Time for a new set of Round 1 predictions for the 2023 NFL draft. My first mock draft, back in January, was before the final four picks were set — this one has the complete 1-31 order. It also has three trades in the top five picks, including with the Bears at No. 1, who must weigh whether to stay put and get their choice of any prospect or move down.
Two months out from the draft, this mock is about pairing 2023 prospects with NFL teams based on a combination of my rankings — I have a new Big Board with updates at every position — along with pre-free-agency needs and what I’m hearing from people in the league whom I trust. The negotiation period of free agency begins Monday, March 13, and teams will fill holes through the open market — which means we’ll know much more about true draft needs soon. Just because a team adds a veteran quarterback over the next few weeks, it doesn’t mean that team won’t target a passer in Round 1.
The NFL combine begins this week, and we’ll have a big primer Thursday for the prospects to watch and those who could break records. As I’ve mentioned before, though, the things that happen off the field at the combine are just as important. This is where coaches and front-office executives can really get to know players.
As a reminder, there are only 31 picks this year because the Dolphins were stripped of their first-rounder for tampering violations. Check out the “SportsCenter Special: Mel Kiper’s NFL Mock Draft 2.0” at 5 p.m. ET Tuesday on ESPN2 and you can see me further explain my thought process for each pick. OK, here we go with a trade right off the bat:
coverage:
McShay’s latest mock draft
Consensus position rankings
Miller: Prospects with Round 1 grades
Projected trade: Houston moves up one spot
My pals Todd McShay and Matt Miller projected the Colts to move up to No. 1 to get a quarterback, but here’s another trade Chicago should consider. This involves Houston moving up just one spot to get its quarterback of the future. It’s risky for the Texans to stay at No. 2 — what if another team makes a deal with the Bears and selects the passer they want? That’s why they might be willing to give up a lot to move up from No. 2 to No. 1.
What could a trade look like? It would likely be similar to another one that involved Chicago. That was in 2017, when the Bears moved from No. 3 to No. 2 in a trade with the 49ers to select Mitch Trubisky. Chicago gave up pick Nos. 3, 67 and 111 along with its 2018 third-rounder. I don’t think the Texans would have to give up their other first-round pick — at No. 12 — but they have an extra third-rounder in this draft that could be appealing.
From the Bears’ perspective, they’re going to get several offers for the top pick, but they have to weigh how far down the board they’re willing to drop. Are they OK with going all the way to No. 7 (Raiders) or No. 9 (Panthers)? If they take an offer from Houston or Indianapolis, they’re guaranteed to get one of the top two defenders in this class, defensive tackle Jalen Carter or edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. Stay tuned on that …
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
With new coach DeMeco Ryans taking over the team that drafted him in 2006, it’s clear this roster needs a ton of work. The Texans own pick Nos. 2 and 12 in Round 1, along with some cap space to bring in free agents. They’re going to be able to add some early contributors. And though Ryans is a defensive coach, he has to know the most important part of success in the NFL is getting a star quarterback. That’s why he and general manager Nick Caserio have to get their passer of the future, and that’s why this trade makes a lot of sense. Davis Mills isn’t the guy, and this offense was among the league’s worst in 2022.
It’s a big week for Young, who will be under the microscope at the combine. There isn’t much of a history of sub-200-pound quarterbacks having NFL success, and he could put that to the test. He was closer to 190 pounds at Alabama; how much will he weigh in Indianapolis later this week? My over/under is 195. If he’s in that range, I feel good about him as the QB1.
On the field, Young doesn’t have many flaws. The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner has outstanding pocket presence and is an amazing processor, always a step ahead of where to go with the football. If everything checks out at the combine, I think he’s going to be the top player off the board, no matter the team.
