Jason McIntyre
Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is always my favorite weekend because of the matchups. Like last weekend’s wild-card games, we can all anticipate some really compelling games ahead.
From a betting perspective, you can really find some edges if you do your homework. I researched so you don’t have to. I’ve got a few prop bets and other wagers that will hopefully help us all cash in big this weekend.
Let’s get into my best bets for the divisional round, with odds via FOX Bet.
Do Lawrence’s Jags have any chance of beating Mahomes’ Chiefs?
Breaking down the big games.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, NBC)
When these teams faced off the last time, Christian Kirk had a massive day. He caught nine passes for 105 yards and two touchdowns with 12 targets. Last week against the Chargers, Kirk had 14 targets in a game the Jaguars trailed 27-0. Jacksonville has trailed at halftime in its last two games — and both were win-or-go-home games. I expect the same here.
Also, remember that Kansas City struggles really badly defending top receivers.
PICK: Christian Kirk Over 66.5 receiving yards
For another player prop, I’m going with Kansas City’s Travis Kelce Under 81.5 yards.
This isn’t because the Jaguars rank 32nd in the NFL defending tight ends or because they were lit up by Chargers tight end Gerald Everett last week (6-109-1). Expect a lot of two-high safety looks from the Jaguars, who want to take away the big play that crushed them in the earlier meeting between these two squads.
K.C. averaged 7.8 yards per play in the regular season matchup, and Kelce caught six passes for 81 yards and a touchdown in that game. One catch went for 46 yards. The Chiefs’ offensive weapons are all healthy this time around, so expect Andy Reid to spread the ball around.
PICK: Travis Kelce Under 81.5 receiving yards
Herd Hierarchy: Cowboys, Eagles lead the way in Colin’s Top Divisional Round teams
Colin Cowherd reveals his final Herd Hierarchy of the season.
Two-team, 6-point Teaser at FOX Bet
The Jaguars are coming off two exhausting games in a row at home, as they needed late rallies to win both games. The Chiefs are rested, and their skill position players, along with the secondary, are as healthy as they’ve been all season. Getting K.C. at home under a field goal off a bye week is a tremendous value.
The Eagles were banged up down the stretch, and the bye week had the effect of a staggered boxer barely getting to the end of the round. With Lane Johnson returning and perhaps defensive end Josh Sweat, the Eagles are almost undervalued here because what the betting public saw last was unimpressive. Bettors also saw the Giants play well, but this is a case of recency bias. Not knowing if Jalen Hurts is 100 percent makes a bet on the Eagles risky, so teasing them down through the key numbers of 3 and 7 is the better bet.
Chiefs teased from -8.5 to -2.5
Eagles teased from -7.5 to -1.5
“This year, we have a real live shot at winning it all.” — Skip on his Cowboys
Can the Cowboys win it all?
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports app)
Who has the advantage when the 49ers have the ball: Kyle Shanahan or Dallas DC Dan Quinn? The two were on staff together in Atlanta when the Falcons made a run to the Super Bowl and have only met once. That meeting was in last year’s playoff game.
In that game, San Francisco raced to leads of 13-0 and 23-7 in the third quarter, and that was on the strength of a powerful ground attack (38-169). A Jimmy Garoppolo interception opened the door for a Dallas comeback. But up until that point in the game, Dallas could only muster 184 yards of total offense. Now, the 49ers have added Christian McCaffrey to the backfield. The Cowboys’ defense is rated second in efficiency by Football Outsiders, but let’s look at the offenses it has faced recently: a broken Tampa Bay (16th), Washington with its rookie QB (28th), Tennessee with Josh Dobbs’ in his first career start (21st) and the Eagles with backup QB Gardner Minshew (third).
Philly moved the ball easily in Dallas, racking up 6.4 YPP. But turnovers in the second half gave Dallas short fields and scoring drives of 31, 31 and 13 yards. Turnover luck has been on the Cowboys’ side all season, as it has a league-high 33 takeaways. The 49ers ranked 30th in giveaways.
Dallas will find tough sledding against the best linebacking group in the NFL, making life difficult for Tony Pollard and Dalton Schultz. This means Dak Prescott will have to lean heavily on CeeDee Lamb. He had one catch for 21 yards on five targets in last year’s meeting. My biggest concern for the 49ers is that defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans is interviewing with four teams this week for a coaching job, and his focus might be elsewhere.
Ultimately, 49ers will roll.
PICK: 49ers (-3.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3.5 points
Are Josh Allen’s turnovers a reason to be nervous headed into AFC Divisional round?
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (3 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
It was weird seeing Josh Allen only run four times for 20 yards against the Dolphins last week. In the season finale against the Patriots, he kept throwing it rather than tucking and running (nine carries, 16 yards). But if you look at the most important games of the season — in real nail-biters — the Bills lean heavily on Allen and his 6-foot-5, 245-pound frame to carry the team. He had 10-77 in the 32-29 win over Miami; 10-78 in a difficult Thanksgiving game against Detroit. He rushed for 86 yards in the loss to the Jets and had 84 yards against the Vikings. Allen was third in the NFL in interceptions, and there’s a chance this confusing Bengals defense will force Allen into mistakes.
The fact he took seven sacks last week is mildly alarming. Makes you wonder if he’s hurt.
In what should be a close game, Buffalo’s best offense is with the ball in Josh Allen’s hands, running for first downs, so give me his rushing prop to go over the number.
PICK: Josh Allen Over 45.5 rushing yards
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
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