader Christian Cipollini said. “The book currently needs Georgia to win.”

And again, BetMGM is hardly alone there. That said, the bulk of the money for big games generally comes in on game day. So we’ll see if that holds up as the hours draw closer to Monday’s 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff at L.A.’s SoFi Stadium.

Hotly contested contests

Circa Sports saw its high-dollar NFL regular-season football contests come to a close Sunday night. The Circa Survivor contest and Circa Million both operate solely in Nevada, though both draw entrants from across the country. Those entrants then either need to return to Vegas each week to make their picks or have a local proxy submit the plays.

Circa Survivor, with a $1,000 entry fee, garnered 6,133 entrants for a prize pool of $6.133 million. Heading into NFL Week 18, three entrants were still unbeaten at 19-0. Two of the three got to 20-0, with one contestant taking the Jaguars – who edged the Titans 20-16 on a fumble-return touchdown – and another finishing perfect by taking the Seahawks, who topped the Rams 19-16 in overtime.

Those two contestants each earned $3.06 million. The third contestant had the Colts at home against the Texans, who, with a loss, would secure the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. But Houston wasn’t down with losing, or the Colts are just awful. Indy lost 32-31 when, in the final minute, the Texans scored on a 28-yard TD pass on fourth-and-20, then went for and succeeded on a 2-point conversion.

It was a costly 2-point conversion, with that contestant losing out on $2 million in a three-way split of the prize pool.

The Circa Million, a point-spread contest in its fourth year – contestants put in five picks against the spread each week – literally came down to the final game, Lions vs. Packers. Two entries were tied with 60.5 points on the season. One contestant had Detroit +4.5 and the other Green Bay -4.5 on Sunday night.

With the Lions winning outright 20-16, that contestant snagged the $1 million first-place prize. Second place paid out $500,000.

Can TCU threaten Georgia in the National Title game?

Joel Klatt discussed the matchup between the TCU Horned Frogs vs. the Georgia Bulldogs.

I like big bets and I cannot lie

As noted in a FOX Sports article last week, Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale has the biggest bet going for the CFP championship game. In fact, he’s got a few going, totaling about $3 million. Half of it is in the form of a $1.5 million bet on TCU moneyline +370 at DraftKings.

If the Horned Frogs win, that bet would profit $5.55 million. So Mattress Mack has plenty on the line Monday night as the Houston furniture magnate hedges against a store promotion, per usual.

Caesars Sports noted a host of other big plays in the NFL over the weekend, including one bettor who threw down $1.125 million across four wagers:

$275,000 Chiefs -9 at Raiders (win)
$300,000 Saints -3 (-120) vs. Panthers (loss)
$275,000 Bengals -7 vs. Ravens (win)
$275,000 Colts -2.5 vs Texans (loss)

The bettor went 2-2 and finished $75,000 in the red.

Other big NFL plays at Caesars this week:

$330,000 Cardinals +14.5 at 49ers (loss)
$220,000 Lions +6 at Packers (win)
$110,000 Titans +6.5 at Jaguars (win)
$100,000 Titans +6 at Jaguars (win)

And we’ll wrap with a few bets that are much more relatable to us, at least in terms of dollars wagered. These bets were placed on exact regular-season win totals at Caesars:

$500 on Bears exactly three wins at 75/1. Chicago finishes 3-14, bettor pockets $37,500.
$115 on Rams – the defending Super Bowl champions – exactly five wins at 300/1. Bettor collects $34,500.
$500 on Packers exactly eight wins at 50/1. Bettor nets $27,500.

Here’s hoping some of you took some fliers like that in the regular season. Enjoy that CFP national championship game.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_V

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