Projected trade: Indy makes its move — and Chicago moves down again
How about another deal for the Bears? Remember, Chicago doesn’t own its second-round pick, and this is not a team that is going to contend in 2023. Why not continue to pick up capital while moving down only three total spots? To do this deal — moving from No. 4 to No. 2 — the Colts are going to have to give up the No. 35 overall selection, along with a few more (they have an extra third-rounder) potentially in the 2024 draft as well. Trades for Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan over the past two offseasons went way wrong, so if their guy is still on the board at No. 2 they should pounce, no matter the cost.
The Bears, meanwhile, are going to have prime picks to build around quarterback Justin Fields — we’re talking a bevy of second-, third- and fourth-rounders — and they can still get one of the top defenders. There’s a lot of time to compile offers for the No. 1 pick, but doing these deals means they can add valuable draft capital and still get a great instant-impact player for next season.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Over the past 25 years, the Colts have taken two quarterbacks in the first round: Peyton Manning, a Hall of Famer, and Andrew Luck, who was on a Hall of Fame track before he retired at age 29. Can they nail their quarterback pick again?
Stroud’s accuracy and arm strength are underrated, and his touch to all levels of the field is the best in this class. In Indianapolis, he would have a No. 1 wideout (Michael Pittman Jr.) and a top-tier running back (Jonathan Taylor). I don’t think the Colts are that far from contending in the AFC South. Stroud would give new coach Shane Steichen a jolt of energy to get this team back on track.
Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama
No change for the Cardinals from my Mock Draft 1.0. Anderson, who had 27.5 sacks and 54 tackles for loss over the past two seasons, is an elite edge player who would help new coach Jonathan Gannon’s defense on Day 1. The former Eagles defensive coordinator is known for his ability to scheme up pressure looks, and he would have a blast moving Anderson around the line of scrimmage. Anderson is a complete defender, the type of guy to build a defense around.
The Cardinals ranked 31st in points allowed per game last season (26.4), so Anderson isn’t the only player this unit needs. If I were Arizona general manager Monti Ossenfort, I’d also bring back free agent tackle Zach Allen so Anderson could have some help next to him. Again, though, this is a great way to start for the new regime.
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Like I wrote earlier, Chicago should be exceedingly happy in this scenario, trading down three spots and adding an elite defender and valuable picks. Carter is a fantastic player, a game-wrecker from the interior with a 310-pound frame. He’s the top-ranked prospect on my board. In Chicago, he’d immediately upgrade a porous defense that ranked last in the league in sacks (20). What’s not to like?
The other scenario the Bears could consider, of course, is trading Justin Fields and drafting a quarterback with the top pick. I just don’t see general manager Ryan Poles doing that, even though there’s some logic in starting over the rookie contract clock — Poles & Co. will have to make a decision on Fields’ fifth-year option after the 2023 season. I think Chicago is more likely to try to upgrade the playmakers around Fields this offseason, helping its young dual-threat signal-caller and putting him in a better position to succeed.
Projected trade: Carolina strikes for a QB
Here we go with trade No. 3 in this mock draft. Carolina is lurking in the top 10. It has the draft assets — the No. 9 overall pick, along with extra second-, third- and fifth-round picks from the Christian McCaffrey trade — to move up to get a passer. It just needs a trade partner. In this scenario, it could send that entire package (and potentially more) to move up four spots with Seattle. Really, the Panthers’ situation is not dissimilar from the Colts’, as they have struck out on recent trades (Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield) to get the quarterback position fixed. General manager Scott Fitterer and new coach Frank Reich have to get this right.
For the Seahawks, who already have two first- and two second-round picks in this draft because of the Russell Wilson deal, this is a chance to move down a few spots and acquire more prime capital. They were much better than expected last season, buoyed by a spectacular 2022 draft class, but they have a few holes on defense and still have questions about Geno Smith‘s future. These picks could help — and Seattle wouldn’t be moving down too much.
