The Jacksonville Jaguars will travel to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC divisional round matchup.
Jacksonville is coming off an incredible comeback win over the Chargers on Super Wild Card weekend. The Jags rallied from a 27-0 deficit to earn the 31-30 victory over the visiting Bolts. Los Angeles’ meltdown made way for Duval to make the third-biggest comeback in NFL postseason history.
While the Jags were making history, the conference’s No. 1 seed, the Chiefs, were at home resting.
Which squad gets a tally in the win column to advance to the conference championship round — the comeback kids or the top seed?
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Jaguars-Chiefs game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under, insights and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet).
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Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-3), 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, NBC
Point spread: Chiefs -8.5 (Chiefs favored to win by more than 8.5 points, otherwise Jaguars cover)
Moneyline: Chiefs -455 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12.20 total); Jaguars +280 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $38 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 52.5 points scored by both teams combined
Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:
The Chiefs have been outstanding at moving the ball and scoring points in their first playoff games of each postseason with coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes. This is a home game for them, and they’re facing an opponent that won’t be good enough to slow down their offense.
The Chiefs scored 31 points against the Colts in the 2018 season playoffs, then famously scored 51 against the Texans in 2019. In 2020, K.C. scored only 22 points against the Browns, but remember, Mahomes got hurt in the third quarter and the Chiefs did not score after he left the game. Finally, the Chiefs scored 42 against the Steelers last season in the wild-card round.
This season, the Chiefs rank first in offensive DVOA, first in offensive EPA, first in scoring and second in third down conversion rate. Jacksonville’s defense finished the regular season ranked 26th in defensive DVOA and 29th on third down. Additionally, the Jaguars’ defense was 24th in red zone touchdown percentage. These teams faced each other in Week 10, and in that matchup, Kansas City only scored 27 points in a B-minus performance. However, I expect the Chiefs to put up a ton of points in this matchup.
Jaguars coach Doug Pederson said this week that he understands points need to be scored in this game. This means he will have an aggressive game plan. This also means the Chiefs will have to match that aggressiveness by scoring points of their own.
PICK: Over 52.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
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