I have not wagered on the side or the total. It feels un-American, and I hate myself for it. Even providing a pick for ESPN.com and various outlets on Radio Row throughout Super Bowl week in Arizona felt arduous because I take it so seriously. I went with the Eagles 27-17, but I have never had less conviction for a championship game. Simply put, it’s difficult to handicap when both quarterbacks are not fully healthy. Additionally, this stylistic matchup lends itself to giant unknowns. Patrick Mahomes is the ultimate cheat code and can win any game all by himself. The Eagles been trucking opponents and all the analytics love them, but they have faced questionable opponents the past couple of months.
In fact, as of now, all my sportsbook sources share that most wiseguys have yet to play the side or total. Initially, sharp action moved the point spread to the Eagles as 1.5-point favorites, but it has been fairly quiet for the past 10 days. Of course, the respected wagers could arrive today, but they may not. Last year, they mostly avoided the side with the Rams and Bengals but the sharps did back the Bucs against Mahomes and the Chiefs two years ago.
But here’s the good news. I have wagered more money on Super Bowl props this year than ever before. My overall betting philosophy is to embrace any issues rather than fight them. If this matchup offers unknowns and variance, then I will lean into that. I firmly believe oddsmakers have mispriced some indexes, and the probabilities do not match the payouts. I see tons of opportunity and so do professional bettors, and I did my best to aggregate the top intel.
Favorite plays
Mahomes’ first completion under 10.5 yards (-140 at DraftKings). This is my top play. Each sportsbook has this prop lined between 7.5 and 10.5 yards so make sure you shop around. I prefer laying the most juice at 10.5 because I value each yard more than the market does. Conventional wisdom suggests that Kansas City will attack this vaunted pass rush by making them go east and west to soften Philly’s aggression. Also, given the bright lights of America’s biggest sporting event, a logical approach is to call safe plays to settle any nerves. The last thing any offense wants is a three-and-out, so I doubt we see a conventional deep dropback on the first drive. And for what it’s worth, Mahomes’ first completion in his last Super Bowl went for 3 yards. In Mahomes’ first appearance, Andy Reid called two short passes to a running back that were incomplete. His first completion, which came on the game’s third drive, went for 9 yards to Tyreek Hill.
Mahomes’ first rush over 3.5 yards (-150 at Caesars). This pricing accounts for the possibility of a quarterback sneak. However, Kansas City has not run a QB sneak over the past three seasons, including the playoffs. He had 41 rush attempts this year without a designed run. However, the Chiefs did run the option on the goal line in the 2020 division round win over Cleveland. That’s as close as they got in a short-yardage situation but that was in 2020, and he’s currently nursing an ankle injury. Will they really call designed runs against Philly’s defensive front? Remember, a sack does not count against NFL rushing yards. So, this would entail a scenario where Mahomes is flushed from the pocket. Given Philly led the league in sacks, I expect Mahomes to be under steady pressure. If he escapes, he should be able to gain at least 4 yards on that first tote. This season, he averaged 7.8 yards per carry in the first half.
Kenneth Gainwell most rushing yards (15-1 at DraftKings), first to 40 yards (20-1 at DraftKings) and MVP (100-1 at DraftKings) – This is where the variance truly resonates. The market prices him as though he is backing up Derrick Henry or another established running back that is guaranteed at least 20 carries. Rather, both Kansas City and Philly treat their backfield as a committee. Sure, they have lead backs, but this is far from a predictable script. So I will lean into this unknown and take a few fliers that Gainwell thrives. For all we know, he is better suited for the Eagles’ game plan against a K.C. defense. We’ve often seen playoff teams turn to the hot hand or fresher running back. Why not Gainwell? I also like over 4.5 rush attempts and 19.5 rushing yards, but keep in mind sharp money did arrive on under 19.5.
Isiah Pacheco over 1.5 receptions (-184 at Caesars), over 15.5 receiving yards (-121 at Caesars), race to 20 receiving yards (19-1 at DraftKings) and race to 40 receiving yards (30-1 at DraftKings). This also plays to the variance. If Kansas City’s game plan is to matriculate up the field and keep Philly’s defense off balance, then they will use Pacheco’s speed. He will get customary handoffs, but swing passes and pop passes also make a lot of sense. He is a wild card and could have a giant impact, allowing the Chiefs to gain yards on the edges. Also, he’s +800 to register KC’s first reception, which just occurred in the AFC title game.
Jerick McKinnon over 2.5 receptions (-151 at Caesars) and over 19.5 receiving yards (-142 at Caesars). There is a chance McKinnon dominates the snaps and usage due to his pass-blocking skills. Reid may just prefer him against Philly’s pass rush and be willing to compromise Pacheco’s speed. Pacheco is a rookie and could be the odd man out with weak pass-blocking, so these props may provide some covers on the Pacheco plays. We also have a chance of hitting most for a nice scoop.
Philadelphia to have more rushing yards (-300 at Caesars). This opened -200 and is now fairly juicy, but it’s hard to envision the Chiefs out-rushing the Eagles. For context, Philly’s rushing prop is 149.5 yards and Kansas City’s is 100.5. -300 translates to 75%, and I believe the Eagles’ chances to have more rushing yards are still higher. I would not empty the bank accounts, but it’s still worth playing, in my eyes. And maybe some sportsbooks will let you parlay it with other props. You won’t get rich but I do think there is a little value.
Any non-QB throw a TD pass (15-1 at DraftKings). This is a fun prop that I think is worth playing. Reid is as creative a playcaller as there is, so we have to expect the unexpected. Plus, he may need some trickery to solve a Philly defense that only allowed two quarterbacks to throw more than 225 yards this season. The Eagles could also open up the playbook. For perspective, Joe Mixon threw a touchdown pass in last year’s Super Bowl without a single pass attempt all regular season. Five years ago, the “Philly Special” cemented its place in football lore. That came after an Eagles regular season that did not feature a pass attempt by any non-QB.
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