Football teams generally need to run the ball to be successful. Yet NFL franchises are reluctant to spend high draft picks on running backs as they have limited mileage before the tread wears down, and a replacement is needed.
This brings us to Texas unanimous All-American Bijan Robinson, the consensus top running back in this year’s draft class. The 5-foot-11, 215-pound Robinson ran for 1,580 yards (sixth in the country, 6.1 per carry) and 18 touchdowns last season.
The consensus among mock drafts is Robinson will get drafted late in the first round or later. The latest FOX Sports mock has Robinson going to the Buffalo Bills with the No. 27 pick.
To breakdown where the star running back will land in the draft from a betting perspective, we spoke to FOX Bet.
[RELATED: Joel Klatt’s mock draft]
Over/Under for Robinson’s Draft position: 25.5
FOX Bet Trading Operations Associate Matthew Griffe said if he were to set a projected draft line for Robinson, he’d go with a hypothetical Over/Under number of 25.5.
“Robinson is one of the few blue-chip talents in this year’s NFL Draft,” Griffe stated. “The issue, of course, is that he plays a position with low relative value, and NFL teams look to spend their draft capital on premium positions.
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“Bijan can take an already potent offense and add a home-run hitter that possesses both speed and power.”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Bijan Robinson: Top 10 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft
Joel Klatt explained his first mock draft for the 2023 NFL Draft.
FOX Sports NFC East reporter Ralph Vacchiano said with running back Miles Sanders signing with the Carolina Panthers, the Philadelphia Eagles have a need at running back. But the Eagles, who have the No. 10 pick, that might be too high to take Robinson though Vacchiano describes him as “clearly the most interesting player” in the draft.
Keep in mind the Eagles also have the 30th pick.
“Would the Eagles do it at 10? Probably not, though it likely will be tempting,” Vacchiano said. “It’s also not inconceivable that he slips all the way to 30, given how most teams and GMs don’t seem to think running backs are worthy of high first-round picks anymore.”
FOX Sports college football analyst Joel Klatt said the Eagles might be tempted to snag Robinson early to complement quarterback Jalen Hurts.
“This one is the freebie of all freebies. When you dive into the Eagles, they don’t really have a need,” Klatt said. “Everyone else that has selected to this point, they’ve got five or six needs, but the Eagles are one of the most complete rosters in the NFL. Why not just take the most dynamic player on the board?
“… It alleviates some of the pressure on Jalen Hurts because he has an outlet immediately and there’s another dynamic player that has to be defended side to side … you put a guy like Bijan Robinson on the Eagles, and I am in.”
The Dallas Cowboys parted ways in March with Ezekiel Elliott, who ran for 8,262 yards in six seasons. FOX Sports Cowboys reporter David Helman called Robinson “the best running back in this draft class – likely the best running back in the last five draft classes.
“The ongoing debate about positional value versus individual talent has been fierce,” Helman said. “Robinson would immediately add a third home run threat to the Dallas offense, to go with Tony Pollard and Brandin Cooks. But history tells us that quality running backs can be found at every level of the draft. There are merits to both sides of the argument, but good luck getting anyone to come off their stance.”
Who was the last running back to be the top pick? Penn State’s Ki-Jana Carter by the Cincinnati Bengals in 1995. Carter is a cautionary tale on why teams don’t take running backs with high picks – he tore a knee ligament on the third carry of his first preseason game. He missed the entire 1995 season and finished his career with 1,144 rushing yards in 59 games.
If you’re looking to get in on the NFL Draft action, head on over to FOX Bet!
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