The 2023 NFL Draft is less than a week away, and all of us bettors must prepare for the unknown. The draft odds have been all over the place for the No. 1 pick, but now the odds are also on the move for the second overall pick.
You might remember that at the beginning of the month, Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud had the shortest odds to get drafted No. 1. The lines have shifted significantly, with Alabama’s Will Anderson (+160) recently overtaking Stroud (+275) to go No. 2 overall.
Outside the first pick, there’s really no consensus on where players will land, and that is where the mayhem starts. For example, one team might have a prospect ranked second while another team will have the same player ranked 10th. This is abnormal, and I’m here for all the chaos as it unfolds next Thursday night.
Let’s just say it’s going to be a hectic opening night.
The first pick in the draft belongs to the Carolina Panthers, and the heavy wagering favorite is Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. Every day the number next to his name keeps getting smaller as his odds to go first get shorter.
Currently, he’s listed at -1000 to be the first pick at FOX Bet, and that number was -300 just this week.
Young is the most ready-to-play quarterback, scoring well in pre-draft cognition testing relative to other quarterback prospects. Plus, he’s got the film and pedigree from Alabama, so I will roll with Young at number one.
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What happens next is where the fun begins in this draft. Let’s dive more into that from a betting perspective.
The Houston Texans own the second pick in the NFL draft, and there continues to be word that the Texans will not draft a quarterback. Granted, It’s always difficult to wade through the noise and misdirection of draft rumors, but enough NFL insiders, including NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein, have now made it clear the Texans are looking at non-quarterback options at number two.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter has echoed this report, and multiple mock drafts have adjusted projections for the Texans pick. If you believe the rumors are true, there’s only one draft pick for them if they remain drafting in the second slot.
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That would be Crimson Tide pass rusher Will Anderson, currently sitting at +160 at FOX Bet, to get drafted second overall. He tallied 34.5 sacks and 58.5 tackles for loss in three seasons under Nick Saban, generating pressure on nearly 18% of his pass-rushing reps per Pro Football Focus. This is even more impressive when you consider how many rushing reps were against offenses throwing the ball quickly or using extra bodies to block him.
The Texans would improve their roster with Anderson on the team.
However, what if they trade the pick?
2023 NFL Draft: Which quarterback will the Carolina Panthers select?
David Helman and Carmen Vitali discuss why the Carolina Panthers will select former Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young in the 2023 NFL Draft.
NFL front-office types love to say they never listen to the media, but that would be far from the truth. They know exactly what is being said about each team heading into the final stretch of draft preparation.
Teams use the media to spread the message they want out, and the Texans being so loud about not wanting a quarterback with the second pick means they are open to a trade with a team that is eying a quarterback.
If that does happen, the quarterback that I believe teams would trade up for is Anthony Richardson. This is why I’d sprinkle a tad on Richardson at +2000 for the second pick in the draft. Richardson will need time to develop, but he arguably has the most upside of any quarterback prospect.
In simple draft terms, he’s a classic boom-or-bust prospect, but that boom is large enough that a team might be willing to trade for him.
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @GeoffSchwartz.
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