After opening at pick ’em, the Philadelphia Eagles are now small favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. It is on track to be one of the tightest Super Bowl lines in the history of the game. It would mark the first time Patrick Mahomes is a postseason underdog in his career.
Let’s dive into the history and trends.
Chiefs’ and Eagles’ futures history
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The Chiefs were +650 to win the Super Bowl when odds were first released last February, but they fell to 11-1 entering the season, the longest odds they were at any point this season. When the regular season ended, the Chiefs were +340 favorites.
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The Chiefs are tracking to become the first team to enter the playoffs as the outright Super Bowl favorite and then be an underdog in the Super Bowl since 2004. That year, the Eagles entered the playoffs as +500 favorites before losing in Super Bowl XXXIX as seven-point underdogs against the New England Patriots.
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Meanwhile, the Eagles were 40-1 when odds opened, and they were as long as 50-1 prior to the A.J. Brown trade. They were 25-1 when the season started. That would make them the biggest preseason long shots to win the Super Bowl since 2017, the only other time the Eagles won the Super Bowl (40-1 preseason).
Season results
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The Chiefs are 8-11 ATS this season. They are the sixth team to reach the Super Bowl with a losing ATS record. Four of the previous five lost the Super Bowl.
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The Chiefs’ 11 ATS losses are the most ever by a team entering the Super Bowl and their 8-11 ATS record is the second-worst percentage entering the game. Only the 1997 Packers (6-9-3 ATS) were worse. That Packers team lost to the Denver Broncos as 11-point favorites in Super Bowl XXXII. Despite the poor ATS record, the Chiefs have gone 5-0 outright and ATS against NFC teams this season.
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The Chiefs also had the highest average over/under in the NFL this season at 49.8. Unders were 11-8 in Chiefs games, compared to overs going 10-9 in Eagles games.
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As for the Eagles, they enter the Super Bowl at 10-9 ATS after covering back-to-back playoff games. The Eagles are 9-3 ATS this season in Jalen Hurts starts when favored by 8 points or less.
Everything you need to know to bet Super Bowl LVII
Rare underdog role for Mahomes
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For the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs are likely underdogs in a playoff game. Last week, the Chiefs were underdogs early in the week against the Cincinnati Bengals but closed as favorites.
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Mahomes’ 13 playoff starts without being an underdog is the longest streak by any quarterback to begin his career in the Super Bowl era. It’s also one shy of Peyton Manning’s record in that span. It also would snap the Chiefs’ 15-game streak of being postseason favorites, which is the longest streak by any team in that span.
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It would be just the 10th time in Patrick Mahomes’ career that he has been an underdog and the first time in the playoffs. No quarterback in the Super Bowl era has made more starts to begin his career before his 10th career game as an underdog (94th career start).
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Mahomes has also been very successful as an underdog. He is 6-3 outright as an underdog, tied with Jimmy Garoppolo (14-7) for the best outright winning percentage as an underdog in the Super Bowl era (min. 8 starts).
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He is also 7-1-1 ATS as an underdog, which is the best ATS record by any QB as an underdog (min. 8 starts). The only ATS loss came the last time he was an underdog — Week 6 against the Buffalo Bills.
Super Bowl history
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Through 56 Super Bowls, favorites and underdogs are an even 27-27-2 ATS in the Super Bowl. However, underdogs have had the upper hand recently, going 8-7 outright and 10-5 ATS in the past 15 Super Bowls.
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Last season, the Cincinnati Bengals lost but covered the 4.5-point spread against the Los Angeles Rams.
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The past four Super Bowls went under the total. Unders are 28-26-1 all-time in the Super Bowl (excluding Super Bowl I).
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The line opened pick’em at Caesars Sportsbook before quickly moving to the Eagles favored 16 minutes later. There has never been a Super Bowl that closed pick’em. This would be the ninth Super Bowl to close with a line under a field goal and the fifth to close under two. The closest Super Bowl spread is one (Patriots vs. Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX and Bengals vs. 49ers in Super Bowl XVI).
Rounds of unders
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The 2022 NFL postseason started with all five games on Saturday and Sunday of Super Wild Card Weekend going over the total. However, since then, all seven playoff games have gone under the total, including all four divisional round games and both conference championships.
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The Eagles’ past six playoff games went under the total. Four straight Eagles’ games this season have gone under the total, while three straight Chiefs games have gone under the total.
Super Bowl MVP history
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Jalen Hurts is the +125 favorite to win Super Bowl MVP, followed closely by Patrick Mahomes at +130. This is the first time both starting quarterbacks have had odds of +150 or shorter to win Super Bowl MVP in the past 15 seasons. The only other time both quarterbacks entered with odds shorter than +200 was in 2020 (Patrick Mahomes: -105, Tom Brady: +190).
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Hurts seeks to be just the fifth favorite to win Super Bowl MVP in the past 15 seasons. The most recent betting favorites to win Super Bowl MVP are Patrick Mahomes (2019). Tom Brady (2014, 2016) and Aaron Rodgers (2010) also accomplished the feat recently.
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Meanwhile, Mahomes has the shortest odds of any player on the underdog team in the last 20 Super Bowls. He is the third player on the underdog team in the past 20 seasons to be +200 or shorter to win Super Bowl MVP. The previous two both won Super Bowl MVP (2020 Tom Brady was +190, 2011 Eli Manning was +200).
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Travis Kelce (10-1) has the shortest Super Bowl MVP odds by any tight end since 2014 (Rob Gronkowski: 8-1). Last year, Cooper Kupp won the Super Bowl MVP at 6-1, the shortest odds of any non-quarterback in the game.
Notable props (as of Jan. 31)
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Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards prop is 285.5. His average prop has been 294.4, while his average pass yards per game is 303.7. He has gone over his passing prop in 12 of 19 games.
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His prop in Week 18 was 324.5, the highest for any player in any game this season, while it was 311.5 in the divisional round against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Following his ankle injury, his prop closed at 282.5 in the AFC Championship Game.
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This is the first time all season Mahomes’ passing touchdowns prop sits at 1.5 (juiced -224 to the over). It had been 2.5 in every game this season. He went under that mark in five of his past six games.
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Mahomes’ interception odds of -131 are also his second-shortest odds this season (-133 in Week 13 at Bengals).
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Jalen Hurts’ prop is at 245.5, slightly higher than his season average of 237.5 (average YPG: 233.9). In the NFC Championship Game, his prop closed at 251.5, his highest mark all season. However, he finished with a season-low 121 passing yards.
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Hurts’ current completions (21.5) and attempts (32.5) props are tied for his highest all season.
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Miles Sanders’ rushing props have been a roller coaster over the last few weeks. In Week 17, his prop was 77.5 yards, tied for his highest mark all season. By the NFC Championship Game, it slipped to 50.5, tying a season low. It has rebounded a little bit this week, jumping up seven yards to 57.5.
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Travis Kelce has the highest receiving prop in the game at 76.5. He has gone over his receptions and receiving yards props in both playoff games.
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A.J. Brown’s prop is set at 71.5 receiving yards for a third straight game after posting a total of 50 yards in his two playoff games combined. He had gone over his prop in his past four regular-season games.
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DeVonta Smith has also gone under his receiving yards prop in both playoff games. He went over his prop in his final six regular-season games.
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Historic futures odds from SportsOddsHistory.com