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The reality is we’re going to know much more about Carolina’s draft plans once free agency plays out in a few weeks. If Carolina doesn’t add Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo (or Aaron Rodgers!), it’s going to be desperate for one of these top quarterbacks, which makes a trade up more likely. The Panthers’ only passers under contract are 2022 third-round pick Matt Corral — who was added by former coach Matt Rhule — and 25-year-old journeyman Jacob Eason. Yes, they could add a veteran bridge quarterback, too, but if they like Levis, they shouldn’t pass up the opportunity to move up a few spots to get him.
Levis isn’t loved by every NFL scout, but his potential is really high. He has a cannon for an arm, even if he can be a little sloppy with the ball at times. He played in a pro-style offense for the Wildcats and didn’t have much elite talent around him, especially along the offensive line. Will he excel once he gets around a step up in talent? That’s a bet a team will be willing to take. Carolina will have a chance to build around him, starting this offseason. If the Panthers choose to stay at No. 9, by the way, keep an eye on a pass-rusher. Tight end is a need, too, but that’s early for one, even in a talented class.
Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
I wrote in January this was a little high for the Lions to take a cornerback, but I’ve come around on the ceiling of this corner class. We could see two in the top 10. People I talk to in the NFL believe Gonzalez is going to test off the charts at the combine, and Devon Witherspoon (Illinois) and Joey Porter Jr. (Penn State) have a chance to be the No. 1 corner as well. The 6-2 Gonzalez had a stellar 2022 season at Oregon, picking off four passes.
The Lions, who also own the No. 18 overall pick, have to come out of this draft with plug-and-play starters on defense. They finished 2022 last in QBR allowed (55.9) and yards per play allowed (6.2). Whether it’s a pass-rusher or corner here, that’s the direction they should go. And remember, they have an extra second-round pick from the T.J. Hockenson trade, too.
Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Quarterback? Offensive tackle? Edge rusher? Defensive back? The Raiders could go several ways here, including trading up. Like the Panthers, we’ll see much of the Raiders’ offseason plan over the next month, but they need a quarterback who can play right away. That’s not Anthony Richardson (Florida), a project who is the other first-round passer in this class. They’re more likely to be a player in the veteran market. I don’t think Richardson is a fit, so if this scenario plays out and Carolina jumps them for Levis, they’re going to have to go in another direction.
That other direction could be corner, as Las Vegas ranked 31st in QBR allowed (55.3) and tied for last in interceptions (six). Witherspoon is coming off an elite season, allowing 3.3 yards per attempt and zero touchdowns as the primary defender in coverage, according to ESPN’s game charting. At 6-foot-1, he has a big frame, and he’s a willing and able tackler. He could be the Raiders’ top corner as a rookie.
Will McDonald IV, DE, Iowa State
Falcons fans should be familiar with their pass-rushing woes from 2022 — just 21 sacks, second worst in the league — but they might not know much about McDonald. That should change, because McDonald dominated at the Senior Bowl and has moved into top-10 consideration. McDonald, who had 34 sacks in college, including two seasons with more than 10, is a speed rusher who flies around the edge to take down quarterbacks. At 241 pounds, he’s not going to be a fit for every defense, but smart coordinators will stand him up and let him use his speed.
McDonald had a down 2022 season with just five sacks, but the talent is there. He was unblockable at the Senior Bowl. First-year Atlanta defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen should covet an edge rusher here to get his unit back on track. The Falcons are another team that could be in the market for a quarterback, but like Las Vegas, they need a passer who can play early. I don’t have one left on the board in this scenario.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Here’s a team that could afford to take a developmental quarterback with elite upside. Seattle has said it wants to bring back veteran Geno Smith, but what if the organization uses the franchise tag on Smith, plays him for a season and adds Richardson to take over in 2024? That’d be the ideal scenario for Richardson, a raw passer who completed just 53.8% of his throws last season but has incredible ability as a runner. He had 17 touchdown passes and added nine more scores on the ground. At 6-4, Richardson has the type of arm strength that makes NFL coaches drool. If he gets into the right situation — and isn’t forced to play early — he could be a star.
