MLB odds: Win totals growing more popular with bettors, sharp bets

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Before the Final Four steps on the floor, the MLB season will be in full swing. Opening Day features 15 games, including the defending World Series champion Houston Astros hosting the Chicago White Sox.

As it turns out, savvy baseball bettor Tommy Lorenzo finds both those teams intriguing. Not for Thursday night’s game, but rather for an MLB betting market growing more popular each year: regular-season win totals.

It’s a pretty simple market. Oddsmakers set a number of regular-season wins they feel is a fair representation of each team, and customers can bet the Over or the Under.

Let’s go around the horn with six teams Lorenzo researched – three for the Over, and three for the Under, based on win totals at BetMGM.

Chicago White Sox (Over 82.5)

Last season, the White Sox finished at exactly .500, going 81-81. That was good enough for second place in the middling American League Central, though it was 11 games behind division winner Cleveland.

Lorenzo sees at least slightly better times ahead for the 2023 White Sox.

“There is no juggernaut in the AL Central and the White Sox should be much improved under new manager Pedro Grifol, a players’ manager that should fit well with this group,” Lorenzo said. “Cy Young contender Dylan Cease leads a strong contingent of starting pitchers. However, the strength will come from the formidable bats assembled in the South Side this season.”

Indeed, Rotochamp has the top six of Chicago’s batting order projected to combine for 118 home runs and 425 RBIs. That includes a projected 28-homer/87-RBI season from cleanup hitter Eloy Jiménez.

“The White Sox lineup contains hitters from the top to the bottom of the order who hit for power,” Lorenzo said. “This spring, the White Sox were top-10 in slugging percentage, which was a weak spot last season. The new approach employed by new hitting coach Jose Castro (formerly of the Braves) means there will be a lot more home runs by ChiSox batters at Guaranteed Rate Field this year. Certainly enough to get this team to a record just above .500.”

Tampa Bay Rays season preview

Ben Verlander and Alex Curry bring you everything you need to know about the Tampa Bay Rays heading into the season.

Tampa Bay Rays (Over 88.5)

The Rays went 86-76 in 2022, just enough to earn an AL wild-card bid. But Tampa Bay’s postseason stay was short as it got swept 2-0 in a best-of-three series against Cleveland.

Lorenzo believes this year’s Rays have at least three more wins in them.

“In their last four full seasons – excluding the 2020 COVID season – the Rays are quietly averaging 93 wins per year,” Lorenzo said. “Over the first three weeks of the 2023 season, the Rays have series scheduled versus the Tigers, Nationals, A’s, and Reds, arguably the four worst teams in baseball. This schedule luck should help Tampa get out of the gate quickly.

“More importantly, it will help soften the blow of losing starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow (oblique) for the first month of the season. There are good young pitchers on this staff, and the batting lineup has solid pieces in Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena.”

Los Angeles Angels (Over 82.5)

Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout are fresh off facing each other in the championship game of the World Baseball Classic. Ohtani got the better of that matchup, striking out Trout in the last at-bat to secure Japan’s 3-2 win over the U.S.

Now, they reunite once again in the Angels’ dugout, which wasn’t so great last year. Los Angeles finished a dismal 73-89 in 2022, and Trout continued his injury-prone stretch, playing in just 119 of 162 games. In 2021, Trout played in a mere 36 games.

But at the moment, Trout is good to go and is a top contender in AL MVP odds. Ohtani is the +220 favorite at FOX Bet, followed by Yankees’ slugger and reigning MVP Aaron Judge (+700), then third-choice Trout (+800).

“While Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani MVP odds continue to be sliced at sportsbooks as Opening Day approaches, their club’s season win total sits at 82.5, just above .500,” Lorenzo said. “The Halos’ starting pitching and bullpen should continue to be a bright spot. The Angels had a top-10 staff ERA last season. The key will be the supporting cast of hitters in the same lineup as Trout and Ohtani.

