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Matt MillerESPN
Who are the real first-round prospects for the 2023 NFL draft? No, not the players who will be drafted in the first round, but rather the players who actually receive a true Round 1 grade. And yes, there is a difference.
There will be 31 players selected in the first round, with the Miami Dolphins being penalized a selection for violations of league policies relating to the integrity of the game. But NFL teams will not put first-round grades on 31-plus players. Why not? The sacred first-round grade is reserved for a player who would be a Day 1 pick in any recent draft year, and the number varies by team and scouting department. One NFC team told me it limits its board to just 15 first-round grades to make scouts be more critical before handing out a special grade. Round 1 grades are reserved for players who are truly worthy of the early pick, not just those who will end up being one.
So I set out to list every player with a first-round grade and ended up with 19 names (down from 20 in my late-January update, but up from 17 in early December). My own rule of thumb is evaluating whether each player would have been a first-round pick in every one of the past five draft classes. The list could grow or shrink over the next two months after the scouting combine and college pro days. But for now, here’s a look at the 2023 draft class’ Round 1 grades. Players’ overall rankings are in parentheses after their names.
Jump to position:
QB | RB | WR | TE | OT | IOL
EDGE | DT | LB | CB | S
Quarterback (3)
Comp: Tua Tagovailoa
Young entered the 2022 season with high expectations as the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, and he answered the call with 3,328 passing yards, 32 TD throws and just five interceptions. He showed growth as a player, displaying poise, pocket awareness and field vision. There will be many questions about Young’s size (6-foot, 194 pounds), but his on-field work is that of a franchise quarterback.
Comp: Dak Prescott
Stroud put up big numbers in the wide-open Ohio State passing game (3,688 passing yards, 41 TD throws and six interceptions). At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, Stroud has really good touch accuracy to all levels of the field. He’s also an above-average runner and mover in the pocket when given room to operate. The hardest thing about evaluating Stroud is extrapolating his talent from the Buckeyes’ scheme and figuring out what he can do without that system around him.
Comp: Matthew Stafford
Levis’ numbers at Kentucky — 2,406 passing yards, 19 touchdown passes, 10 interceptions — are not good enough for the first round, but scouts love his 6-foot-3/232-pound build, toughness, arm strength and mentality as a passer. Levis is very boom or bust, and he has to improve his decision-making.
Running back (1)
Comp: Saquon Barkley
Robinson is the total package as a running back prospect. He plays with amazing patience but can also lower his shoulder with a 220-pound frame and create space for himself. Robinson’s contact balance and vision in traffic are some of the best I’ve ever seen. He rushed for 1,580 rushing yards and 18 TDs this season, and he’s also a very good receiving threat out of the backfield (314 receiving yards). There are few players more talented than Robinson in this year’s class.
Wide receiver (2)
Comp: CeeDee Lamb
Smith-Njigba finished the 2021 season with a record-setting Rose Bowl appearance (347 receiving yards, three TDs) but was hampered by a hamstring injury in 2022, limiting him to just five catches and 43 yards. It makes for a fascinating evaluation, but the 6-foot-1, 200-pound Smith-Njigba can still find himself in the top 15 picks. He shows excellent concentration and body control, and he can still get open even when the defense is keyed to stop him.
Comp: Keenan Allen
Addison transferred from Pitt to USC after winning the 2021 Biletnikoff Award for best wide receiver in college football. And he quietly put together an outstanding year playing on Pacific Standard Time, with 59 catches, 875 yards and eight touchdowns. Addison isn’t a big receiver (6-foot, 175 pounds), but he plays with great power after the catch and has the footwork to create separation in his route tree.
Tight end (1)
Comp: T.J. Hockenson
Mayer is a throwback three-down tight end who can line up next to the offensive tackle and clear out in the run game or bring down passes up the seam. At 6-foot-4 and 265 pounds, he has elite size and uses it to produce all over the field to the tune of 67 catches, 809 yards and nine touchdowns in 2022. Mayer is a post-up, box-out red zone threat, and while he’s not expected to run a sub-4.5-second 40-yard dash, his power, agility and instincts should keep him in the top 15 picks even at a non-premium position.
Offensive tackle (3)
Comp: Ryan Ramczyk
The 6-foot-4, 315-pound left tackle plays with NFL-caliber power and heavy hands but also has good mobility at the second level in the run game. Skoronski’s lack of length will be questioned by some teams, but he’s a powerhouse blocker in the run and pass game and is positioned to be a Year 1 starter in the NFL. He allowed just three sacks over 33 career starts.
Comp: Dion Dawkins
A former five-star recruit, Jones emerged in his first year as a starter and became one of the nation’s best left tackles. He has a level of toughness and strength to his game that’s hard to find, but he also shows the recovery agility and balance to compete with speedy outside pass-rushers. His game is raw given limited reps (19 starts), but his upside is through the roof. At 6-foot-4 and 315 pounds, there might be arm length questions, but his tape is Round 1-caliber. Jones allowed zero sacks this season for Georgia.