The Seahawks make the most sense for Richardson because they have the picks to take a chance on a high-ceiling prospect, including what they’re getting in the projected trade with the Panthers. If they don’t go with Richardson, they likely would be all-in on the edge rushers, with Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech) and Myles Murphy (Clemson) still available.
2:24
Why Mel Kiper Jr. thinks Anthony Richardson needs time to develop
Mel Kiper Jr. shares why any team prepared to draft Florida QB Anthony Richardson needs to give him time to develop.
Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Let’s keep a strength a strength for the Eagles. With right guard Isaac Seumalo a free agent and center Jason Kelce mulling retirement, why not take the best lineman in this class? Cam Jurgens, a second-round pick last year, likely would slot in Kelce’s place, while Skoronski could fill the void at right guard. Some teams believe Skoronski could be a better fit at guard than tackle, even though he started 33 games at left tackle in college. No matter where he plays, he should be an instant starter.
We know general manager Howie Roseman appreciates the trenches, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the direction he goes. The other side of that, of course, is Roseman could target an edge rusher, particularly with Robert Quinn and Brandon Graham free agents. Roseman also has the No. 30 pick to add a player.
Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
This is the same projection as January’s mock draft, when I wrote that left tackle Taylor Lewan could be a cap casualty. Well, Lewan was released recently along with a handful of other veterans, leaving a gaping hole on the left side of the line. Johnson played some guard in college, but he came into his own as the Buckeyes’ left tackle last season, allowing just two sacks and 10 pressures as C.J. Stroud‘s blindside protector. If he lands in Tennessee, he could play on the same line as Nicholas Petit-Frere, whom he replaced at left tackle for Ohio State. Petit-Frere, a third-round pick last season, played right tackle for the Titans as a rookie.
Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
I went quarterback for the Texans at No. 2, which is the best way for this organization to continue its rebuild. Let’s try to improve one of the most important positions on defense with this pick from the Deshaun Watson trade. Houston’s defense was a little bit better than its offense last season, but it still lacks playmakers in the front seven. Wilson could help there, though there are mixed opinions on him throughout the league. He had 14 sacks over the past two seasons, and at 6-foot-6, 275 pounds, he has tremendous physical tools. That said, he’s coming off a broken foot that ended his season, and his combine medicals will be important. As a traditional 4-3 defensive end, he still needs to keep developing his pass-rush repertoire.
Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
The Jets have major issues at offensive tackle. Mekhi Becton, the No. 11 overall pick in 2020, has played one game over the past two seasons. George Fant, who was limited to seven starts last season, is a free agent, while Duane Brown is 37 years old. They might have to fill both tackle spots this offseason. Luckily for New York, this is a Round 1 filled with solid tackles. Harrison started 24 games at left tackle for the Sooners over the past two seasons, allowing one sack and seven total pressures. He could play right tackle, too. He’s a great fit for the Jets, who could have a new quarterback for which to block.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
The Patriots have a new offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien and could look completely different on that side of the ball in 2023. That’s a good thing, because quarterback Mac Jones regressed last season. He’d benefit greatly from Smith-Njigba, a true No. 1 wideout who knows how to get open. Smith-Njigba is coming off a season in which a nagging hamstring injury limited him to five catches total, but he led Ohio State in catches (95) and yards (1,606) in 2021. Assuming his medicals check out and his hamstring won’t be an issue, he’ll be my top-ranked wideout in this class. There’s no consensus within the league on this receiver class at the top.
If Bill Belichick & Co. go a different direction, cornerback Joey Porter Jr. (Penn State) could be the pick, particularly if free agent corner Jonathan Jones departs. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Pats targeted an offensive tackle.
