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BigPaulSports > Blog > NFL > Every NFL team’s record vs. the spread: Final edition
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Every NFL team’s record vs. the spread: Final edition

BigP
Last updated: 2023/01/10 at 12:10 PM
BigP Published January 10, 2023
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Every NFL team's record vs. the spread: Final edition
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Contents
FavoritesFavored by eight or moreFavored by two or lessPoints Per Drive (last two minutes of regulation)
  • Kyle SoppeESPN

The 2022 regular season is now in the books, and what a regular season it was! Before we get to the overall ATS standings for the season, let’s discuss the elephant in the room: underdogs.

Favorites

Year ATS Cover Margin Overs
2018-22 46.20% -0.65 47.90%
2013-17 50.30% 0.12 49.20%

Not all games are created equal, and parity is what has dragged down these numbers. Heavy favorites have been fine, but the teams with the perceived edge in those coin-flip type of games have struggled:

Favored by eight or more

Year ATS Cover Margin
2018-22 50.20% 0.29
2013-17 48.60% -0.05

Favored by two or less

Year ATS Cover Margin
2018-22 43.80% -2.46
2013-17 53.30% -0.95

Why? There is no one answer and plenty of gray area, but my working theory is that the ability to score late in games has something to do with it:

Points Per Drive (last two minutes of regulation)

Year Average
2018-22 2.23
2013-17 1.95

Now, those sort of drives obviously occur in games with higher spreads, too, but logic would state that teams are more likely to be motivated to score late in those games with tight spreads than the big spread games. That’s a rise of 14.4% and something that figures to continue to trend up with the talented quarterbacks NFL teams have under center and their ability to score in a hurry.

Will books adjust?

The fact that underdog tickets continue to cash makes me think sportsbooks aren’t that worried about it. The public simply loves to bet the favorites, so why tweak the line making process if casual bettors insist on betting a side that has been trending down of late? Only time will tell, but this past regular season was another fun one, and the playoffs promise to be just as chaotic. The final ATS team-by-team standings for the 2022 regular season:

Team ATS Win ATS Loss ATS Push Over Under O/U Push
New York Giants 13 4 0 7 10 0
Cincinnati Bengals 12 4 0 6 9 1
Detroit Lions 12 5 0 10 7 0
Los Angeles Chargers 11 5 1 7 9 1
San Francisco 49ers 11 6 0 9 8 0
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 6 1 7 10 0
Dallas Cowboys 10 7 0 9 8 0
Tennessee Titans 9 7 1 5 12 0
Atlanta Falcons 9 8 0 7 10 0
Carolina Panthers 9 8 0 8 9 0
Miami Dolphins 9 8 0 8 9 0
Buffalo Bills 7 7 2 6 10 0
Cleveland Browns 8 8 1 8 8 1
Washington Commanders 8 8 1 5 12 0
Houston Texans 8 8 1 7 10 0
Green Bay Packers 8 9 0 8 9 0
Arizona Cardinals 8 9 0 9 7 1
Jacksonville Jaguars 8 9 0 8 9 0
Las Vegas Raiders 8 9 0 8 8 1
Philadelphia Eagles 8 9 0 10 7 0
New York Jets 8 9 0 5 12 0
Baltimore Ravens 7 9 1 5 12 0
New England Patriots 7 9 1 8 9 0
Minnesota Vikings 7 9 1 11 6 0
Kansas City Chiefs 7 10 0 8 9 0
New Orleans Saints 7 10 0 6 11 0
Seattle Seahawks 7 10 0 8 9 0
Denver Broncos 7 10 0 6 11 0
Los Angeles Rams 6 10 1 6 10 1
Indianapolis Colts 6 11 0 7 10 0
Chicago Bears 5 11 1 10 7 0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 12 1 6 11 0

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BigP January 10, 2023
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