The 2023 combine is in the rear-view mirror, and we’re officially inside two months from the 2023 NFL draft. And after a week of prospect measurements, 40-yard dashes and on-field workout drills in Indianapolis, I’m resetting the first round with another mock draft.
This edition of predictions begins with a pair of trades early in Round 1, including a move for one team up to No. 1 overall. Four quarterbacks come off the board in the top nine picks; that matches what I projected in my last mock, but the order of the QBs and a few of the landing spots have changed. Who were the biggest risers from their combine performances?
We’re getting closer to the real thing on April 27, but we still have pro days and plenty of prospect interviews on deck. Things will change, including specific team needs with free agency set to begin next week. But here’s how all 31 picks for Round 1 of the 2023 draft are shaping up after an eventful few days at the combine. (Five teams do not have a pick in the first round, including the Miami Dolphins, who were stripped of their selection for tampering violations.) Oh, and be sure to check out my “SportsCenter” Mock Draft Special.
coverage:
McShay’s rankings | Kiper’s combine risers
Projected trade: Colts secure their QB
It’s time for a long-term solution at QB for the Colts, and that might just mean moving to the top of the board. No team scored fewer points than Indianapolis (15.8 per game) last season, the team’s fifth straight season with a new Week 1 starter under center. The Colts will make it six straight, but this time, it should stick. With a handful of QB-needy teams lurking in the top 10 and the Bears listening on trade offers, Indy can get its top choice by jumping the line.
This shouldn’t be shocking. I projected the same move in my last mock, as did our own Matt Miller. My guy Mel Kiper Jr. also had the Bears sliding down in his pre-combine mock, though it was to No. 2 overall. The return would be dictated by just how much Indy falls in love with a specific passer, but I’d guess the package would include something like the No. 4 pick, a second-rounder (No. 35), a fifth-rounder and maybe even a 2024 Round 1 selection. But which QB does Indy take?
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Three of the top QBs worked out at the combine, but Young wasn’t one of them. No matter. He’s still not only the top quarterback on my board but also the top overall prospect. Young has elite pocket presence and poise, delivering strikes to every level of the field. If the Colts can figure out their offensive line issues, I think this could be a really good fit with first-year coach Shane Steichen.
And even though Young wasn’t participating in on-field drills at the combine, he did have one of the more important numbers of the week: 204. That was his official weight on Saturday morning. He would still be the lightest Round 1 quarterback since at least 2006, as well as one of the shortest passers drafted since the AFL-NFL merger in 1967 at 5-foot-10⅛, but considering the concerns that he’d be down around 190 pounds, this was a big checkpoint for him on the road to potentially becoming the No. 1 pick.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Houston still has a lot of homework to do on the quarterbacks, and we aren’t sure how its internal board sets up, but the projected Colts-Bears trade might not ruin its first night of the draft. Stroud could be the Texans’ answer after they turned in the league’s worst QBR last season (26.0). He threw 41 touchdown passes in 2022 and ended his college career with perhaps his best game. Stroud has terrific touch and can make all of the NFL-level throws, and we saw it again on Saturday when he put together an outstanding throwing session at the combine.
Can GM Nick Caserio and first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans get Stroud some help, though? The Texans pick again at No. 12 and then have a trio of Day 2 selections.
Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama
Arizona fans might be bored with arguably the most-common 2023 mock draft match by now, but they won’t be complaining if Anderson lands with the Cardinals and goes to work off the edge. Displaying relentless power and an explosive first step, Anderson compiled 34.5 sacks and 184 pressures over his three-year career at Alabama. For context, that’s more sacks than one FBS team (South Florida, 30) had over that time, and more pressures than another (James Madison, 135) totaled. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ 36 sacks tied for 23rd in the NFL last season, and after already losing J.J. Watt to retirement, they could also lose Zach Allen in free agency. Those two led the team in sacks.
