Bubble Watch 2023: Have USC, Pitt already played their way in?

Andy Katz

College Basketball Analyst & Writer

The bubble is in full bubblicious mode with a number of teams helping themselves and a few definitely hurting their chances in the past week.

Here’s a look at some of the teams that rose and others that seemed to fall last week.

Rising

USC (17-6): The Trojans beat UCLA and have won four in a row. USC should be comfortably in barring a complete collapse.

Pitt (16-7): The Panthers had three monster wins over the past week-plus against Wake Forest, Miami , and then at North Carolina to give the Panthers a sweep of the Tar Heels. Pitt’s best non-conference win was at Northwestern, forcing the Panthers to do their work in the ACC. They have done plenty to put themselves in position to get a bid.

Oklahoma State (14-9): The Cowboys picked up a massive win over TCU at home and completed a season sweep of rival Oklahoma. The Cowboys have already beaten Iowa State, too. Oklahoma State is a team that can get to the NCAAs solely on its play in the Big 12, and still has three golden opportunities in Stillwater against Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor. Win all three of those games, in addition to beating Texas Tech, and the Cowboys would be guaranteed nine Big 12 wins, taking down each of the projected NCAA-bound teams except for Texas.

VCU (18-6): I may be in the minority here, but I think the Rams are moving in the right direction. VCU swept a road swing at Davidson and Saint Louis. That put the Rams at 9-2 in the A-10, a game ahead of SLU, and at 18-6 overall. VCU has a win over Pitt that continues to look good. The Rams get Dayton, Fordham and SLU all at home. The remaining road games are winnable at Rhode Island, Saint Joseph’s and George Washington. If VCU wins the A-10 by a game or two and then loses in the final, the Rams would be hard to keep out.

Virginia Tech (14-9): The Hokies have a pulse. Virginia Tech lost seven games in a row. But also has wins over Penn State, Oklahoma State and Dayton. And in the ACC, Virginia Tech has wins over North Carolina, Duke and Virginia. The Hokies have opportunities with home games against Pitt and Miami, plus a road game at Duke. That means they can hope to be in position to grab a bid by the time the ACC tournament rolls around.

Seton Hall (15-9): The Pirates have won seven of eight, including a win over UConn. But now comes the hard part. Seton Hall must do well against the elite of the conference with home games against Creighton and Xavier, and road games at UConn and Providence. Go 3-1 against those four teams and the Pirates will be fully in the conversation.

Seton Hall’s Tae Davis throws down dunk

The Pirates have won seven of their last eight games.

Northwestern (16-7): The Wildcats bounced back from a home loss to Michigan by winning at Wisconsin to complete a season sweep of the Badgers. Northwestern already has Big Ten road wins at Indiana and Michigan State, and a home win over Illinois, too. The Wildcats go to Ohio State and then have a three-game homestead against Purdue, Indiana and Iowa. If they can go 2-2 in the next four, they should be feeling much more comfortable.

Michigan (13-10): The Wolverines have a pulse after winning at Northwestern and then beating Ohio State. Home games against Indiana and Michigan State could help the cause. But the road slate is brutal, with games at Rutgers, Illinois and Indiana still to come.

Nevada (18-6): The Wolf Pack have won two of three, beating San Diego State and New Mexico around a loss to UNLV. The Wolf Pack go to New Mexico next and still have to play at Utah State. But if they win the rest of their games and lose those two they could still be in play for a bid.

Utah State (19-5): The Aggies beat New Mexico and the schedule is favorable with San Diego State, Nevada and Boise State all coming to Logan in the next few weeks. Sweeping those three games would mean Utah State is in position to get a bid.

Oregon (14-10): The Ducks are lurking as a possible bid-stealer. Oregon has a sweep of Utah and wins over Arizona and ASU, the latter on the road. Now, they’ve got USC and UCLA coming into Eugene. A sweep would change the narrative of the season.

Florida (13-10): The Gators had a chance to steal a win at Kentucky after beating Tennessee. Florida has zero room for error and the next game is at Alabama. But the Gators do get Kentucky at home and still play Vanderbilt twice, as well as Ole Miss. The schedule lays out for Florida to get possibly six more wins. That would greatly help the cause.

Arkansas (16-7): The Hogs had faded, but have resurfaced as a strong bid contender after beating Texas A&M. Arkansas has a road game at Kentucky and still plays the Aggies in College Station. But finishing with road games at Alabama and Tennessee, plus a home game against Kentucky is going to be taxing. How they fare in those games will go a long way to determining their fate.

Falling

Arizona State (16-8): The Sun Devils can still play themselves out of the bid process. ASU has lost five of six. They’ve got to get through the Bay Area and Mountain Range schools before finishing with three straight at Arizona and then vs. UCLA and USC.

Utah (16-9): The Utes have lost two of three. They’ve got to start to pick up some significant wins. They will have chances with road games at the Arizona schools and with the L.A. schools coming to Salt Lake City.

Wisconsin (13-9): The Badgers have lost seven of nine games. The road swing to Penn State and Nebraska is massive for their chances.

Penn State (14-9): The Nittany Lions are in serious trouble after losing at Nebraska on Sunday. Penn State has lost three of four games. Playing host to Wisconsin and Illinois around a trip to Maryland means they’ve got to win the home games to get back on the right side of the bubble.

Ohio State (11-12): The Buckeyes are 3-9 in the Big Ten and have lost seven of nine games. They must sweep the homestead of Northwestern and Michigan State to regain a pulse in the chase for a bid.

Temple (14-10): The Owls were on thin ice and falling to Houston at home prevented them from getting a sweep of the Cougars. Temple has already lost to Tulane and Memphis at home. That means Temple must make up those losses by taking out Memphis and Tulane on the road. The Owls really can’t afford to fall in another game, either down the stretch.

Memphis (17-6): The Tigers have the VCU and Auburn wins on its shelf, but losing to Tulane, even by one, didn’t help the cause. The Tigers must try to get a sweep of Temple and get at least one win in the two games remaining against Houston. Memphis has a small margin for error.

Andy Katz is a longtime college basketball writer, analyst and host. He can be seen on the Big Ten Network, as well as March Madness and NCAA.com, and he hosts the podcast “March Madness 365.” Katz worked at ESPN for nearly two decades and, prior to that, in newspapers for nine years.

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