Where the early sharp bets are on TCU-Georgia CFP championship game

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Putting down your hard-earned cash on College Football Playoff championship game odds became a more challenging proposition, thanks to the final matchup.

You’ve got defending national champion Georgia, which is not a big surprise. And you’ve got TCU, which is quite a surprise. Before the season, you could’ve gotten the Horned Frogs at 200-1 odds at FOX Bet for them to win it all.

As such, even though the Frogs have made it this far, they’re nearly two-touchdown underdogs to the Bulldogs.

So how are sharp bettors approaching Monday night’s title tilt? Well, at least one of them is looking to the point total of 62.5 instead.

“Despite a decent likelihood of it being priced at a premium due to the high-scoring results in the two national semifinals, I’ll be betting the Over in the championship game,” said Andy Molitor, a well-versed college football bettor and director of content for Betsperts.com.

Against the Sharp Grain

On a week-to-week basis during football season — NFL or college — sharp bettors are often known for playing the Under on totals. Public/recreational bettors, who want nothing more than to see a lot of points, almost always bet the Over. Savvy bettors scoop up what’s considered the better value on the Under.

But after two high-flying semifinal games where TCU held off Michigan 51-45 and Georgia rallied past Ohio State in a 42-41 win, Molitor is taking a different tack. And that’s even with TCU running back Kendre Miller (knee) questionable midweek for the big game.

“After picking up some injuries in the semifinal versus Ohio State and suddenly looking a little more human than they have over the past two seasons, I [still] think the TCU offense can continue its success Monday night. Although I’m not sure it’ll be enough to actually lift the trophy,” Molitor said. “Georgia giving up 71 points over its past two games is probably a bit more than was expected and can’t be counted on to continue at that high of a rate at least. But it has perhaps shown that some of the injuries on defense and special teams are beginning to catch up a bit.”

Indeed, Georgia, with a reputation for stingy defense, gave up some points over its last two outings. In the SEC championship against LSU, the Bulldogs rolled 50-30, but that was the first time all season that Georgia allowed more than 22 points.

Then in the CFP semis, the Bulldogs fell behind by two touchdowns twice as Ohio State went up and down the field, putting up five TDs and two field goals.

TCU Offense No Fluke

Having seen the Bulldogs’ late-season lapses on defense and the season-long impressiveness of the Horned Frogs’ offense, Molitor feels comfortable stating that TCU can fulfill its role in helping Over 62.5 cash out. He was particularly impressed by what QB Max Duggan & Co. did against Michigan.

“Obviously, some of [TCU’s] scoring came from the defense,” Molitor said, noting the Horned Frogs returned two interceptions for touchdowns. “But to see a team have the success on the ground that they did versus a stout Michigan defense has me very hopeful that we can see more of the same on another neutral field, indoors versus UGA.”

And though TCU is on a Cinderella run, the offense is by no means a fairy tale.

“While some of this magical season has felt fluky, nothing about their offense is,” Molitor said. “Duggan is a true dual threat, and there doesn’t seem to be a blueprint on how to slow the Horned Frogs down at the moment, as their offense really is a team effort. While Kendre Miller and Quentin Johnston are clearly their best back and receiver, they are deep at both positions and don’t allow a team to take one player away in order to beat them.”

Georgia O on the Go

Of course, TCU can’t cash Over tickets by itself unless something really crazy happens. And since Molitor is less certain of TCU pulling the huge upset, the Bulldogs will certainly have to carry their weight on the scoreboard.

Molitor doesn’t see that being a problem for QB Stetson Bennett and the Georgia offense.

“Most of the argument is based on TCU scoring, ignoring the other half of the equation that it takes to cash an Over,” Molitor said. “But I just feel like getting 30-35 points should be the absolute floor for the better team with the highly experienced quarterback. And that only goes up if the Bulldogs are in a game state that doesn’t allow them to take their foot off the gas.”

Sharps on the Spread?

Will sharp bettors get involved on either side of this hefty spread? Generally speaking, the pros wouldn’t want to lay 13 points. So TCU would likely be more attractive if the Horned Frogs are fully healthy. WynnBet junior trader Dom DeBonis mapped out how he thinks wagering on the spread will go for the championship clash

“Under normal circumstances, the double-digit underdog with the proclivity to play well late in games would be the sharp side. But that will depend on the health of Horned Frogs running back Kendre Miller,” DeBonis said. “I would anticipate sharp money coming for or against TCU, depending on when his status is made official. So far, a spread of 13 has shown to be the sweet spot between the two sides. So the closing number could very well be determined by the injury report.”

That’s always an important point to make. For those of you thinking of wagering on the spread — or really any market tied to Miller’s status — definitely keep a close eye on the injury news. As for me? I’m more inclined to follow Molitor’s instincts on this total.

Regardless, here’s hoping it’s another shootout on par with the two semifinals and that TCU can keep it very interesting all night.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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