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
I’m sticking with a tight end for the Packers, but really, we’re in the dark until quarterback Aaron Rodgers decides his future and whether he wants to play for Green Bay or request a trade. That could change this organization’s priorities. No matter who is playing quarterback, though, tight end (or wideout) is a need. Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis are free agents, and the Packers had 670 receiving yards by tight ends a year ago, which ranked 25th in the league.
Mayer is an all-around tight end who had 180 catches for 2,099 yards and 18 touchdowns in three seasons for the Fighting Irish. He’s not afraid to block, but his value comes in stretching the seams and going up for and coming down with tough catches. Depending on how the rest of Green Bay’s offseason goes, I could also see general manager Brian Gutekunst trying to upgrade at offensive tackle or along the defensive line.
Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
This is the end of a mini-run on offensive linemen, with four projected in seven picks from Nos. 10 to 16. It’s a really solid class. Wright has the most experience of the bunch. He started 42 games for the Volunteers, with 27 at right tackle, 13 at left tackle and two at right guard. That versatility is attractive to NFL teams, though I expect him to stick at right tackle at the next level.
The Commanders need an injection of talent along the O-line. They ranked 28th in both yards per play on offense (4.9) and yards per rush on offense (4.0) last season. They could move inconsistent 2021 second-rounder Sam Cosmi to guard, which would free up the right tackle spot. Broderick Jones (Georgia) is another right tackle to keep an eye on, though I have him ranked below Wright.
Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
I’m sticking with this pairing from January, with Porter projected to the team that drafted his father in the third round in 1999. Even if free agent Cam Sutton returns, the Steelers could use a corner, with the 6-foot-2 Porter next on my board. He didn’t allow a single touchdown in coverage last season, and quarterbacks averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt when he was the nearest defender in coverage. While I would have like to see him come down with more interceptions — he had one in 30 college starts — he broke up 11 passes last season, so the ball skills are there. Pittsburgh is another team that likely will be hoping one of the top offensive tackles drops here.
Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas
Back to the Lions, to whom I projected a cornerback with the No. 6 pick. They should double dip on defense in Round 1, and Sanders, my top-ranked inside linebacker, would really help them. Again, this defense ranked near the bottom of the league in most statistical categories, so the Lions could go with the best defender left on their board. Sanders, a transfer from Alabama, stuffed the stat sheet in his lone season at Arkansas — 111 tackles, 16 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception. His pass-rush upside means he could move around the defense and make plays, and he should be a three-down defender.
I thought about tight end for Detroit because it’s a talented class at the top, and there’s a hole after the TJ Hockenson trade, but the team likely could address the position on Day 2. It should use Day 1 to focus on defense.
Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Tampa Bay is another team with short- and long-term questions at quarterback, but I don’t have another passer with a first-round grade on my board. General manager Jason Licht is going to have to find one in the veteran market. He could instead focus on an aging defense with this pick. If Jamel Dean leaves in free agency, the Bucs will have a huge void at one cornerback spot. Forbes is a great option to fill it. He’s a bit of a boom-or-bust defender — he had 14 interceptions over three seasons, but he also gave up a few long touchdowns — and he has a smaller frame; he was listed at 180 pounds. If he puts up a great 40-yard dash time at the combine, this is the range he will go in April’s draft.
Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
My projected trade between Carolina and Seattle gave the Seahawks some extra capital for moving down four spots, but this is their original pick after a surprise 9-8 season. And if they want to keep improving, they have to add young talent to their front seven. As I mentioned in January, Darrell Taylor, a 2020 second-round pick, is coming off a breakout 9.5-sack season, while Uchenna Nwosu also had 9.5 quarterback takedowns, but they’re both entering the final years of their contracts. The Seahawks need to get more production from other players.
Murphy had 17.5 sacks in three seasons at Clemson, and at 6-5, 275 pounds, he’s also strong against the run. Seattle ranked 27th in yards per carry allowed (4.9) last season, so that’s an area to upgrade. One position to watch: The Seahawks lost middle linebacker Jordyn Brooks to a torn right ACL in January, so they could try to add another off-ball ‘backer to help in 2023.
