After the best round of semifinals in the history of the College Football Playoff, we have a fantastic matchup in the title game between the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs and the Texas Christian Horned Frogs!
Georgia is favored by 12.5 points at FOX Bet, and for good reason.
Let’s dive into my three reasons why I expect the Bulldogs to be back-to-back champions and, more importantly, cover the spread.
Can Georgia be back-to-back National Champions?
Joel Klatt discussed the Georgia Bulldogs in the National Championship against the TCU Horned Frogs.
1. The Stars Are Out
Stars matter, and Georgia has far more of them. Football can often be complicated, or at least we make it feel that way. However, college football can be simple in that regard. The team with the better players usually ends up winning. I know, not rocket science. In this case, Georgia has the better players.
The Bulldogs are better on both the offensive and defensive lines. Georgia has better skill players and better talent on the back end of the defense. TCU has a more dynamic quarterback in that Max Duggan can move the ball with his legs, but Bennett throws a better ball. Now, having better players does not help with luck or even guarantee you will win a game without effort and making mistakes. But, if Georgia plays their best, and TCU plays its best, Georgia has advantages all over the field.
TCU vs. Georgia – David vs. Goliath?
FOX Sports’ RJ Young previews the National Championship game between TCU and Georgia
2. Back To Normal?
A return to the mean. Georgia’s defense played its worst game of the season. Ohio State’s passing attack, including their pass protection, was outstanding, as C.J. Stroud was able to move around the field, find open receivers and make splash plays. I would expect Georgia’s defense to return to the mean of this season, especially against TCU’s offense which is far better at rushing than passing. Duggan’s ability to move in the pocket is a concern for the Bulldogs, but I think they can live with that being the Horned Frogs’ offense.
TCU also will come back down to earth because their win against Michigan is hard to duplicate. TCU scored 51 total points, with 14 of those coming on defensive scores. It was able to score twice on interception returns which is unlikely to continue against Georgia. TCU allowed 45 points to Michigan, and there’s a fair argument Michigan could/should have scored in the 60s, as it had two drives end inside the 2-yard line with zero points. As noted above, Michigan had two of its offensive chances end in TCU points. That’s four drives where the Wolverines didn’t score in a game where they only punted once. Georgia is not making those mistakes that Michigan did. I think we see the Horned Frogs’ luck average out.
3. The Trenches
Georgia has the best combination of offensive and defensive line play in the country. The Bulldogs’ offensive line was one of two finalists for the Joe Moore Award. Georgia entered the playoffs ranked 13th in rushing success rate and first in pressure rate. TCU’s defense ranks 69th in rushing success rate and 118th in pressure rate. TCU’s rushing attack is 42nd, and they are facing a third-ranked Georgia rush defense. Georgia’s defensive line is ranked fifth in line yards allowed, sixth in power success rate and first in opportunity rate. TCU’s offensive line is ranked 53rd in pressure rate, and while Georgia needs to generate pressure via pressure, they have all the advantages in the trenches.
Teams that have this much of an advantage in the trenches very rarely lose. Give me the Bulldogs to cover. Lay the points.
PICK: Georgia (-12.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 12.5 points
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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