NFL Championship Sunday is upon us.
Our best bets are 43-43-1, and I’m rolling with three plays over the weekend. This space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These are the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
Joe Burrow is undefeated vs. Patrick Mahomes, what would another win mean for the Bengals QB?
Nick Wright, Kevin Wildes and Chris Broussard discuss Patrick Mahomes return to Kansas City Chiefs practice days after suffering a high ankle sprain.
Cincinnati Bengals (14-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-3), 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
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The betting line won’t sit still in this one.
Kansas City opened as a 2-point favorite on Sunday night and respected bettors immediately drove Cincinnati to a 2- and 2.5-point favorite. That line always felt a little off considering Cincinnati closed +6 at Buffalo, but Cincinnati was favored at Kansas City.
Strange, huh?
Sources close to the Chiefs are telling me that Patrick Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain isn’t as serious as it was made out to be, which explains other professional bettors then blasting K.C. from +2 all the way to -1.
It’s been a true battle between sharps on both sides.
The elephant in the room is that Kansas City has the worst defense of the four teams remaining in the postseason. Its defensive line is far from elite and Joe Burrow has eaten this secondary for lunch multiple times. So the Chiefs have the weakest defense and unhealthiest quarterback. Hmmm.
I also refuse to go against my +750 Bengals future.
PICK: Bengals (+1.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points (or win outright)
Why Nick Wright is riding with Brock Purdy & 49ers
There have only been four rookie quarterbacks to have ever played in a conference championship game and they have combined to go 0-4.
San Francisco 49ers (15-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (15-3), 3 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App
I’ve already given you three reasons to bet the Niners.
They are certainly no strangers to this stage, and it’s their third NFC Championship appearance over the last four seasons. When healthy, San Francisco is the cream of the conference crop and boy, are they healthy.
Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk highlight a deep, talented group of playmakers and rookie quarterback Brock Purdy has a rock-star offensive line that gives him plenty of time to move through his progressions. And the Niners utilize so many different formations that defenses rarely know what’s coming next.
Philadelphia was damn impressive on Saturday against New York [a 38-7 Eagles victory] but San Francisco is a valiant step up in competition. People won’t be too happy with me in the City of Brotherly Love, but I think the Niners are the more complete team.
PICK: 49ers (+2.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
I expect San Francisco’s defense to keep Hurts in the pocket.
Everybody knows the NFL MVP finalist is at his best when he’s moving about the cabin. Designed runs and broken plays have been a staple in Hurts’ breakout season and you must believe the Niners’ D will aim to make him one-dimensional.
They have an outstanding pass rusher in All-Pro Nick Bosa and possess what I believe is the best linebacking core in the NFL. And it’s extremely difficult to run on DeMeco Ryans’ group [88 yards allowed per game] because their linemen are strong in the trenches and their linebackers cover a ton of space.
There’s a very solid chance that Hurts throws the ball around 35 times — maybe more if Philadelphia trails late — and I think San Francisco’s pressure will force Hurts into a bad decision at some point during the game.
It only takes one.
PICK: Jalen Hurts to throw an interception (+105 at FOX Bet)
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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