Comp: Terron Armstead
Johnson was arguably Ohio State’s best lineman during the 2021 season while playing out of position at right guard. He moved to his natural position of left tackle for 2022 and allowed just two sacks. The 6-foot-6, 310-pound junior has solid quickness and balance while also playing with poise and power. He’s still ironing out his technique, but Johnson’s ceiling is potentially the best of any 2023 offensive lineman.
Interior offensive line (0)
Positional value has hit the interior of the offensive line, as NFL teams find high-level starters on Days 2 and 3 of the draft. The 2023 class features talented guards and centers — players such as O’Cyrus Torrence (Florida) and John Michael Schmitz (Minnesota) — who could sneak into Round 1 but don’t carry an across-the-board first-round grade.
Edge rusher (4)
Comp: Von Miller
A menace off the edge, Anderson saw his role increase in 2022 when the Alabama coaches needed more interior pressure and called on No. 31 to do the dirty work. Over the past two seasons, the 6-foot-4, 243-pounder produced 27.5 sacks, 54 tackles for loss, 130 pressures, a forced fumble and an interception. He shows unstoppable first-step quickness and has a great understanding of pass-rush angles and leverage. Yes, Anderson misses some tackles in the backfield, but he is a complete pass-rusher who likely would have been the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft.
Comp: Bradley Chubb
Murphy produced from Day 1 at Clemson, working into the rotation as a true freshman. He filled the stat sheet with 18 sacks and 31 tackles for loss over three seasons while developing rare speed and power. The 6-foot-5, 275-pound Murphy is widely expected to run in the low-4.6s in the 40-yard dash at the combine, too. NFL teams are excited about his pass-rush tools and upside, given his rare burst, power and agility.
Comp: Frank Clark
One of the hottest draft risers of the 2022 season, Wilson brings a great combination of length, quickness off the ball and relentless pursuit mentality. Over the past two years, the 6-foot-6, 275-pounder had 14 sacks, 30.5 tackles for loss and 71 pressures while dominating at the point of attack. He’s one of the safer defensive prospects in the class, as his positional tools are already so well developed. Wilson should enter the NFL as a solid starter with the upside to become a truly special player.
Comp: George Karlaftis
Van Ness never started a game in college but wowed with his quickness and agility while playing defensive end for the Hawkeyes. The 6-foot-5, 269-pounder played only two seasons at Iowa but collected 13.5 sacks and 52 pressures as a part-time player. He’s a raw prospect, but it’s easy to get excited about his speed, length and power as a true 4-3 defensive end at the next level. Comparisons to Karlaftis (a 2022 first-rounder) have been made by more than one scout.
Defensive tackle (1)
Comp: Fletcher Cox
The 2021 Georgia defense had five players selected in the first round of the 2022 draft, and Carter (not eligible in that draft) might have actually been the best defender on the team. At 6-foot-3 and 310 pounds, he has great first-step quickness and a powerful frame that can split double teams. Carter battled ankle and knee injuries this season and platooned on a deep Georgia defense last year, but he still accumulated six sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss over the past two seasons.
Linebacker (0)
The 2023 linebacker class is talented, and there are several players likely to be drafted in the first round — but none of them has a true Round 1 grade at this time. Players in contention for Day 1 picks are Arkansas’ Drew Sanders and Clemson’s Trenton Simpson.
Cornerback (3)
Comp: Darius Slay
An aggressive and physical cornerback, Witherspoon is sticky in coverage and uses his size (6-foot-1, 180 pounds) and quickness to stay in-phase and eliminate targets. He had three interceptions and 14 pass breakups this past season. And while run defense doesn’t get talked about much with corner prospects, Witherspoon’s open-field tackling ability is the best in the class at the position.
Comp: Marlon Humphrey
Porter has standout instincts and physicality. The 6-foot-2, 198-pound junior broke up 11 passes on limited targets in 2022, as opposing offenses stayed away from him. Porter has the length, toughness, speed and timing to be a top-tier NFL cornerback.
Comp: Byron Jones
A transfer from Colorado, Gonzalez found his footing at Oregon under first-year coach Dan Lanning, who was the architect of the 2021 Georgia defense. Gonzalez has great size at 6-foot-2 and 201 pounds, and his speed and leaping ability are elite traits. He had a breakout season in 2022 with four interceptions and seven pass breakups.
Safety (1)
Comp: Jalen Pitre
Branch was the do-it-all Swiss Army knife for Nick Saban’s defense, and he should have an easy transition to the NFL as the league moves toward more versatile safeties. At 6-foot and 193 pounds, Branch has the size to make an impact in the run game from the box but also the burst and change-of-direction skills to lock up receivers and tight ends from the slot. Scouts rave about his instincts and ability to step into the pros right away, which showed on tape with seven pass breakups and only 19 completions allowed in 2022. It’s easy to see him being the next Tyrann Mathieu-like defender to make a splash in an NFL secondary.
