The NCAA Men’s Basketball Committee has a pretty good track record with its mid-February top 16, which has proven to be a strong precursor to Selection Sunday, now just three weeks away on March 12. The highly anticipated list was unveiled Saturday.
In the past five seasons, 65 of 80 teams in the committee’s top 16 have ended up in the top 16 on Selection Sunday.
All the No. 1 seeds stayed a 1- or 2-seed, with three of the four No. 1s remaining a 1-seed. All the No. 2 seeds stayed in the top 16 except for one, while 15 of the 20 3-seeds and 11 of the 20 4-seeds kept their place in the top 16.
Here is a look at what I believe the top 16 teams’ chances are to stay in, as well as which teams are on the outside looking in and what other possible 4-seeds could make a run for it.
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1-seeds
Alabama: The Tide, who are 13-1 in the SEC, have seven Quad 1 wins and show no signs of losing the conference title. Sure, Texas A&M is one game back, but the Aggies still have to play Tennessee and Alabama. (Yes, in College Station, but Alabama isn’t sliding). There’s no reason to believe that the Tide will fall from the No. 1 spot. The only question is where they will be among the four 1-seeds and what city will host them in the Sweet 16.
Houston: The Cougars beat Memphis on Sunday and have one more game left against the Tigers — this time to end the season in Memphis. A sweep would likely clinch a No. 1 seed. The only way the Cougars could fall off the 1-line would be losing two more games within the American Athletic Conference, and it’s hard to see that happening down the stretch.
Purdue: The Boilermakers slid down to the third No. 1 seed, sending Purdue to the East Region (New York City) and out of the nearby South Region (Louisville). However, the schedule is favorable the rest of the way, with just one more road game at Wisconsin. The court storming, though, is likely done. Expect Purdue to stay on the 1-line with a chance to climb back higher among the top four.
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Kansas: The Jayhawks had a great week after beating Oklahoma State and Baylor. Kansas is yet again atop the Big 12, and winning the conference will lock in its spot as a No. 1 seed. The surprise for some Saturday was when the committee listed Kansas as the 1-seed in the West Region (Las Vegas). There is still plenty of time for Kansas to move up and secure the top seed in the Midwest Region (Kansas City).
2-seeds
Texas: The Longhorns have eight Quad 1 wins. Texas’ conference record (10-4) is tied with Kansas atop the Big 12. The Longhorns haven’t had a slide in the conference and will likely remain on the 2-line if they keep playing steady. (Sidebar: Interim head coach Rodney Terry is a Werner Ladder Naismith Men’s College Coach of the Year finalist and thus should be the Longhorns’ permanent coach!)
Arizona: The Wildcats are 6-2 in Quad 1 and have the win over rival UCLA. Arizona has a chance to sweep the Bruins, and beating them again in the Pac-12 tournament would likely make them a lock for a 2-seed. However, losses at Stanford and to Washington State are still on the shelf, and any loss to teams not named UCLA or USC could slide them down a seed line.
Baylor: The Bears lost at Kansas but have an 8-7 Quad 1 record. This team has played a great schedule, so if the Bears simply tread water for the final two weeks, they should be able to maintain their place on the 2-line. Remember, some team has to knock Baylor off the 2-line, and there aren’t a slew of candidates up for the challenge.
UCLA: The Bruins only have four Quad 1 wins. Beating Arizona seems like a must-do to ensure that UCLA stays a 2-seed. The Bruins could get another shot in Las Vegas at the Pac-12 tournament and are trending in the right direction overall. If anything, UCLA will likely climb within the 2-line seeding, not drop to a 3-seed.
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3-seeds
Tennessee: The Vols lost at Kentucky after the top 16 was released, meaning they lost to both of the Wildcats (Arizona). Tennessee still needs to go to Texas A&M and Auburn. The Vols do have six Quad 1 wins, so they should stay on the 3-line, barring a complete collapse. They might slide down further among the foursome and could even fall to a 4-seed, but I don’t see the Vols dropping out of the top 16 altogether.
Virginia: The Cavaliers are one of the top candidates to move up to a 2-seed if a spot becomes available. Virginia has five Quad 1 wins, but the problem is that the only high-level opponent remaining would be Miami (Fla.) in the ACC tournament. The opportunities probably aren’t there to move up to the 2-line, barring some stumbles by those above.
Iowa State: The Cyclones have lost three of four, including at Kansas State, after the top 16 was announced. Iowa State still has to go to Texas and Baylor. They do have eight Quad 1 wins, but the Cyclones are a strong candidate to drop to the 4-line if they continue on this recent slide.
Kansas State: The Wildcats got the win over Iowa State and have six Quad 1 wins thus far. A win over Baylor this week would help the Wildcats cement a top-four seed. Nothing is a given, but the Wildcats have a strong case to remain in the top four lines. They should be able to swap spots with Iowa State on Selection Sunday.
4-seeds
Indiana: The Hoosiers continue to escape and pick up wins. They may not be in second place in the Big Ten, but they have the second-best chance overall to stay in the top 16 over current second-place team Northwestern, which swept Indiana this season. Indiana has six Quad 1 wins. If the Hoosiers can get a sweep of Purdue, then lock them in the top 16. I still think Indiana could find a way to get to the 3-line with a late push in the Big Ten plus the conference tournament.
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Marquette: The Golden Eagles have five Quad 1 wins, and they got the split of Xavier last week. A win at Creighton would go a long way to ensuring Marquette stays in the top four. If the Golden Eagles win the Big East, it will be hard to keep them out of the top 16.
Gonzaga: The Zags get the nod over Saint Mary’s despite being a game back in the West Coast Conference. Gonzaga only has three Quad 1 wins. If the Zags beat Saint Mary’s on Saturday and win the WCC tournament, then they can expect to be a 4-seed.
Xavier: The Musketeers lost to Marquette and have four Quad 1 wins. Xavier is one game back of Marquette and tied with Providence and Creighton in the Big East. If there is a candidate to slide off the 4-line, Xavier might be the best one to target.
The four teams that were the top contenders for the top 16 were Creighton, Miami (Fla.), Saint Mary’s and UConn.
Creighton has four Quad 1 wins and is tied with Xavier and Providence for second place. The Bluejays could find a way to the 4-line by winning the Big East and/or the conference tournament.
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Miami is one to keep an eye on if the ‘Canes were to win the ACC. Miami has six Quad 1 wins, and beating Virginia in the ACC tournament would go a long way toward moving them up to the 4-line.
Saint Mary’s simply has to beat Gonzaga and then do it again in the WCC tournament. Ha! No easy task. The Gaels have the hardest path to get to the 4-line.
UConn is an interesting case. The Huskies were No. 8 in the NET rankings Sunday and have six Quad 1 wins and could finish fourth or fifth in the Big East. Could the Huskies get a 4-seed after finishing so low in the Big East? Yes. The NCAA Tournament selection committee doesn’t look at conference standings. Still, this would be a hard sell.
The one candidate not mentioned that would have to be considered for a four seed if it keeps winning is Northwestern. The Wildcats had seven Quad 1 wins through Saturday’s games and then beat Iowa on Sunday. Northwestern beat Purdue and Indiana at home and have road wins at Indiana and Michigan State. If Northwestern were to win at Illinois, Maryland and Rutgers — or at least beat two of them — then they would have to be considered.
Andy Katz is a longtime college basketball writer, analyst and host. He can be seen on the Big Ten Network, as well as March Madness and NCAA.com, and he hosts the podcast “March Madness 365.” Katz worked at ESPN for nearly two decades and, prior to that, in newspapers for nine years.
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