Anderson’s 4.60-second 40-yard dash was solid, but I was just impressed that he worked out at the combine at all. Scouts love when a top prospect comes out and does all the on-field work even if he has nothing left to prove.
Projected trade: Bears trade down again
If this comes together, the Bears would be the third team since 1967 to trade twice in the top 10 of a draft, joining the 1983 Oilers and 1997 Jets, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. But if the price is right, why not keep moving down? The Bears have Justin Fields under center and plenty of other needs, so draft capital is king for them right now.
Kiper projected a pair of moves for Chicago in his mock, too, though he had them going from No. 1 to No. 2 to No. 4. I’m changing things up, with the Raiders seeking a quarterback in the post-Derek Carr era and moving up from No. 7. I’d imagine the Bears could add at least a third- and fourth-rounder with this move, and Chicago might even be able to get the Raiders’ second-rounder, given Las Vegas’ urgency for a passer. That means GM Ryan Poles could scoop up four or more extra picks across two trades and still only slide to No. 7.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
The Richardson hype train is hitting full steam, plowing through Indianapolis on Saturday. Looking at combine results since 2006, he posted the best quarterback vertical (40.5 inches) and broad jump (10-foot-9), and then rolled out a scorching 4.43-second 40, which tied for the fourth-fastest time at the position over that span. Richardson capped off his big day by showcasing his huge arm in the throwing portions of the afternoon.
His physical traits are exciting, and if coach Josh McDaniels can work with him on his footwork and accuracy, the sky’s the ceiling. On one hand, Richardson threw 17 touchdown passes — including three of 40-plus air yards — and rushed for an FBS QB-high 6.4 yards per carry in 2022. On the other, he completed 54.7% of his throws over 13 career starts. The upside comes with risk, and I do think he might need more time to develop before taking over as an NFL starter. But if the 6-4, 244-pound signal-caller can put it all together, sign me up for big-time throws to Davante Adams and highlight-reel runs on Sundays in Vegas.
1:09
Why Todd McShay thinks Anthony Richardson could be a ‘special talent’
Todd McShay explains why he moved quarterback Anthony Richardson to fourth overall in his mock draft after his impressive NFL Combine.
Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
Wilson didn’t work out in Indy, we haven’t seen him on the field since November and he is recovering from a broken bone in his foot. But the 6-6, 271-pounder has 35 5/8-inch length and overwhelming power. The Seahawks have to clean up their pass rush, and Wilson would be a great start there after he posted back-to-back seasons of seven sacks. Seattle had 45 sacks in 2022 (tied for seventh), but its 33.5% pass rush win rate and 28.9% pressure rate were both bottom-tier results. And now Poona Ford is a free agent, and Uchenna Nwosu is entering the final year of his deal.
Time to get serious about the defensive line, and Seattle has a second first-rounder at No. 20 to continue on that path.
Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
I know I keep using the 6.2 yards allowed per play number for the Lions, but it was the NFL’s sixth-worst number for the past decade. Armed with a pair of first-rounders and a chunk of cap space, Detroit has to get better on that side of the ball. It has gotten up-and-down production from Jeff Okudah, the team’s top-three pick in 2020, and the other corner spot is open with Amani Oruwariye primed to be a free agent next week.
At 6-1 and 197 pounds, Gonzalez confirmed the speed and explosion we saw on tape during the combine. He posted a 4.38 in the 40-yard dash and jumped 41.5 inches in the vertical and 11-foot-1 in the broad. And with four interceptions in 2022, he can make plays on the ball.
Peter Skoronski, OT/G, Northwestern
There were already questions about whether Skoronski fits better as a tackle or guard at the next level, and his 32¼-inch arm length measurement at the combine will keep that chatter alive. Offensive tackles ideally have 34-inch length or more. But he is sudden, almost always balanced in his set and powerful. And the explosion showed up in his vertical (34.5 inches) and broad jump (9-foot-7), both second-best among offensive linemen. Plus, only three sacks over 33 career starts were attributed to him at Northwestern. Braxton Jones looked impressive as a rookie, but the Bears need help on the offensive line.
