Bills’ biggest issues to get back into Super Bowl contention

Stefon Diggs: “Want me to be OK with losing?”Does Josh Allen get a pass for his play vs. Bengals?

Henry McKenna

AFC East Reporter

There’s good news for Bills fans: Buffalo is going to be a playoff team in 2023.

That’s just what Josh Allen brings to the table. Plus, the Bills would have to really botch their upcoming offseason and season, and I can’t see them doing that given how solid coach Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane have been. No, the Bills are in business for the foreseeable future.

But a Super Bowl team? Well, that remains to be seen. Because while the Bills were the training-camp favorites this season, they couldn’t get past the divisional round for the second straight year. Buffalo simply hasn’t performed as well as it should in the playoffs. And so it’s fair to wonder how the heck the Bills can construct their team in a more sound fashion to better their chances for a championship appearance next year.

The Bills are headed into an offseason in which they are going to have a harder time assembling an elite roster. They will face no shortage of roadblocks. So let’s dive into what they’ll focus on this offseason to build a more complete squad.

Buffalo is already over the cap by about $8.5 million

The Bills can’t do a dang thing until they’re under the cap. Don’t panic, Buffalo fans. It’s actually not so bad to be in the red. The New Orleans Saints are roughly $60 million over the cap for 2023. So it could be a lot worse for Buffalo.

But to free up spending, the Bills will need to move money around. They can start by restructuring the contracts of Allen, Stefon Diggs, Von Miller and Tre’Davious White. Buffalo might also need to cut or trade some players. But there’s no reason to believe the Bills can’t get far enough under the cap to retain a few of their free agents and make one or two splash additions during the offseason.

The offensive coaching staff hasn’t elevated the talent

Despite the Bills’ cap issues, just about everyone anticipates they’ll add another receiver. After all, their pass-catchers not named Stefon Diggs had trouble performing at a high level this season. Frankly, everyone on the offense seemed to regress in 2022 without the oversight of former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who left last season to become head coach of the Giants.

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First-year OC Ken Dorsey wasn’t the picture of continuity the Bills hoped he’d be when they promoted him. Dorsey led a fairly plain offense and never found ways to get running back James Cook, tight end Dawson Knox or receiver Gabe Davis fully involved in the offense. And we haven’t even gotten to the offensive line, which also underperformed, particularly in the second half of the season and postseason.

So it might be time for the Bills to consider whether Dorsey showed enough progress as a coordinator to justify keeping him around in 2023.

Buffalo needs its 2022 class to rise above its middling run of drafts

Beane drafted Josh Allen, which makes him a safe GM for quite some time. And I’m not saying that Beane should be on the hot seat. But he has had a handful of drafts that were … fine.

Buffalo’s 2022 class might end up being one of Beane’s best. That class featured Cook, cornerbacks Kaiir Elam and Christian Benford and receiver Khalil Shakir. They need to step up, because Beane has missed on a few crucial picks in recent drafts. Most notably, the Bills aren’t getting enough from edges Boogie Basham (second round) and A.J. Epenesa (second round). They have also moved on from third-rounder Zack Moss and second-rounder Cody Ford.

Looking back at the past five years? Tackle Spencer Brown (third round), safety Damar Hamlin (sixth), receiver Gabe Davis (fourth), kicker Tyler Bass (sixth), cornerback Dane Jackson (seventh), tight end Knox (third) and cornerback Taron Johnson (fourth) are Bean’s best finds. That’s a solid group, but it’s not incredible.

Bean’s early run in the draft with Buffalo helped put the building blocks in place for this championship window. He joined the team in 2017 and landed White, Matt Milano and Dion Dawkins before adding Allen, Tremaine Edmunds, Harrison Phillips and Taron Johnson in 2018. And then Beane acquired Diggs in a huge trade in 2020.

But the GM has gotten a bit colder. And a big return from the 2022 class could help the Bills with their financial situation, where they’re not spending big to fill gaps due to inconsistent drafts.

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They are likely to lose a handful of defensive starters in free agency

As mentioned, the Bills are short on cap space. So let’s take a look at the important defensive players slated to enter free agency:

Safety Jordan Poyer
LB Tremaine Edmunds
EDGE Shaq Lawson
CB Dane Jackson

Poyer might be at the end of his run, given his age (32) and the injuries he sustained this season. It’s likely that Buffalo lets Lawson and Jackson walk. Edmunds would make perfect sense for an extension if the Bills had the money for it. And as mentioned, they can free up cap space. But they will have to do it by borrowing from future years. So how much money do they want to steal from future teams to improve the 2023 squad? How much do they want to sacrifice in 2024?

Because while Edmunds is a terrific and prolific player, the Bills need to shore up a few positions on the offensive side of the ball. In a perfect world, Buffalo extends Edmunds and adds a true WR2. It’s just a matter of whether Beane is willing to leverage the team’s future to maximize the present-day roster.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @McKennAnalysis.