“Power bats such as Hunter Renfroe and oft-injured Anthony Rendon, who had a monster spring, have to step up. If they do, the Angels not only clear 80.5 wins easily, they could be looking at a playoff spot.”

New York Yankees (Under 95.5)

New York fell just a game shy of the century mark in the 2022 regular season, going 99-63 to win the AL East by seven games. The Yankees then topped Cleveland in the AL Division Series before losing to eventual champion Houston in the AL Championship Series.

So the 2023 win total is a bit lofty – perhaps too lofty for Lorenzo.

“What gets lost in the Yankees’ nearly 100-win season is that they went 43-42 over their last 85 games,” Lorenzo said. “The starting rotation is banged up on the eve of Opening Day as Carlos Rodón (forearm) and Luis Severino (lat strain) will start the year on the injured list. This leaves Gerrit Cole leading a rotation that includes Nestor Cortes, Clarke Schmidt and Domingo Germán.

“The hitting component of the 2023 Yankees is intact. However, there is a clear downside to this starting rotation. It’s not what you want when backing a team to reach a win total in the mid-90s.

Houston Astros (Under 95.5)

Houston is coming off its 2022 World Series victory, beating the Phillies in six games. And the Astros are getting quite familiar with the Fall Classic, having played in four of the past six World Series, with two championships to show for it.

Last year, Houston blew by the century mark with a record of 106-56. The nucleus is still there for another big season, but getting to 96 wins is still no easy task.

“There won’t be a World Series hangover for the Astros as this is still a talented ballclub. However, there are some dents in the armor as the 2023 season gets underway,” Lorenzo said. “José Altuve‘s injury (fractured thumb) during the WBC stings a bit more as the Astros lack depth at second base, and offensive production will be lost. Slugger Yordan Alvarez, who was brought along very slowly this spring, has a wrist issue that might continue to affect his power numbers.

“Lastly, shortstop Jeremy Peña could well experience a sophomore slump as his production plummeted in the second half last season.”

Lorenzo said Houston’s starting pitching remains solid, and there’s good upside among the younger hurlers. However, the loss of 2022 AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander – who signed with the New York Mets in the offseason – will leave a mark.

“This is a playoff team, but it won’t be a 96- or 97-game winner in 2023.”

Baltimore Orioles (Under 77.5)

Last season, the Orioles went 83-79 in the very competitive AL East. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays and O’s all finished above .500, with Boston (78-84) the only team failing to do so.

But Lorenzo anticipates a noteworthy fallback in 2023.

“This team overachieved last season, and there is some regression on the horizon,” he said. “This bullpen has some solid arms – and the O’s need them as the starting pitching is extremely shaky. No projected starter in the Orioles’ pitching rotation won more than 10 games last year, and there is nothing in their underlying numbers that indicate any of them will make a performance jump this season.

“This is a team with some exciting young players. But not too exciting if you’re holding an Over 77.5 wins ticket.”

Show Me the Money – and Tickets

Ahead of Thursday’s MLB Opening Day slate, BetMGM noted which teams are getting attention in the season win totals market. The top three teams in Over bets:

Boston Red Sox (78.5)
Baltimore Orioles (77.5)
Cincinnati Reds (65.6)

And the top three teams in Under bets:

Chicago White Sox (82.5)
Detroit Tigers (69.5)
Los Angeles Dodgers (96.5)

BetMGM posted regular-season win totals at the end of January. Three notable movers:

New York Mets, from 95.5 to 92.5
Chicago White Sox, from 85.5 to 82.5
Boston Red Sox, from 76.5 to 78.5

A reminder that it often pays to shop around in the regular-season win totals market. So take a few minutes to check numbers with multiple sportsbook operators. A difference of a game here or there can mark the difference between a winning and losing bet.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

Top gambling stories from FOX Sports

Play FOX Super 6 every week for your chance to win thousands of dollars every week. Just download the Super 6 app and make your picks today!