Super Wild Card weekend is upon us.
We’ve got 12 teams playing six games over three days. And I’ve got some best bets that will hopefully win us all some cash this first weekend of NFL playoffs.
Let’s dive into my best bets (odds via FOX Bet).
Bills dethroned, Chiefs rise & 49ers deemed ‘juggernauts’ in Nick’s NFL Tiers
Nick crowns the Kansas City Chiefs the favorites, San Francisco 49ers juggernauts and slide the Buffalo Bills down after their Week 18 win over the New England Patriots.
Dolphins at Bills (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
On Monday night in the College Football Playoff National Championship, Georgia was favored by 13 against TCU — roughly the same number as Buffalo is favored against Miami. While many knew deep down that Georgia was going to smoke TCU, lots of people pretended TCU had a chance. Georgia won 65-7 in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score. In Wild Card weekend, we know deep down Buffalo is about to do the same to Miami. The margin of victory won’t be 58, but Buffalo is going to put a hurting on the Dolphins.
The Dolphins are without their starting quarterback and their competent backup quarterback. They are left starting Skylar Thompson, their third-string QB. Thompson made two starts this season and got a lot of action in two other games because of injuries. He’s completing 57% of passes, with one touchdown to three interceptions., while averaging only an adjusted four yards per attempt.
SImply put, Miami just isn’t going to score.
Miami’s only hope to cover this game is forcing Josh Allen into turnovers, which is possible. He has thrown for 14 interceptions this season. However, is that even enough? An ugly Bills offensive performance that nets 21 points can cover for them if the Dolphins can’t score.
I just don’t see how the Dolphins keep it close. I’m going to trust my core here. Give me Buffalo.
PICK: Bills (-13.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 13.5 points
Jerry Jones says Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy’s job is not at stake vs. Bucs
The Dallas Cowboys will take on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucs during Super Wild Card Weekend.
Cowboys at Buccaneers (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN)
I’ll take the points with the Bucs, but I’d actually be OK just taking them straight up for the win.
Since the Cowboys’ Week 9 bye, they’ve won six of nine games. Here are the quarterbacks Dallas faced in those six games: Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Matt Ryan, whoever the Texans decided to play at quarterback that weekend, Gardner Minshew and Josh Dobbs. In that same time period, the Cowboys lost three road games to Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence and a combination of Commanders quarterbacks last Sunday. Now, the Cowboys travel to face Tom Brady in Tampa Bay on the Bucs’ grass field.
I’ve routinely discussed my dislike for the Bucs coaching staff this season. I’m sure they are fine people, but their play calling and game management stink. Nonetheless, they have Tom Brady who makes things right for them.
Tampa Bay’s offensive line is getting healthier, which is important when facing the Dallas pass rush. However, the Cowboys pass rush is worse on grass which often happens when a turf team heads outside. Their defense was ranked second in DVOA through the first eight games, and since the bye, they are ninth. Once again, look at the quarterbacks they’ve faced.
Dallas’ offense can be very good. We’ve seen it throughout the season. But for as many points as the Cowboys score, their efficiency doesn’t quite match. They’re fourth in points but 15th in efficiency. Dak Prescott has thrown some terrible interceptions, and the offense looks disjointed at times. They are facing a Bucs defense that has carried the team all year and I expect them to cause disruption to the Dallas offense.
Lastly, I trust Tom Brady to make plays over the Cowboys players and coaches in the meaningful moments of the game on Monday. I’ll wager on Tom Brady.
PICK: Buccaneers (+2.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
Lamar Jackson faces ‘uphill battle’ to play vs. Bengals, per reports
Jackson has been out since Dec 4. Nick Wright, Chris Broussard, Kevin Wildes and Greg Jennings discuss.
Ravens at Bengals (8:15 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)
The Bengals enter the playoffs on an eight-game win streak, playing some of the best ball in the AFC. They are hosting the Ravens seven days after beating them in Week 18. And it appears the Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley, which makes them the second playoff team to start a third string quarterback.
The Ravens have been without Jackson since they played the Broncos in Week 13. Since that 10-point offensive output, Baltimore has yet to score over 17 points. So I think wagering on the game Under, Ravens team total Under and even the Bengals to cover would be fine. But I’m going to get a tad exotic for this one.
During the Bengals eight-game win streak, plus the now-canceled game against the Bills, the Bengals have scored first in seven of those nine. And when they score first, it’s usually on the opening drive. They’ve been lethal on opening drives. I’m going to wager on that trend to continue against the Ravens.
The Ravens will be featuring more starters on defense this weekend, but I still expect the same from Joe Burrow. A straight wager on the Bengals to score first is -175. That’s a tad heavy on the juice, so I’m going with Bengals to score first and win the game which is priced at -110.
PICK: Bengals to score first and win (-110 at FOX Bet)
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @GeoffSchwartz.
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