Divisional weekend for the NFL playoffs is the best action the sport has to offer. We have the four division winners from the AFC, then three NFC East squads, plus the juggernaut 49ers team.
Here are my favorite wagers for these four wonderful games (all odds via FOX Bet).
Jaguars shock Chargers by erasing a 27-0 deficit
Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars came back from 27 points down to beat the Los Angeles Chargers 31-30 on Saturday.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, NBC)
The Chiefs have been outstanding at moving the ball and scoring points in their first playoff games of each postseason with coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes. This is a home game for them, and they’re facing an opponent that won’t be good enough to slow down their offense.
The Chiefs scored 31 points against the Colts in the 2018 season playoffs, then famously scored 51 against the Texans in 2019. In 2020, K.C. scored only 22 points against the Browns, but remember, Mahomes got hurt in the third quarter and the Chiefs did not score after he left the game. Finally, the Chiefs scored 42 against the Steelers last season in the wild-card round.
This season, the Chiefs rank first in offensive DVOA, first in offensive EPA, first in scoring and second in third down conversion rate. Jacksonville’s defense finished the regular season ranked 26th in defensive DVOA and 29th on third down. Additionally, the Jaguars’ defense was 24th in red zone touchdown percentage. These teams faced each other in Week 10, and in that matchup, Kansas City only scored 27 points in a B-minus performance. However, I expect the Chiefs to put up a ton of points in this matchup.
Jaguars coach Doug Pederson said this week that he understands points need to be scored in this game. This means he will have an aggressive game plan. This also means the Chiefs will have to match that aggressiveness by scoring points of their own.
PICK: Over 52.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
Jalen Hurts’ shoulder still an issue?
Jalen Hurts is no longer on the injury list and he’s expected to play for the Philadelphia Eagles against the New York Giants.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports app)
Maybe I’m being a simpleton here, but this one doesn’t feel all that complicated.
The Giants are a fantastic story. They are what people love about sports — the underdog story. Daniel Jones was counted out, and now he’s on the verge of getting paid. With an underwhelming roster and with injuries, New York battled through to secure a wild-card spot and ultimately, a win against the Vikings. The G-Men are well-coached, they don’t beat themselves, and they rarely make crippling mistakes.
However …
… Philadelphia is the superior team by far. The Eagles finished the season on a downward trend because of the Jalen Hurts injury and other injuries to impact players. But with the extra week of rest, we should see a healthy and rejuvenated quarterback in Hurts. Philly finished the season ranked third on offense and sixth on defense, while the Giants finished 10th on offense and 29th on defense. Eagles also have a big advantage when it comes to special teams efficiency.
The Eagles will also be able to take advantage of the Giants weaknesses at receiver and offensive line while neutralizing the best of the Giants — their interior defensive linemen. Philadelphia will probably be without right tackle Lane Johnson, but I’d worry far more about that when the team suits up against the 49ers.
The Eagles will handle business in a big way.
PICK: Eagles (-7.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7.5 points
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Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (3 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
I’m very glad we got this matchup, although I do have sympathy for Bengals fans who believe this game should be at a neutral site.
I was very high on the Bengals heading into the postseason and believed they were the best team in the AFC. One game should not change that; however, I am wavering a bit after their showing against the Ravens.
The Bengals lost another offensive lineman and are now down three starting big boys on their line. I’ve never seen an offense able to function as well without a good offensive line quite like the Bengals. However, this Bills defense will thrive off getting pressure on Joe Burrow. Their pass rush isn’t as good without Von Miller, who was signed specifically for these games, but it’s good enough to get after Burrow. When Cincy’s Jonah Williams went out Sunday night, Baltimore’s pass defense played much better. As a matter of fact, in the second half without Williams last week, the Bengals had four offensive drives, three punts and one score. This week, Cincinnati faces a Bills defense that ranks ninth in passing DVOA and Pro Football Focus ranks their pass rush sixth in the NFL. I believe the Bengals will struggle to score points in Buffalo for all these reasons
The Bills offense is second in the NFL in scoring, and wagering against them to score might be a mistake. But the Bengals defense can shut down the Bills if Josh Allen is going to turn the ball over at the rate he’s going. The Bills are 31st in turnovers, and in the last four games, Allen has thrown five interceptions and fumbled the ball six times. The Bengals defense is 12th in passing DVOA and seventh in passing coverage defense. The Bills offensive line is bottom third in the league in both run and pass blocking. Know that this is a break-glass offensive game for the Bills, which means more rushing attempts for Allen. More rushing attempts mean a more controlled tempo and more of the clock running.
It’s also worth noting the weather for this game. Yes, it might snow, but impacting the game more than the snow will be the wind. Expect the wind to be whipping around the stadium.
I’m taking the Under in this game.
PICK: Under 48.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
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Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports app)
This will be a brawl in the trenches and I cannot wait. While much of the attention when it comes to the Niners offense has focused on their rookie quarterback and all the fantastic explosive offensive weapons, the heartbeat of the offense is their line.
Outside of Trent Williams, their line isn’t especially talented, but the guys play well together and understand their assignments. They stay ahead of the chains, which keeps them out of stressful pass protection situations. This Cowboys defensive front is outstanding and other than against Williams, they have the advantage. It doesn’t mean the 49ers can’t scheme up success or score points, but it will be more difficult than usual.
On the other side of the ball, the 49ers defensive line is going to eat. You will find no bigger fan of the Cowboys offensive line over the last seven years than me, but they are at a disadvantage in this game. Nick Bosa vs. either Smith (Tyron, Tyler) is a mismatch. The young Smith at left tackle (Tyler) is not quite ready for the speed and intensity that Bosa brings, and the elder Smith (Tyron) is playing out of a position at right tackle. Arik Armstead and Charles Omenihu inside have the advantage over everyone but Zack Martin.
For these reasons, I believe this game will go under the number.
PICK: Under 45.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @GeoffSchwartz.
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