2022-23 NBA MVP Race: Nikola Jokić in the driver’s seat

Yaron Weitzman

NBA Writer

We’ve basically reached the three-quarter mark of the regular season, and the playoffs are less than two months away.

So, what better time to start a weekly check-in on the MVP race?

Our FOX Sports NBA panel — Yaron Weitzman and Melissa Rohlin — is here to deliver its current favorites to win the NBA MVP award, as the precious hardware inches closer to being delivered to one of the game’s brightest stars.

Let’s dive in.

1. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
Stats: 24.8 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 10.0 APG
FOX Bet MVP Odds: -333

Only three players in NBA history have won three straight MVPs: Bill Russell (1960-63), Wilt Chamberlain (1965-68) and Larry Bird (1983-86). As you can see, it’s something that hasn’t been done in 37 years.

If the season ended today, Jokić would bring that streak to an end.

Jokić has dominated the league all season. He’s now averaging a triple-double — he’s also recorded two since the All-Star break — and leads the league in most catch-all advanced stats. With him on the court, the Nuggets have thrashed opponents in non-garbage time minutes by an absurd 14.1 points per 100 possessions. When Jokić sits, the Nuggets have actually been outscored by 12.7, according to Cleaning the Glass. That translates to the difference between a 69-win team and a 14-win one. In other words: he’s the driver, engine and conductor of a Nuggets team that is currently leading the pack in the Western Conference.

But there’s more to Jokić’s game than 2K-like numbers. Spend one night watching him sling mesmerizing passes, mash large men — who, when standing alongside Jokić, appear puny — and loft in all sorts of floaters and jumpers from all over the floor, and what you see is a once-in-a-generation talent playing the best basketball of his career.

2. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
Stats: 33.0 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 4.1 APG
FOX Bet MVP Odds: +350

It’s fair to feel sort of sorry for Embiid. If not for Jokić doing things we’ve never seen before, Embiid would be the front-runner for his second-straight award. It’s gotten to the point where you no longer register when he puts together something like the 41-point, 12-rebounds, five-assist performance he put up in a last-second loss over the weekend to the Boston Celtics.

That game against the Celtics was a masterclass. It’s not just that Embiid was able to do that against one of the league’s best defenses and arguably its best team. It’s the way he was able to use his mind to pick the Celtics apart. He manipulated the Celtics all night, spinning away from incoming double-teams, attacking fast off the catch and targeting specific mismatches.

The thing Embiid has — and will always have — over Jokić is the defense. You can make an argument that he’s the best rim protector in the league. But the Nuggets having a better record and Jokić’s pure offensive dominance knocks Embiid into the second slot here.

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Stats: 31.3 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 5.4 APG
FOX Bet MVP Odds: +1000

This is purely an “if the season ended today” thing. But we’ll get to that in a minute.

The case for Giannis is simple: He remains a game-changing terror on both ends of the floor. Also, the Bucks have reeled off 14 straight wins (!), propelling them past Boston and into first place in the East.

The problem is that Giannis sustained a knee injury on Friday night, which sidelined him for the Bucks’ next game. This came just a few days after traveling to New York City to get his sprained wrist examined. The Bucks are one of those teams for whom the regular season isn’t crucial. They know who they are and what they’re capable of come playoff time. Don’t be surprised if we see Giannis receive some rest days down the stretch.

4. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
Stats: 30.4 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 4.6 APG
FOX Bet MVP Odds: +1700

He’s still the best player on arguably the best team. And he’s been sensational all season — 30-plus points per game on efficient shooting (37.8% from deep, 45.7% overall) is ridiculous. That he does this all while playing smothering defense makes it even more impressive.

That said, when it comes to the MVP, we’re dealing with razor-thin margins, and Tatum has been a bit cold coming out of the All-Star break. He was just 9-for-25 against the Pacers, 7-for-17 against the Sixers, and 6-for-18 against the Knicks. Then again, he did do this against Philly:

5. Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks
Stats: 33.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 8.1 APG
FOX Bet MVP Odds: +1800

Another star having an absurd season who has hit a tiny bit of a cold stretch. It is worth noting that Luka is third in the NBA in win shares and second in Value Over Replacement Player. But the Mavericks have also lost four out of five. That’s not Luka’s fault. The trade for Kyrie Irving has gutted the Mavericks’ depth (though it is worth noting that lineups with Kyrie and Luka and outscoring opponents by 7.3 points per 100 non-garbage time possessions, per Cleaning the Glass). But given the seasons that the players listed up top are compiling, it’s hard to argue for someone whose team is currently barely clinging to a playoff spot.

Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports and the author of Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports. Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.

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