Jordan Addison, WR, USC
A few ill-timed injuries last season meant quarterback Justin Herbert was targeting DeAndre Carter and Joshua Palmer as his primary receivers, and that’s just not good enough. With Keenan Allen a potential salary cap casualty, now is the time for the Chargers to add a young wideout. Addison had 100 catches for 1,592 yards and 17 scores at Pitt in 2021, winning the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s best receiver. After transferring to USC last year, he was hampered by an unspecified injury, limiting him to 59 catches for 875 yards and eight scores. When healthy, though, he is a quarterback’s dream. He can play in the slot or out wide, and he’s a smooth route runner.
L.A. again had major issues stopping the run last season — it ranked last in yards per carry allowed (5.4) — so keep an eye on a front-seven player here.
3:02
Who are the top WR’s in the 2023 NFL draft?
Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay name their top wide receivers available in the 2023 NFL draft.
Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
No matter who’s playing quarterback for the Ravens next season — I still think Lamar Jackson will return, even if it’s on the franchise tag — he needs playmakers to catch his passes. As I mentioned in January, the organization didn’t get enough out of its receivers in 2022, ranking last in receiving yards by wideouts (1,517). Rashod Bateman hasn’t been on the field enough after he was picked in Round 1 in 2021. Can general manager Eric DeCosta find a great pass-catcher here? I think so. Flowers is one of my favorite prospects in this entire class. He had 200 catches in four seasons at BC, including 12 touchdowns last season. He can line up in the slot and make things easier on quarterbacks.
Defensive tackle Bryan Bresee (Clemson) could be another option for DeCosta and Baltimore; he has some pass-rush upside and is stout as a run defender.
Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
New mock draft, same position the Vikings should target. New defensive coordinator Brian Flores wants to be aggressive, but he needs the cornerbacks to do that, even if free agent Patrick Peterson returns. The 6-foot-2 Banks is coming off a breakout season in which he locked down opposing wideouts — often in man-to-man coverage — and had eight pass breakups and a pick. His tape is impressive, and I’ve heard he’s going to run in the low 4.3-second range in the 40-yard dash at the combine. That’s elite for his size. Andrew Booth Jr., a second-round pick last year, should be in the mix for more snaps, but Banks has No. 1 corner potential.
Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa
The Jaguars are an ascending and talented team, but their pass rush disappointed last season. No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker had 3.5 sacks in an up-and-down season, while they ranked 28th in percentage of sacks per dropback (5.2%). The best way to help the secondary — and create turnovers — is with a great pass rush, so this has to get better. That’s why I like Van Ness’ fit in Jacksonville. At 6-foot-5, 270 pounds, he’s a bit of a tweener, but smart defensive coordinators will use that to their advantage, moving him outside and inside to let him get after quarterbacks. He has some explosion and power at the snap, and he uses his hands well. If the Jags want to target more of a pure edge rusher, BJ Ojulari (LSU) could be an option. He’s right on the fringes of Round 1 right now.
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
I expect both quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Saquon Barkley to return — one of them likely will get the franchise tag, while the other could get a long-term deal — in which case general manager Joe Schoen should add more help to this offense. The Giants don’t have a No. 1 or No. 2 wideout on their roster, and Wan’Dale Robinson, a second-round pick last year, is most effective out of the slot. Johnston is the big, fast and physical receiver they need.
At 6-foot-4, he is tremendous after the catch, breaking tackles and running for long touchdowns. He understands how to use his frame to high-point the ball in the air. Jones has improved every season, but he has never had a player who can make contested catches like Johnston. Schoen should make this happen in April.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Let’s replace Dalton Schultz with another Dalton. Schultz, who played on the franchise tag in Dallas last season, could leave in free agency, in which case the Cowboys must find a replacement. Kincaid, a 6-foot-4, 240-pound player with great hands, could step in and be a comparable pass-catcher from Day 1. He caught 106 passes and had 16 scores for the Utes over the past two seasons, and he makes tough catches look simple. He torched defenses down the middle of the field, and he has improved as a blocker. Dak Prescott would love Kincaid’s ability to find space. Kincaid might even be the first tight end off the board.
