Super Bowl LVII odds: Bettors hit Eagles early, causes huge line movement

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

On Sunday night, as Super Bowl LVII odds started to populate at U.S. sportsbooks, most operators were in the range of pick ‘em or Philadelphia Eagles -1 vs. the Kansas City Chiefs, including FOX Bet.

But Circa Sports isn’t most operators. Circa opened the Big Game at Chiefs -2.5, a notable difference from pretty much every competitor. If you’re familiar with Circa, though, it wasn’t that surprising, as sportsbook operations manager Jeff Benson explained Monday morning.

Let’s dive into the big Super Bowl line movement that occurred Sunday night.

Patrick Mahomes is the ‘greatest QB talent ever seen’

Colin Cowherd explains why Patrick Mahomes ‘is the greatest QB talent’ he has ever seen.

Price discovery

“Chris Bennett, our director of risk, he and I both had Chiefs -2.5,” Benson said. “I think the difference between pick and Chiefs -2.5, while it’s 2.5 points, that range is smaller than, say, -4 to -6. The numbers in the 2.5-to-pick range aren’t as likely to fall as that of other ranges of numbers.”

Still, it led to a pretty interesting few minutes in Circa Sports’ Super Bowl odds market.

Benson said there was no concern about being a couple of points off market from competitors Sunday night. In fact, when markets first open, Circa Sports tends to revel in that prospect, seeing it very much as a learning opportunity.

“I wasn’t very surprised to see others go out at pick ‘em. We felt confident in our number,” Benson said. “The whole exercise for us was price discovery. We put up the number we thought was correct, then we start the bookmaking process, shaping where that number goes.”

Where that number went was from Chiefs -2.5 to Eagles -1.5 in literally the first five minutes. But again, that wasn’t alarming at all to anyone in Circa’s risk room.

“It was cool. I was in the risk room watching it. It was one-way Eagles money for the first five minutes, given that we were off market,” Benson explained. “Sometimes the market comes to us, and sometimes it doesn’t. This time, it didn’t. When you put out a Super Bowl number and have big limits ($20,000 Sunday night), and you’re taking a stand by being off market, the bets come in hot and heavy.”

That frenzy of bets led to a very candid Sunday night tweet from Benson that read, in part:

“The market disagreed and said our opener was garbage. It will be interesting to see where this number goes in the next two weeks.”

The Resistance

Circa initially posted its Super Bowl odds at 7:08 p.m. PT on Sunday. A mere 21 minutes later, the line had shifted 5 points, from Chiefs -2.5 to Eagles -2.5 (-115).

“We finally started to see some resistance at [Eagles] -2.5. That was where we started to see a little more two-way action. We definitely had some Chiefs buyback at that point,” Benson said. “These two teams are widely viewed as pretty even, [so] Eagles -2.5 seemed to be the ceiling. I don’t believe it will reach -3.”

On Monday morning, Philly was -2 at Circa. There are still nearly two weeks for the odds to marinate before the 6:30 p.m. ET Feb. 12 kickoff on FOX and the FOX Sports App. So where will the number go from here?

“I don’t think we’ll get back to our opener. But obviously, we’ve got a two-week leadup,” Benson said while noting the betting opinions expressed Sunday night were primarily from sharp players/groups. “I wouldn’t be surprised if this came back toward the Chiefs.”

Especially if, over these next two weeks, Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes‘ ankle improves, and the banged-up Chiefs receiving corps – along with a couple of players on defense – heals up well in the wake of the AFC Championship Game win over Cincinnati.

“I think we could go toward pick, and that’d be a pretty good point where we’d write two-way action,” Benson said.

More Super Bowl numbers

At BetMGM, vice president of trading Jason Scott had his line on the move early, though not nearly as much as at Circa, after opening Philly as a short favorite.

“We opened up Philly -1 and saw a few sharps in,” Scott said Sunday night, noting some professional bettors jumped in on the Eagles. “Limits are small [right now], so money is inconsequential. We are now at Philly -2.5.”

By Monday morning, BetMGM backed up to Eagles -2.

On the Super Bowl total, the consensus number late Sunday night was 49.5, and that remained the consensus Monday morning. Circa, however, was at 50 after opening at 51, notably higher than the rest of the market.

The SuperBook was on the other end, opening the total low at 48.5 and quickly getting bet up to 49.5 before settling at 49 late Sunday evening. On Monday, though, The SuperBook rejoined most others at 49.5.

John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook, said Sunday’s conference championship results provided the ideal Super Bowl matchup.

“Of the remaining four teams, the Eagles are The SuperBook’s best outcome to win the Super Bowl,” Murray said during the second half of Philly’s rout of San Francisco. “We’re [also] in a very good Super Bowl futures position on Kansas City.”

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

Top stories from FOX Sports:

For more, from gambling-friendly schedules featuring live, updating odds to expert analysis and the day’s most-bet games, check out the all-new “NFL Odds” section on the FOX Sports App and FOXSports.com!

Play FOX Super 6 every week for your chance to win thousands of dollars every week. Just download the Super 6 app and make your picks today!