Elite 8 predictions, expert picks, best bets for NCAA tournament

Jason McIntyre

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The 2023 NCAA Tournament has been super exciting thus far. Will the last-second fireworks keep exploding? The trend continued in the Sweet 16, with UCLA falling to Gonzaga in spectacular fashion. I still can’t believe the Zags won!

We’re betting on every single game in some way, shape or form throughout all of March Madness. You read that right: Every. Single. Game. Whether it’s against the spread (ATS), on the moneyline or picking an Over/Under — we have you covered.

Let’s press onward toward teams cutting down the nets with our Elite Eight picks (with all odds via FOX Bet).

SATURDAY’S GAMES

No. 9 FAU vs. No. 3 Kansas State

There is a slight disconnect between what the advanced metrics say (FAU by 1) and the line (Kansas State -2). The last time we saw something like that, the numbers won, as Tennessee beat Duke.

FAU doesn’t have a great player, just a lot of good ones. Giancarlo Rosado came off the bench to lead them with 15 points in a late win over Memphis; Johnell Davis went for 29 points in the win over FDU and Michael Forrest scored 11 points against Tennessee after not scoring in the first two games.

Kansas State is on a charmed run, getting beaten on the defensive glass in every game while still prevailing. Additionally, they have had little bench participation all season (325th in the country), but got 26 points from that unit in the overtime win over Michigan State.

I like Kansas State here, but every casual better is going to back them because of Markquis Nowell’s heroics. As long as Nowell’s ankle is OK, the best bet here is to back him in what will be an up-tempo game.

Pick: Markquis Nowell Over 17.5 points

Pick: Markquis Nowell Over 8.5 assists

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 3 Gonzaga

Nobody has looked as good as the Huskies through three games, with victories by 24, 15 and 23. However, none of those teams had an offense that ranked in the Top 40 efficiency-wise. Meanwhile, Gonzaga has the best offense in the country.

Yes, UConn is 15-0 in non-Big East games, but the two best offenses in the conference gave the Huskies fits this season. Xavier (seventh in offensive efficiency) went 2-0 against UConn; Marquette (sixth in offense) went 2-1.

The matchup to watch is the unstoppable Drew Timme (85 points in three games) vs 6-foot-9, 245 pound Adama Sanogo. Timme is the Kevin McHale of college basketball — his low post moves are incredible — and Sanogo will have problems. Of course, Timme will have to work harder defensively, and if the Zags send a double at Sanogo, Jordan Hawkins (10-21 on threes in the tournament) will get open looks.

The poor Gonzaga free throw shooting terrifies me — 259th in the country — and they were just 9-of-17 against UCLA. Still, when the world goes one way (UConn), I’ll go the other.

Pick: Gonzaga (+2 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 2 points (or win outright)

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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