I thought again about running back Bijan Robinson (Texas), but I think I found a better fit to get Robinson into Round 1 …
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Robinson is a top-10 prospect just based on talent in this draft, but it was tough finding a perfect fit for him. Teams (rightly) aren’t taking running backs in the top 10 anymore, choosing instead to find values in the middle and late rounds. While I agree with that strategy, there comes a point in Round 1 in which it does make sense to snag a running back as talented as Robinson, and that’s here. The Bills could get a complete back — Robinson is stellar between the tackles and has great hands as a pass-catcher — and a player who can make quarterback Josh Allen‘s life easier. This is a way for the Buffalo offense to take the next step.
If general manager Brandon Beane passes on Robinson, keep an eye on the offensive linemen. Guard O’Cyrus Torrence (Florida) is a mauler in the run game who could start immediately.
2:44
Who is the best RB in the 2023 draft?
Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay look to Texas’ Bijan Robinson as their top running back in the 2023 NFL draft.
Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
As I mentioned in January, the Bengals got 556 receiving yards from their tight ends this season, which ranked 29th in the league. Most of that came from Hayden Hurst, who is a free agent. If they want to get quarterback Joe Burrow some more help, the 6-foot-6 Musgrave makes sense. A knee injury ended his 2022 season after two games, but he was emerging as a star. Though he had just 47 career catches for the Beavers, his potential is immense. He’s also expected to test extremely well at the combine. Like Kincaid, Musgrave is still battling to be the No. 1 tight end off the board.
Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
Yes, this makes four tight ends in the first round. The Saints, who got this pick as part of the Broncos hiring Sean Payton, could go in several directions here. I could see arguments for defensive line, cornerback or safety. But they also have a huge hole at tight end. Juwan Johnson was fine last season — 42 catches, seven touchdowns — but they could upgrade with Washington, who is one of the most physically gifted and talented tight ends I’ve scouted. People who are 6-foot-7, 250 pounds are not supposed to move as fluidly as he does.
The question is production: Washington had 45 catches and three touchdowns in three seasons for the Bulldogs, and Brock Bowers, a top 2024 prospect, put up much more impressive numbers. I think a team will bet on Washington’s talent in the top 40 picks, but you do wonder why he wasn’t used more for the back-to-back national champs. New Orleans likely will have a new starting quarterback, so let’s get that passer some help.
Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt
Eagles fans might recognize this projection from my first mock draft, when I had Kancey to Philly with its No. 10 pick. This is still a great pairing. Kancey is an undersized (280 pounds) tackle who could play the 3-technique spot next to 2022 first-rounder Jordan Davis, rushing the passer from the interior and generally wreaking havoc on guards and centers. Kancey likely is a fit only for teams that play a 4-3, but he explodes into backfields at the snap.
I gave the Eagles an offensive lineman earlier in Round 1, and safety Brian Branch could be in consideration with this choice. And if they want a different defensive tackle, Mazi Smith (Michigan) and Bryan Bresee (Clemson) are next up in my rankings.
Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The Chiefs could lose both tackles this offseason, with Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie hitting free agency. I think they are more likely to get a long-term deal done with Brown, though. That means they might not have the cap space to give Wylie a raise, instead looking toward the draft for his replacement. Jones is a little more raw than the top tackles in this class — he started 19 games for Georgia — but he’s a mauler who didn’t allow a sack last season. He has great feet and could move over to the right side for Kansas City.
If general manager Brett Veach wants to add a wideout here, Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee) is the guy to know. He’s a deep threat with outstanding vertical speed — he could run in the 4.2-second range in the 40-yard dash at the combine.
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