After going 2-0 in this space in the Final Four, let’s try to run it back in the title game, where UConn is a prohibitive 7.5-point favorite against San Diego State.
The Aztecs won at the buzzer against Florida Atlantic, a game they trailed for about 28 straight minutes until Lamont Butler hit the game-winning shot.
The Aztecs (32-6) have beaten great offensive teams (Alabama), top defensive teams (Creighton), and four of their five NCAA Men’s Tournament wins are by seven points or fewer.
[RELATED: Final Four highlights]
UConn, meanwhile, is entering historic territory, blowing out everyone in its path. The only kryptonite for the Huskies (30-8) is playing close games.
They’re 1-5 in games decided by six points or fewer. How do you get them in a close game? Marquette got them twice and Xavier once, and the common denominator in those statistical profiles is having a top-10 offense.
San Diego State is not a strong offensive team despite scoring 72 points against FAU and 71 against Alabama. They want to play formidable defense on the perimeter, pound the ball inside after draining the shot clock and crash the offensive boards.
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The Huskies are better at all three of those aspects, having hit nine or more 3-pointers in every tournament game and dominating the interior with Adama Sanogo (21 points, 10 rebounds vs. Miami). Behind him is 7-foot-2 freshman Donovan Clingan, should fouls become an issue.
If I were defending UConn, the guy I’d want to remove is Jordan Hawkins, their most talented player and the only potential lottery pick on the roster. His 3-point ability helps open up Sanogo inside. Marquette held Hawkins to five points in one win over the Huskies; he had eight points in another loss.
Matt Bradley is the man for the job. A 23-year-old guard in his fifth season, he’s excellent defensively, and they’ve proven they can win without him scoring (see Creighton and Alabama).
A way to bet that is to take Bradley under 12.5 points, as he’ll be doing heavy lifting defensively, and the potential for foul trouble is high, even though he’s only fouled out of one game in the past two seasons.
A player prop on SDSU I’ll be watching is point guard Darrion Trammell to go over 9.5 points. Quick point guards have given the Huskies problems this season, and the volume of shots should be there for Trammell, who was instrumental in the win over Alabama (and Creighton, too).
If this game is in the 70s, SDSU will be in trouble. I lean towards the Over 132.5 combined points scored (at FOX Bet). There are plenty of ways to attack the game if you don’t want to lay 7.5 points in the title game. A teaser of UConn down to -2 and Over 127 combined points works.
PICK: UConn (-7.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7.5 points (predicted score: 75-66)
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 UConn (9:20 p.m. ET, CBS)
Point spread: UConn -7.5 (UConn favored to win by more than 7.5 points, otherwise San Diego State covers)
Moneyline: UConn -345 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $12.90 total); San Diego State +250 underdog to win (bet $10 to win $35 total)
Total scoring over/under: 132.5 points scored by both teams combined
Whenever you’re ready to make a wager or two on the NCAA futures market, head on over to FOX Bet.
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