In just a few days’ time, Super Bowl LVII odds have seen significant shifting. In fact, most of that shifting came in just the first few minutes Sunday night, once the matchup was set between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
A stray sportsbook or two opened the Chiefs as favorites. Other operators made the game a pick ‘em or maybe had the Eagles at -1/-1.5. All of them had to adjust even further.
With 10 days to go until this highly anticipated Feb. 12 kickoff at 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX and FOX Sports app, betting on the Super Bowl has settled down a bit. But it won’t stay settled.
Let’s dive into some early nuggets and insights on Super Bowl LVII odds.
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Injury Bug
Kansas City was already banged up in the biggest possible way entering the AFC Championship Game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Star QB Patrick Mahomes was dealing with a high ankle sprain.
Mahomes fought through it. And his late scamper for a first down — which also drew an unnecessary roughness penalty on Cincinnati — allowed Kansas City to get the 23-20 home victory. Still, it was clear Mahomes was limited. Additionally, the Chiefs’ wideout corps got beat up, and a couple key defenders were injured.
“The injuries to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game likely caused the early interest on the Eagles,” WynnBet senior trader John Manica said of early Super Bowl action/odds movement. “Mahomes was visibly affected by the ankle injury. They also lost a starting cornerback (L’Jarius Sneed) and several members of the offense.
“The early open had the game close to pick. The spots that opened the Chiefs a favorite were quickly bet and moved toward the Eagles being the favorite. The early market settled having the Eagles favored by 2 or 2.5.”
WynnBet opened at Eagles -1.5 and quickly got pushed to -2 Sunday night. But by Tuesday afternoon, the line was back at Philly -1.5. And Manica suggested bettors keep a close eye on that Chiefs injury report.
“I expect most of these players to return to health, and as the injury news improves for the Chiefs, the line will head back that way,” he said, before offering up this nugget: “If both teams were fully healthy, the Chiefs would likely be 2.5 or possibly -3 point favorites.”
Watch on FOX, Wager on FOX Bet
Over at FOX Bet, sports trader Matthew Griffe mirrored some of Manica’s insights.
“Wagering was fast and furious at open, but we saw resistance at +2 for the Chiefs,” Manica said. “The market is fairly established now at Eagles -1.5, but public wagering will escalate early next week, leading up to the game.”
Interestingly, if you’re looking for the best Super Bowl LVII moneyline odds on the Chiefs — betting simply on Kansas City to win the game — FOX Bet has your number.
“Currently, we are the market leader on Chiefs moneyline at +110, and we will look to maintain that position leading up to the game,” Griffe said.
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Take It To The Limits
The Super Bowl is extraordinarily well bet; it’s the largest-wagered, single-day sporting event in America by a mile. And most sportsbooks can up the limits they’ll take on a wager. During a typical NFL week, limits are low early in the week and get progressively higher as game day approaches and the market gets more liquid.
The same is true over the course of two weeks with the Super Bowl, except those early limits are higher. And WynnBet is already seeing a few customers eager to hit those limits.
“We have taken several limit wagers on both sides,” Manica said. “The early action was on the Eagles at -1.5. As the market went to -2, we also moved and received steady Eagles action. We then received sharp action at Chiefs +2 (-104), a $10,000 limit wager. We stayed at Eagles -2 (-108) for a while until a $10,000 [Chiefs] wager pushed us to Eagles -1.5 (-108), which is where we stand now.
“The ticket count favors the Eagles, but the larger wagers have been on the Chiefs.”
The Sharp Side
In our weekly check-in with a sharp Vegas NFL bettor, he’s already got his first Super Bowl wager locked in. And it’s on the total.
“I played Over 49.5 for the Super Bowl,” he said. “Andy Reid with two weeks to prepare is lethal. It’s a fast track. I like both offenses to produce and score. It has a 34-24 type of feel.”
The reason he’s already on the Over is that he fully anticipates the number going higher. That’s hardly unusual in any big NFL game, and especially in the Super Bowl.
“It should close at 51 or higher,” he said.