Alternatively, this would of course be a perfect fit for Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter if Chicago is comfortable with its homework on the still-unclear off-field situation, after Carter was arrested for reckless driving and racing last week. I had Carter landing with the Bears at No. 4 in my last mock, but there’s too much we don’t know right now about what’s next for him.
Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia
Here’s my biggest riser of the combine. I had Smith up at No. 5 in my preseason rankings, but I dropped him quite a bit after a torn pectoral muscle limited him to eight games and three sacks in 2022. He’s back up to No. 10 overall, though. At 238 pounds, he busted out a 4.39-second 40-yard dash, 41.5 inches in the vertical jump and 10-foot-8 in the broad. That’s ridiculous. I love Smith’s closing burst to the QB and the way he can create havoc in the backfield as a run defender. If he works on his pass-rush moves and the way he formulates a plan on every snap, he could be a problem off the edge for opposing offensive coordinators.
After 21 sacks, the Falcons need all the pass-rush help they can get. Lorenzo Carter — who joined Grady Jarrett as the only Atlanta players with at least three sacks last season — was just re-signed, but this team needs more players who can get pressure off the edge.
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
If three QBs do fly off the board in the first four picks, the Panthers might get jumpy and move up the board to make sure Levis doesn’t also escape them. They get lucky here, though. Levis has, in his words, a “cannon” for an arm and can run over defenders when he takes off as a rusher, thanks to a 6-4, 229-pound frame. He battled injuries last season at Kentucky, but teams will wonder if they can fix his mechanics and ball placement, which contributed to 23 interceptions over the past two years. He has so much ball velocity, but he has to get better at knowing when to take something off.
Levis had a lot of experience with pro-style concepts in college, and he could start right out of the gate and connect with DJ Moore on big plays. But I also think the Panthers might want to bring back Sam Darnold or sign another startable QB to ease Levis into action.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
I know, I know. It’s a running back in the top 10, and the Eagles’ defense is littered with free agents. Call it a luxury pick, but this wouldn’t be surprising. Philadelphia leans on the run, Miles Sanders is a free agent and Robinson is a special kind of prospect. He put up 1,580 rushing yards, 20 total TDs, 91 broken tackles and 19 catches last season, and then ran a 4.46 in Indy. He has the contact balance and burst to make defenders miss and move the chains, and I know every other NFC team would be struggling with how to stop an offense that houses Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Robinson. Who do you take away there? There’s no right answer.
As for defense, the Eagles have another first-rounder at No. 30.
Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
I had Johnson to Tennessee in February, too. Then Mel projected the same move two weeks ago. It just makes sense. Johnson is an easy mover with 26 starts across two positions, sliding over to left tackle from right guard in 2022. The Titans released Taylor Lewan, which clears the way for Johnson to come join former Ohio State teammate Nicholas Petit-Frere on the line. He has 6-6, 313-pound size and jarring power in his hands. After allowing 49 sacks (tied for fifth-most) last season, Tennessee should focus on building out from the offensive line and trying to get an offense that was underwhelming in 2022 back on track.
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
I’ll start by stressing that Carter’s draft range is an unknown right now. He was arrested last week on charges of reckless driving and racing in connection with a crash that killed a Bulldogs teammate and a recruiting staff member, and teams are doing their due diligence as they sort through the situation. No one I’ve spoken to around the league knows how it will impact his stock or what comes next. It’s likely Carter will fall a bit, but we don’t know how far — so take this projection with that context.
As for the fit, drafting a wide receiver would obviously be tempting, but Houston is only on offense for half the game and has some issues on defense, too. It gave up 5.1 yards per rush last season (29th) and was middle-of-the-pack in most pass-rush statistics. A top-three prospect in the class on talent alone, Carter plays with power and burst, and he has the traits to emerge as a disruptor on this defensive line.
Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Jones was the fastest lineman at the combine, running a 4.97 in the 40-yard dash. Speed at the position actually translates to success in the NFL. He might have just 19 starts under his belt, but Jones displays a lot of the traits that NFL scouts want to see in an offensive tackle: quick feet, upper-body power, range and snap on initial contact. Oh, and he measured in at 6-5 and 311 pounds with 34 3/4-inch arm length.
Duane Brown is back for the Jets, but he will be 38 years old. George Fant is a free agent, and Mekhi Becton can’t stay healthy. No matter who ends up being the Jets’ quarterback in 2023, protection will be critical. So I love the idea of bringing in a guy who didn’t allow a single sack last season.
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Pats have drafted one receiver in Round 1 since they took Terry Glenn in 1996, and it didn’t go well. N’Keal Harry, selected at No. 32 in 2019, fizzled out in New England after just 598 yards over three seasons. But the Patriots have to do something here. Jakobi Meyers — who was the only WR in New England to crack 550 receiving yards last season — is about to be a free agent, which means quarterback Mac Jones needs a reliable target in the pass game.
At 6-3 and 208 pounds, Johnston can stretch the field and win with physicality at the catch point. He totaled 1,069 yards last season and looked explosive in Indy last week with a 40.5-inch vertical and 11-foot-2 broad jump. I’m curious if he’ll run a 40 at his pro day on March 30 — a good time there could help his stock. The Pats have to see Sauce Gardner, Tre’Davious White and Xavien Howard in coverage twice each per season, so getting help on the outside is a key this offseason.
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
I fit Mayer with Green Bay in my last mock, too. Let’s improve this offensive supporting cast. Christian Watson looked awesome last season, but Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan are free agents. It doesn’t matter if it’s Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love or me throwing the ball, this has to be a focus this offseason. Perhaps GM Brian Gutekunst becomes enamored with a receiver like USC’s Jordan Addison or Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but I’m leaning toward Mayer, a 6-5 tight end with a wide catch radius and some physical traits after the catch. He came down with 67 catches for 809 yards and nine TDs last season, and he can be a serious matchup problem for opponents in the red zone.
Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Witherspoon is rising fast, and I’d expect the Commanders would be among the teams with an eye to Illinois’ pro day on Friday. He allowed 3.2 yards per target last season, second-best in the nation, and picked off three passes. I love his physicality, and Washington really needs someone who can make plays on the outside. Opponent QBs had a 70.0 QBR on throws outside the numbers last season, 23rd in the NFL, and the Commanders didn’t reach double-digit interceptions (nine). Pair Witherspoon with Kendall Fuller, and you have an improvement.
Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Forbes is flying up my board just like he flew in the 40-yard dash on Friday night, posting a 4.35. He has great ball production, picking off 14 passes and breaking up 18 more over three seasons. That fits with the Steelers, who led the league with 20 interceptions last season but could lose Cameron Sutton to free agency. Forbes also measured in at 6-1 and 166 pounds at the combine. Yes, 166 pounds. That might scare some teams off in Round 1, but they shouldn’t discount the high-level instincts and body control that we see on tape.
0:46
MS State’s Forbes details SEC record-breaking pick-6
Emmanuel Forbes breaks the SEC record for career pick-6’s (6) in the Bulldogs’ 56-7 win over ETSU and explains his strategy to get them.
Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa
We already gave the Lions a corner, so a mini-run at the position won’t affect them. They still need defensive support, so give me Van Ness. While he never started a game at Iowa, he played a lot for the Hawkeyes, averaging 450 snaps per season over two years. And Van Ness turned that into seven sacks in each campaign. Add that production to an edge rush group that already includes 2022 picks Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston, and the Lions could be set to improve on the 39 sacks they generated in 2022 (tied for 18th).
It was no surprise when Van Ness tested well in Indianapolis. He has the quickness, power and versatility to dominate in the NFL.
Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
The Bucs could lose Jamel Dean, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Mike Edwards, Keanu Neal and Logan Ryan from their secondary, and they managed just 10 interceptions last season, tied for 24th. Porter might not have the takeaway production just yet after only one pick in college, but he makes plays on the ball, breaking up 11 passes in 2022. I love his instincts and the way he uses his 34-inch length and 6-3 frame to reroute receivers.
Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
Yes, the Seahawks already landed Texas Tech’s Wilson earlier in this mock, but adding to this defensive line is the team’s biggest need now that Geno Smith is headed back to Seattle as QB1. GM John Schneider has to get that unit right, and this could end up a steal. Murphy has power, burst and bend off the edge, and he comes with some versatility. Over the past two seasons, Murphy had 14 sacks, 63 pressures and 23 tackles for loss. So why the slide? There were a few too many times late in the season that he disappeared and didn’t have the same impact for the Tigers. He didn’t have any sacks over the final four games.
Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Mike Williams played 13 games last season, and Keenan Allen appeared in 10. Both have just two years left on their deals, too. So while the Chargers will rightfully be focusing on securing quarterback Justin Herbert for the foreseeable future with a big extension this offseason, they should also think about how they can support him in this offense. Addison has great instincts and burst in the open field, and he can win 50-50 balls downfield. And as we saw with his 4.49-second 40-yard dash, he can create separation on vertical shots, which is Herbert’s bread and butter. Across three seasons at two different schools — he transferred from Pitt in 2022 — Addison piled up 3,134 yards and 29 TD catches.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
When your WR room records a league-low 1,517 receiving yards and 29th-ranked seven TD catches, and you’re also trying to appeal to your unsigned franchise quarterback, you have to take a close look at the receivers in the draft class. Teams got that on Saturday in Indianapolis, and Smith-Njigba was a standout. We hadn’t seen him on the field since his 2022 season ended in October after three games, thanks to a hamstring injury, but he didn’t appear hampered by it during the combine workouts. He showcased his precise route running, soft hands and ability to accelerate upfield. Smith-Njigba might have missed most of 2022, but he did have 1,606 receiving yards in 2021 — more than all of the Ravens’ receivers combined for last season. Now I’m fired up to see JSN run at the Ohio State pro day on March 22.
Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
OK, Mel … I’m sold on Banks. I got your Ravens a receiver and then popped your Maryland guy into the top 25, so no complaints on the mock draft special, please. Banks was really impressive in Indianapolis and is getting a lot of buzz after running 4.35 in the 40, leaping 42 inches in the vert and flying 11-foot-4 in the broad jump. Those are all top-three numbers among corners. And while he had just one pick last season, he did break up 10 passes and limit opponents to 4.6 yards per attempt. Banks is an explosive player.
Cornerback Patrick Peterson is now a 32-year-old free agent, and the Vikings allowed a 66.7% completion percentage (ninth-highest) and 5.9 yards per play (third-highest) last season. Banks could help.
Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
If the Jaguars let Jawaan Taylor leave in free agency, Wright could be the replacement at right tackle opposite Cam Robinson. He plays with great balance and is outstanding as a run blocker. At 6-5 and 333 pounds, he ran a 5.01 in the 40-yard dash, showing his quicks. I liked what I saw at the Senior Bowl, too. Wright would help keep quarterback Trevor Lawrence upright and open up seams for running back Travis Etienne Jr. as the Jaguars continue to emerge as a player in the AFC. He allowed just one sack in 2022.
Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
It sounds like Daniel Jones will be back in New York, but who will he be throwing to in 2023 and beyond? The disappointing Kenny Golladay era is over, and Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard and Richie James are free agents. Wan’Dale Robinson flashed before tearing his ACL, but Flowers could really unlock another level of the offense. With explosive traits, great instincts and 4.42 speed, he caught 78 balls for 1,077 yards and 12 TDs in 2022. Flowers is only 5-9 and 182 pounds, though, and fits best in the slot — where 5-8 Robinson predominantly lined up as a rookie.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
This is a value pick, but tight end Dalton Schultz is also a free agent and might be gone. With the top receivers all off the board — I’d love to get another one opposite CeeDee Lamb — Dallas can look to Kincaid as another pass-catcher for quarterback Dak Prescott. We didn’t see Kincaid work out at the combine, but he has enough speed to make plays down the seam and can go up and get 50-50 balls. He is coming off a 70-catch, 890-yard, eight-TD campaign with the Utes and has the versatility to move around the formation.
Keion White, OLB, Georgia Tech
Buffalo’s roster doesn’t have many holes, so it might be “best player available” — and White is a steal at this point in Round 1. The 6-5, 285-pounder posted 7.5 sacks in 2022, had a great Senior Bowl week and then looked good at the combine. The Bills used a first-rounder on Greg Rousseau in 2021 and then signed Von Miller last offseason, but adding White to the pass-rush mix helps build out a really good group. Buffalo was 14th in sacks (40) and pressure rate (30.0%) last season, and White can contribute off the edge early in his career.
Alternatively, the Bills could shore up the offensive line since both starting tackles are entering their final two years under contract. Oklahoma tackle Anton Harrison or Florida guard O’Cyrus Torrence might make sense.
Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
The Bengals gave up 44 sacks in 2022, which tied for 20th in the NFL. They also ranked 30th in pass block win rate at a tick above 50%. As they get set to pay quarterback Joe Burrow on a big extension, they might want to do something about reducing the hits on him. Plus, La’el Collins is returning from a torn ACL, and Jonah Williams missed time during the playoffs with a dislocated kneecap, so depth is important. Harrison is tough to shake once he’s locked on in pass protection, and he allowed just two sacks over 34 games at Oklahoma (24 starts).
Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
Bresee is coming off a tough season — he recorded just 3.5 sacks and dealt with a kidney infection and the death of his sister — but we can see the talent on the tape. At 6-6 and 298 pounds, he displays great upper-body strength and quick hands. I like the fit as a run-plugger in the middle of the Saints’ defense, replacing free agent David Onyemata. The Saints’ run D gave up 4.5 yards per carry last season, which ranked 20th.
Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
Eagles GM Howie Roseman loves building his roster up from the trenches, and after landing an impact running back in Robinson earlier in Round 1, he can pick up one of the biggest combine standouts here. Kancey ran the fastest 40-yard dash for a defensive tackle at the combine since 2006, turning in a 4.67. He’s a disruptive player with explosive traits, and he had 14.5 sacks and 28.5 tackles for loss over the past two seasons. But he’s a bit of a ‘tweener at 281 pounds, meaning he might move around Philly’s defensive line. With Javon Hargrave, Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Robert Quinn, Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph all entering free agency from that line, Kancey’s versatility would be welcomed.
Derick Hall, DE, Auburn
What can the Super Bowl champs do to improve at the end of Round 1? Offensive tackle and receiver are the top needs, but there is no value on the board at either position. Maybe Alabama safety Brian Branch could work in the slot or replace free agent Juan Thornhill on the back end? Perhaps the Chiefs do what they did the last time they won a Super Bowl and cap off the first round with a running back, since Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs is still on the board. Or would GM Brett Veach be tempted by the off-the-chart physical traits of Georgia tight end Darnell Washington and opt to put him opposite Travis Kelce?
All decent options. But adding another pass-rusher never hurts, and while the Chiefs were second in sacks last season, 21 of their 55 came when defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo dialed up a blitz. Hall had 16 sacks and 26 tackles for loss over the past two seasons, and he just posted a 10-foot-7 broad jump and ran the 40 in 4.55 seconds at 254 pounds at the combine. That’s really good. He’s sudden and takes off in a flash. Let’s add him to the mix in K.C. opposite 2022 first-rounder George Karlaftis, especially with Carlos Dunlap and now Frank Clark hitting free agency.
