NFL odds: How bookmakers set lines for the Super Bowl, Chiefs-Eagles

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Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Since Sunday night, discussion about Super Bowl odds has been all the rage in the sports betting universe. And the volume will only ramp up more between now and the Feb. 12 kickoff, set for approximately 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports App.

But for oddsmakers, that discussion began well before Sunday night.

Tom Gable, director of race and sports at the Borgata Hotel Casino in Atlantic City, N.J., lifted the curtain on Super Bowl LVII oddsmaking for the big matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

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Four on the Floor

The process actually began once the San Francisco 49ers wrapped up their 19-12 rock-fight win over the Dallas Cowboys on Jan. 22, the final game of the divisional round. Prior to that, the Chiefs beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-20; the Eagles drummed the New York Giants 38-7; and the Cincinnati Bengals upset the Buffalo Bills 27-10.

Obviously, the next step was setting odds for the 49ers vs. Eagles NFC Championship Game and the Bengals vs. Chiefs AFC Championship Game. But very shortly thereafter, Super Bowl odds entered the chat between Gable and his team in the risk room. The Borgata sportsbook is part of BetMGM, but its risk room operates autonomously, setting and moving its own odds.

“Pretty much when the conference championship games are set, you have spreads already made for all of the potential matchups for the Super Bowl,” Gable said. “Everyone has their own power ratings, and by that point, there isn’t much difference in who is rated where – maybe a half point here or there. You’re pretty much looking at health, key injuries and anything else that could potentially adjust someone’s ratings.

“But everyone’s ratings are very solid by the time the NFC and AFC Championship Games occur.”

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The Mahomes Factor

Of course, the biggest storyline to evolve from the divisional round was Patrick Mahomes’ high ankle sprain. It was a big reason why, early last week, the Bengals were favored on the road against the Chiefs. So it also was part of the early conversation – pre-AFC Championship Game – on Super Bowl odds for a potential Chiefs-Eagles or Chiefs-49ers matchup.

Gable and his fellow oddsmakers then got a much better feel for things while watching Mahomes play in K.C.’s 23-20 victory the Bengals.

Said Gable: “As long as there weren’t any significant injuries in the NFC game – which there weren’t for the Eagles, but extra attention was paid to Jalen Hurts, who is coming off an injury – you basically already have a number for the two potential matchups.”

Those matchups being either Eagles-Chiefs or Eagles-Bengals.

“We knew Mahomes was compromised with the high ankle sprain going into the AFC Championship Game,” Gable said. “So you had to pay attention to how he looked, how he moved, etc., as Mahomes was certainly going to be key to the number if the Chiefs advanced to the Super Bowl.”

Kansas City indeed advanced, but oddsmakers’ opinions were definitely split on what the Super Bowl 57 opening line should be. And not just because of Mahomes, but because K.C.’s receiving corps got banged up against Cincy, as did a couple of key defenders.

Some sportsbooks actually opened the Chiefs as much as 2.5-point favorites, but most bookmakers opened at either pick or Eagles -1/-1.5.

“Once the matchup was set, we knew there were some injuries that the Chiefs suffered, unfortunately,” Gable said. “And while Mahomes didn’t seem to do any further damage, it was clear he wasn’t at 100%. Still, from a pure power rating, I would have made the Chiefs a 1-point favorite. But you saw those that opened first, with the Chiefs as a favorite or even at pick ‘em, moved to the Eagles as a favorite fairly quickly.

“Plus, Philadelphia is essentially in the backyard of Atlantic City, and we always get Eagles money. So opening the Eagles as a favorite was the right choice for us.”

Bettors Flock to Philly

The Borgata opened at Eagles -1.5, but as Gable and his oddsmaking peers at sportsbooks across the country quickly learned Sunday night, that still wasn’t enough.

“Early money was almost all Eagles,” Gable said. “We did reach [Eagles] -2.5 early, and that was the high-water mark. Then there was some buyback on the Chiefs.”

With that buyback has come some movement. Late Wednesday night, with still a week and a half to go, Philadelphia was down to -1.5. That’s right where Gable and his team started, but don’t be surprised if it’s not where this line finishes. There’s a long way to go until kickoff.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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