2023 NFL Draft Odds: Day 1 betting recap; Levis falls, Lamar Super Bowl impact

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

NFL Draft odds are usually a headache for bookmakers and a bankroll booster for bettors. But Thursday’s first round of the NFL Draft actually saw the oddsmakers do much better than usual.

It certainly didn’t hurt the sportsbooks’ bottom lines when Will Levis – thought to be a sure thing to go in the top five picks and maybe even get drafted No. 1 or No. 2 – didn’t go anywhere Thursday night.

The SuperBook’s Casey Degnon, FOX Bet’s Dylan Brossman and BetMGM’s Seamus Magee provide the lowdown on how the books finally had a better night on NFL Draft odds.

Kentucky Blue Pass

In the week leading up to the draft, Levis garnered a boatload of hype. First, the Kentucky quarterback bolted to the favorite to be drafted No. 2 overall, by the Houston Texans.

Then, in a much bigger surprise, information surfaced suggesting that Levis might even be drafted No. 1 overall. Regardless, he was fully expected to be taken within the first few picks. Yet when the first-round party wound down in Kansas City, Levis was still in the back room.

The SuperBook’s NFL Draft betting menu only included who would be the No. 1 overall pick, then several Over/Unders on when a player would be drafted (i.e. Over/Under 4.5 or 5.5 etc.). Alabama QB Bryce Young going No. 1 overall, followed by Levis slipping out of the top five, was a key decision at The SuperBook.

“We for sure didn’t need Levis going No. 1,” Degnon said.

Instead, as expected, Young went No. 1 overall.

Why Will Levis’ attitude kicked him out of the first round

Day 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft is in the books and three QBs were selected in the first round but not Will Levis.

Last week, before all the Levis hype, Magee said it might be worth looking at the Over on Levis’ draft position. Magee even suggested Levis might fall out of the top 10. But the oddsmaker certainly didn’t foresee Levis still being on the board Friday.

“It’s unreal, honestly. I can’t remember the last time I saw a QB sitting in the green room not getting drafted, when he was a betting favorite to go top five just days before the draft,” Magee said.

Even on draft day, early morning, Levis was still the favorite to go No. 2 overall. But by the time the draft began, Levis wasn’t the favorite at Nos. 2 or 3. Still, that didn’t suggest he wouldn’t get drafted until Day 2.

“I didn’t think Levis would fall past the Bucs at No. 19,” Magee said. “I wasn’t a particularly big fan of the hype this draft cycle. But I couldn’t comprehend him falling out of the first round altogether.”

That said, Levis shouldn’t last long Friday night. He’s the favorite to be the first pick of the second round, which would mean the Pittsburgh Steelers – who have their QB in Kenny Pickett – would be trading out of that pick.

Brossman, trading operations senior manager at FOX Bet, said the Levis situation led to multiple positive outcomes for his operation.

“The Levis hype that came in this week helped reduce our liability big-time for the first overall pick. It also gave us very favorable results for the second and third overall pick markets,” Brossman said.

‘No Major Damage’

Brossman pointed to a few NFL Draft props that were key Thursday night, on each side of the counter.

“Bettors were all over this prop at +200: Bijan Robinson top-10 pick and Jahmyr Gibbs first-round pick. They also had us beat on the prop of both C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. as top-three picks, at +500,” Brossman said.

Robinson, the Texas running back, cracked the top 10 by going No. 8 overall to the Atlanta Falcons. Fellow running back Gibbs, from Alabama, went shortly thereafter at No. 12 to the Detroit Lions. And as noted above, Stroud went No. 2 and Anderson No. 3, both to the Texans.

On the flip side, three props that fell in FOX Bet’s favor:

First three picks to be QBs (+175); Anderson broke that up by going No. 3, after Young and Stroud went 1-2
Lions to draft defensive lineman Jalen Carter (+500); the Chicago Bears nabbed the Georgia standout
Two or more running backs/five or more QBs/three or more tight ends drafted in the first round (+650)

That last one didn’t get close for bettors. Only two running backs, three QBs and one tight end went in the first round.

“Overall, the first round was a slight loser for us. But no major damage was done,” Brossman said. “Historically, we are thrilled with any positive margin on the draft. So we were not surprised nor disappointed coming out slightly in the red.”

Top of the Props

Degnon provided a brief rundown of key first-round prop decisions in the NFL Draft odds market. Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid going 26th overall to the Buffalo Bills was a winner for the book. Kincaid’s Over/Under on draft position was 25.5, and the Under was seeing the bulk of the action.

Penn State wideout Joey Porter Jr. slipping out of the first round was also a winner behind the counter. Porter’s Over/Under was 19.5.

Those and other Over/Under decisions, along with Levis slipping, helped make The SuperBook a winner on NFL first-round odds for the first time in the several years it’s taken action on the draft.

“We lost a little on the player Over/Unders. But if you combine that with the odds to go No. 1 [market], we came out a small winner,” Degnon said. “I’m pleasantly surprised. Our team put in a lot of time and did a great job booking the action.”

Bettors still managed to beat BetMGM, in a market dominated by sharp players. However, the setback for BetMGM was far more acceptable than the norm for NFL Draft betting.

“It wasn’t a winning night on the draft, but this is probably the best we’ve done on a draft that I can remember,” Magee said. “C.J. Stroud at No. 2 overall was the killer. But picks 3-5 saved the day. Those were huge results for us.”

At No. 2, Stroud went to the Houston Texans, who surprisingly followed up by trading into the No. 3 pick – making a deal with the Arizona Cardinals – and grabbing Alabama linebacker Will Anderson Jr. Then Florida QB Anthony Richardson went No. 4 to the Indianapolis Colts, followed by Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon at No. 5 to the Seattle Seahawks.

“Anderson at No. 3 wasn’t bad. There was lots of money on quarterbacks at No. 3, anticipating a trade,” Magee said. “Richardson at No. 4 could’ve been a lot worse, but wasn’t, thanks to a lot of money coming in on Levis [Thursday]. People were thinking Levis could’ve gone to the Colts.”

Lamar Locked Down

Hours before the NFL Draft began, the Baltimore Ravens squelched any rumors of QB Lamar Jackson playing anywhere else. Jackson agreed to a five-year contract extension worth $260 million, with $185 million guaranteed.

That makes Jackson the highest-paid QB in the NFL. The deal also impacted the Super Bowl odds market.

BetMGM had the Ravens at +2500 to win the Super Bowl prior to the deal getting done. Shortly after the ink dried on Jackson’s contract Thursday, BetMGM moved the Ravens to +2200. By Friday morning, Baltimore sat as the +1800 eighth choice in odds to win the Super Bowl.

FOX Bet has the Ravens a couple ticks lower on the Super Bowl odds board, as the +1800 eighth choice. The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs are the +600 favorite at FOX Bet and the +650 favorite at BetMGM.

The SuperBook has K.C. as the +600 favorite, while the Ravens are the +2000 co-eighth choice, joined by the Lions and Los Angeles Chargers.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.