Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
With AFC and NFC Championship Game odds on the board, one thing is becoming alarmingly clear: Football season is almost over, and NFL betting opportunities are waning. If that’s not enough to pique your interest, remember that next season is a long way away. Oh, and then there’s the whole Patrick Mahomes injury saga, too.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ meeting with the Cincinnati Bengals is getting a boatload of betting attention, thanks to all the Mahomes news, speculation and commentary. AFC Championship odds have already fluctuated wildly this week.
And there could be more fluctuation to come. Let’s dig into a bowl of NFL conference championship betting nuggets.
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Bettors — both sharp players and the hordes of public and recreational customers — have been eager to get money down on the Bengals-Chiefs matchup, well before the weekend.
“Tremendous handle and action on this game already. There are sharp opinions on both sides of the total and the side,” WynnBet senior trader John Manica said. “We are still waiting for definite news on Mahomes, even though he is listed as probable. Honestly, Mahomes is likely to start. How effective he will be is the ultimate question.”
As with every other sportsbook, WynnBet has moved the point spread around quite a bit. Late Sunday night, the Chiefs opened -1, but by Monday afternoon, the number jumped the fence to Bengals -1.5. By early Tuesday afternoon, Cincy was up to -2.5. But that seemed to be the resistance point because by later Tuesday afternoon, the Bengals receded to -1.5.
By Wednesday evening, with Mahomes reportedly a full participant in practice, WynnBet had Bengals-Chiefs at pick ‘em.
FOX Bet currently has the Chiefs as the favorites again, sitting at -1 as of Thursday morning.
“We took several limit wagers ($10,000) on the Bengals +1 and pick,” Manica said Wednesday evening of the earliest action. “Today, it was just the opposite. We have taken several limit wagers on the Chiefs at +1.5 and +1, taking us to pick. If Mahomes is ruled out, which I consider a very low likelihood, then the line will see extreme movement. I expect this game to have opinions on both sides all week, unless concerning news comes out about Mahomes.”
Manica said the total opened at 48 and drew respected early wagers at 48 and 47.5, taking it down to 47. Resistance then showed with action on the Over, but not enough to move it off 47 yet.
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Opinionated Oddsmaker
There’s nothing better than an oddsmaker who has an opinion and isn’t afraid to voice it. Rex Beyers, a veteran Vegas oddsmaker who’s now the head of wagering at PlayUp US, is just that type of oddsmaker.
And he’s not sold on the Kansas City Chiefs at all. He’s booking AFC Championship odds so as to need the Bengals. The most notable indication of that came Wednesday.
“We had a sharp group in Colorado that took Chiefs +1.5 (-109), and we went straight to Chiefs -1 (-111). We went from having the best price on the Chiefs to having the best price on the Bengals in about four minutes [Wednesday],” Beyers said. “I think the Bengals are still the right side. They beat the Chiefs last year in this game, and the Bengals are a better team now than they were last year. I think Cincinnati is a superior team, great against the number.”
Indeed, the Bengals are not only 14-4 straight up (SU), but also 14-4 against the spread (ATS) this season. Cincy is on a 10-game win streak, going 8-2 ATS in that stretch, including a 27-24 win over K.C. as a 2.5-point home underdog in Week 13. And again, there’s the Bengals’ 27-24 overtime win in last year’s AFC title game that they got as 7-point road underdogs.
“And K.C.’s quarterback is compromised this year, where he wasn’t last year,” Beyers said of Mahomes’ status. “I can’t make a case for K.C. being the favorite. For me, the Bengals at close to -3 is my number.”
To be clear, that’s Beyers number based on how he rates Cincinnati, not the number he has posted on PlayUp’s odds board, which again is now at Chiefs -1.
“We got hit two to three times on the Chiefs,” Beyers said of sharp Kansas City action. “We need the Bengals for a good number, and I have no problem with that.”
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The Sharp Side
In our weekly check-in with a sharp Vegas bettor, he got by far the best of the number in the NFC Championship odds market. This was no surprise.
“I played the Eagles at pick as soon as they won against the Giants,” he said of a number that went up Saturday night before Sunday’s Cowboys–49ers game officially set the other half of the NFC title matchup.
Some sportsbooks will do that, posting odds for a potential matchup to generate early action. In this instance, after Philly’s win, odds went up for the two possible NFC title matchups: 49ers-Eagles and Cowboys-Eagles. The professional bettor leaped on the Eagles.
“I like San Francisco a bunch, just not in this game,” the bettor said of Sunday’s 3 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX. “Philadelphia’s offensive line is too good, and the Eagles’ offense is the best in the NFL. Plus, the Eagles at home are a juggernaut. Trust them to get to the Super Bowl.”
Beyers isn’t quite as certain of that and, in fact, is booking this game to need the Niners. Midweek, Philadelphia is a 2.5-point home favorite.
“My personal opinion is that the Niners have been the best team in the NFL. I don’t think the Eagles are that good,” Beyers said. “The Eagles have done a good job of coaching up Jalen Hurts, but I just think there’s a class difference.”
Beyers likened it to horse racing. He feels San Francisco has run far more graded stakes races this season, generally facing better competition than Philadelphia. That said, he’s concerned about 49ers rookie QB Brock Purdy in a very hostile environment.
“Does the QB have the stones to put up with the Eagles’ fans?” Beyers queried before noting he anticipates this line shortening between now and Sunday. “There’s no shot of this going to Eagles -3. I can’t see it going up. I think there’ll be 49ers money at some point.”
You can watch the big Niners-Eagles matchup on FOX and the FOX Sports App.
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More San Fran-Philly
Over at WynnBet, Manica noted the total is more intriguing at this point. The Niners-Eagles total opened at 45.5, and, WynnBet drew a notable four-figure play on the Over.
“The market quickly moved up to 46, where we took two-way action,” Manica said. “The market jumped up again [Wednesday] to 46.5, and we moved accordingly after taking a few dime ($1,000) wagers. As of right now, the Over looks like the sharp play, but when [betting] limits increase as the week goes on, we could see a different scenario.”
As for the spread, WynnBet has been painted to Eagles -2.5 so far, sitting at -2.5 (-114) midweek.
“We have moved the juice in favor of Philadelphia, as the majority of bets and risk has come in on the Eagles so far,” Manica said before echoing his oddsmaking peer Beyers on this matchup. “I expect we will hear from San Francisco bettors eventually, as this spread is unlikely to get to the key number of 3.”
Mental Notes
It’s always worth remembering, even amidst all the Bengals-Chiefs hullabaloo already, that the overwhelming majority of money on NFL games comes in on the weekend. And the large majority of that overwhelming majority comes in on game day itself, leading up to kickoff.
Plus, as Manica alluded to above, betting limits are low early in the week and gradually grow as Sunday approaches. So bigger bets will start to flow, as well.
“These games are going to be heavily wagered on, and as limits go up at sportsbooks throughout the week, the risk can change drastically,” he said, noting his aforementioned comments on WynnBet’s positions could get a big makeover by Sunday. “This is where we are at currently, which could be very different when it is all said and done.”
To that point, Manica added that as an oddsmaker, you can’t afford to stray much from the consensus odds in NFL markets. What happens if you do stray too far?
“You will see a limit wager almost immediately on the other side. You know you’re going to get a bet,” Manica said. “The sharps are still holding cards, and so are we. Smaller subtle moves are needed to control risk early in the week until the gloves come off at max limits on Sunday.”
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I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
No surprise, the wildly popular Bengals-Chiefs game — which kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday — has drawn some of the largest reported plays so far this week. Kicking it off Monday at Caesars Sports was a $220,000 Bengals +1 wager.
Then on Tuesday at Caesars, a trio of big bets came in, all on the then-underdog Chiefs:
- $190,000 Chiefs +2.5 vs. Bengals
- $165,000 Chiefs +2.5 vs. Bengals
- $210,000 Chiefs moneyline +110 vs. Bengals
There are plenty of sizable Super Bowl futures tickets still alive, too. We’ll save those for the next two weeks. On NFC championship futures, one Caesars customer has piled on a few times:
- $100,000 Eagles +180
- $100,000 Eagles +165
- $100,000 Eagles +160
So if Philly beats San Francisco on Sunday, that bettor stands to profit $505,000. Other noteworthy bets on conference championship futures at Caesars:
- $100,000 49ers +500
- $100,000 Chiefs +190/$50,000 Chiefs +240, from the same bettor
- $15,000 on Bengals +1000
- $7,000 on Bengals +2000
Even that $7,000 wager is way out of my ZIP code. So as you enjoy betting on NFL conference championship odds this weekend, remember to keep it reasonable. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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