The professional bettor is taking a wait-and-see attitude on which team he likes come Feb. 12 at State Farm Stadium in Arizona. And his reasons echoed the aforementioned insights from WynnBet’s Manica.
“With injuries, I can’t pick a side yet,” the bettor said.
It’s Never Under Til It’s Over
The “It’s never Under til it’s over” quip comes from longtime and renowned oddsmaker Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at the South Point here in Las Vegas. It’s a reference to the total, of course. And no question, Andrews and his oddsmaking peers across the country will be rooting for the Under come Super Bowl Sunday.
That includes Manica and the risk team at WynnBet, where early bettors are hitting the Over.
“The total has been bet up by two limit wagers, one at 49.5 and one at 50,” Manica said. “We moved to 50.5 and received a smaller sharp wager for $2,000. We joined one spot at the top of the market and found resistance, a limit $5,000 wager on Under 51 by a respected source. We are now at 50.5.”
If the early trend holds, this could be a situation in which the sharps and the public — the Pros and the Joes — are on the same side for the Super Bowl.
“Generally, the public fandom likes to watch points, and the Over receives action no matter what as game time approaches,” Manica said. “This is likely going to be at a higher number than open because it appears the sharps like the Over right now.”
However, Manica reminds us that there’s plenty of time until Super Bowl Sunday.
“We are a long way out, and this can change rapidly,” he said, noting the aforementioned limits can cause seismic shifts as they rise closer to kickoff. “The limits for the Super Bowl are extremely high. The $10,000 and $20,000 wagers can be used to cause early moves, then the other side [gets] bet at high limits toward game time.”
To that end, be it on the spread, the total or the moneyline, don’t be surprised at all to hear reports of not only countless six-figure bets, but some million- or even multimillion-dollar wagers over the next week and a half.
Boston Market
The New England Patriots didn’t even make the playoffs this year, let alone contend for a Super Bowl bid. But that’s not stopping the newly opened Massachusetts market from getting down on the Big Game.
On Tuesday morning, the Bay State launched legal, regulated retail sports betting. That means bettors don’t yet have mobile wagering available, although it appears they will by the time March Madness rolls around. Currently, they can wager at retail sportsbooks.
Encore Boston Harbor is home to an opulent new WynnBet sportsbook. Manica said from the outset, there’s been a big appetite for Super Bowl odds at both the betting counter and dozens of kiosks.
“The action in Boston has been excellent,” he said. “The kiosks have seen tremendous handle on the Super Bowl. Typical side and total wagers are being placed for the varying amounts you would expect the public to wager – tons of $10, $25, $50 and $100 wagers. We took a $20,000 wager on the Eagles -2.”
And there appears to be a little Northeast bias or, more likely with all those Patriots fans, an anti-Chiefs bias.
“The ticket count favors the Eagles. I expect that to continue.”
In addition, the props of player to score the first touchdown and player to score anytime touchdown are popular, just as they are in every other legal sports betting market. Manica said for first TD, bettors are on Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and Eagles wideout DeVonta Smith. On anytime TD, Mahomes and Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert are getting early action.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Major Wagers flew fast and furious at Caesars Sports after Super Bowl odds went up Sunday night. Within the first hour, there were two dozen bets of $10,000 or more on either the spread or the moneyline, according to Caesars Sports’ Max Meyer. And 21 of those 24 bets were on the Eagles.
Among the bigger Super Bowl plays thus far at Caesars:
$131,584.75 (yes, 75 cents, too) on Eagles -2
$110,000 on Over 49.5
Additionally, Caesars has some Super Bowl futures tickets out there that could pay out nicely come Super Bowl Sunday. Among those, in early January, a customer put $50,000 on the Chiefs +450 to win the Big Game for a potential profit of $225,000.
On the positive side of Caesars’ ledger, the book cleared out one massive potential liability. A bettor had $75,000 on the 49ers +1200 to win the Super Bowl, for a profit of $900,000. That ticket died in the Niners’ 31-7 loss to the Eagles on Sunday.
As noted above, there will be more big bets out there for more dollars than most of us could ever hope to count. These wagers are often fun to hear or read about, but don’t let them faze you. Keep it reasonable for Super Bowl Sunday.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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