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Kyle SoppeESPN
The 2022 regular season is now in the books, and what a regular season it was! Before we get to the overall ATS standings for the season, let’s discuss the elephant in the room: underdogs.
Not all games are created equal, and parity is what has dragged down these numbers. Heavy favorites have been fine, but the teams with the perceived edge in those coin-flip type of games have struggled:
Why? There is no one answer and plenty of gray area, but my working theory is that the ability to score late in games has something to do with it:
Now, those sort of drives obviously occur in games with higher spreads, too, but logic would state that teams are more likely to be motivated to score late in those games with tight spreads than the big spread games. That’s a rise of 14.4% and something that figures to continue to trend up with the talented quarterbacks NFL teams have under center and their ability to score in a hurry.
Will books adjust?
The fact that underdog tickets continue to cash makes me think sportsbooks aren’t that worried about it. The public simply loves to bet the favorites, so why tweak the line making process if casual bettors insist on betting a side that has been trending down of late? Only time will tell, but this past regular season was another fun one, and the playoffs promise to be just as chaotic. The final ATS team-by-team standings for the 2022 regular season:
