The final week of the NFL regular season is upon us and the College Football Playoff national championship will serve as an exclamation point to a busy weekend of football betting.
Our best bets (40-34-1) are in the green, and I’m rolling with four plays over the weekend. This space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These are the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Oddsmakers are extremely high on the Jaguars right now.
Legendary Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White has Jacksonville rated as the eighth-highest team in the NFL. Only the Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers are higher in his system.
The Jags have proven it on the field, too. They beat the Baltimore Ravens (with Lamar Jackson) and Dallas at home and the New York Giants and Tennessee on the road. And they’re doing it thanks to an offense that is averaging just shy of 30 points per game over the last six contests.
Tennessee is down to its third quarterback (Josh Dobbs), its offensive line is one of the worst in the league and Jacksonville should load the box against star running back Derrick Henry. The Titans are in trouble if they fall behind early.
Lay the points.
PICK: Jaguars (-6 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6 points
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Seahawks need a win to keep their playoff dream alive.
Respected money blasted Seattle -3 earlier this week and the market is currently all the way out to Seattle -6. I certainly don’t love laying the worst of the number, but does Los Angeles even care about this game?
The Rams followed up last season’s world championship with a pitiful season. Star players Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp have been on the shelf for weeks, the offensive line can’t block anybody and the defense looks a lot different with future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald out of the lineup.
It’s also fair to wonder if Sean McVay’s heart is still in it. The 36-year-old head coaching wizard reportedly contemplated retirement after winning Super Bowl LVI and rumors are swirling again about him exploring other opportunities after the curtain closes on Sunday.
Seattle has every incentive to play hard for 60 minutes, while most Los Angeles players are probably finalizing their offseason vacations.
I don’t love the number, but I dig the situation.
PICK: Seahawks (-6 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6 points
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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Ready for Davis Mills against Sam Ehlinger?
Both teams are basically starting backup quarterbacks and it ia worth reminding that Jonathan Taylor and Dameon Pierce are out for the season. These are two “Under” teams – they’re a combined 20-12 to the “Under” – and it’s tough envisioning lots of fireworks given the lack of offensive talent.
There’s also a very good chance Houston plays possum on Sunday. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that after watching college quarterbacks Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud light it up on New Year’s Eve, the Texans got obliterated 31-3 by Jacksonville on New Year’s Day. It’s almost like management reminded everybody what’s at stake in the final games.
The Texans are so close to the No. 1 overall pick they can taste it.
Don’t overthink it.
PICK: Under 38 total points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
Georgia Bulldogs vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Let me start by admitting that I bet against TCU last week.
I still can’t believe Jim Harbaugh called the “Philly Special” at the TCU two-yard line after Michigan bullied its way down the field on the opening drive. That decision unraveled the Wolverines’ early game plan and they never really recovered until the second half.
Obviously, the Frogs deserve all the credit in the world – and then some – for reaching this point. But the buck stops here.
Georgia’s combination of skill and speed will be too much for TCU to handle for four quarters. This is an experienced bunch that’s loaded with NFL talent all over the field. Also, let’s not underestimate how TCU had basically everything go its way against Michigan and the Frogs barely escaped.
This game gives me serious 2013 national title game vibes when Alabama shut out Notre Dame in the first half en route to a 42-14 curb stomping.
PICK: Georgia (-12.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 12 points
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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