It could be said that no one stands to benefit more from the College Football Playoff’s imminent expansion than whoever seizes control of the new-look American Athletic Conference.
Sure, plenty of others also will benefit. Multi-loss champions of conferences such as the Pac-12 and Big 12 will get not only guaranteed seats at the 12-team table but also semi-regular playoff byes. The Penn States of the world, excellent teams stuck behind top-five programs in their divisions, could get annual bids too. But if a power emerges from the ranks of the AAC (or, perhaps, the Sun Belt or Mountain West) in the coming years, they, too, could see regular bids and both the financial and recruiting boosts that come with that.
In losing Cincinnati, Houston and UCF to the Big 12, the AAC has taken a hit in terms of overall quality. But the moves have also opened a door for the conference’s remaining programs. Can Tulane consolidate power after last year’s incredible surge? Can SMU finally put all the pieces together? Can Memphis regain what it has lost in recent seasons? Can a newcomer like UTSA or Florida Atlantic shine?
There is opportunity afoot, and a lot of programs are attempting to seize it. Last week we previewed the AAC’s six newcomers; this week let’s talk about its eight holdovers. Time to talk AAC!
Every week through the offseason, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 133 FBS teams. The previews will include 2022 breakdowns, 2023 previews and burning questions for each team.
Earlier previews: AAC, part 1 | Conference USA, part 1 | Conference USA, part 2 | MAC East | MAC West | MWC Mountain | MWC West | Sun Belt West | Sun Belt West
2022 recap
Indeed, for all the teams the AAC just lost, the champs return. Willie Fritz’s Green Wave responded to a snakebitten 2-10 season in 2021 by charging to 12-2, beating UCF for the conference title and knocking off Big 12 champion Kansas State and Pac-12 runner-up USC. They finished in the AP top 10 for just the second time in 80 years.
Elsewhere, East Carolina went 8-5 with a team Mike Houston took four years to build, and both SMU and Memphis went a tantalizing but frustrating 7-6. Temple struggled to find traction in Stan Drayton’s first season, and three other teams all finished with losing records and fired their coaches: 5-7 Tulsa (Philip Montgomery was replaced by Kevin Wilson), 4-8 Navy (Ken Niumatalolo out, Brian Newberry in) and 1-11 South Florida (Jeff Scott out, Alex Golesh in).
2023 projections
Teams in bold are covered in today’s preview.
It probably isn’t a surprise to see Tulane leading the way here, followed by SMU and Memphis, the conference’s two most consistently solid remaining programs. Things get interesting below that, however. Temple has gone just 7-24 over the past three seasons, with an average SP+ ranking of 114.3, but the Owls not only return a healthy amount of experience but also take on the easiest schedule in the AAC; SP+ gives them a 59% chance of bowling for the first time in four years.
ECU is on the opposite end of things: After last year’s breakthrough, the Pirates lost a ton of last year’s production, and they have the third-hardest schedule, behind only UAB and Tulsa. Odds of bowling: just 29%.
Burning questions
Tulane was so dang fast last year. Is that still the case? You rarely see karmic regression to the mean act so quickly. In 2021, the Green Wave had to deal with the effects of Hurricane Ida, spending nearly a month based out of a hotel in Birmingham, watching their two-deep get hit hard by injuries and, to add salt to the wound, going 0-5 in one-score games on their way to a 2-10 record.
Tulane played 2022 like it was making up for lost time. The Wave improved from 68th to 37th in offensive SP+, from 108th to 32nd in defensive SP+ and even from 117th to 63rd on special teams. They used all the endurance they didn’t have in 2021 to score the final 10 points in a 17-10 win over Kansas State, the final 14 points in a 45-28 AAC championship game win over UCF and the final 16 points in an exhilarating 46-45 win over USC in the Cotton Bowl, their first major bowl appearance since the 1940 Sugar Bowl.
It was an incredible run. And it’s one that doesn’t necessarily have to end.
As tends to be the case after a miraculous season, the Wave have some major playmakers to replace — running back Tyjae Spears, receivers Duece Watts and Shae Wyatt, linebackers Dorian Williams and Nick Anderson, nickelback Macon Clark — most of whom boasted a level of speed that an academics-heavy school like Tulane might struggle to replicate. Both coordinators left too, and Fritz’s first-choice defensive coordinator replacement, Marshall’s Lance Guidry, ended up leaving for the same job at Miami after a month. Fritz hired Troy’s Shiel Wood, engineer of an incredible 2022 defense, right before spring ball started.
Tulane was able to keep a number of stars in town for one more year, however, including quarterback Michael Pratt, explosive slot man Jha’Quan Jackson, all-conference offensive linemen Sincere Haynesworth and Prince Pines, most of the defensive line and ace corner Jarius Monroe. Experience levels are high, and the transfer portal could end up keeping athleticism levels high as well — former blue-chippers Lawrence Keys III (Notre Dame) and Yulkeith Brown (Texas A&M) could play major roles in the remodeled receiving corps, and two more transfers, former Louisiana Tech linebacker Tyler Grubbs and former Marshall safety Andre Sam, were each among their teams’ most disruptive defenders last season.
It’s hard to predict another blessed run like 2022, even if it was mostly retribution for the hardship of 2021. But among Group of 5 teams, SP+ gives Tulane the second-best odds of going 11-1 or better this season. (Only Fresno State is higher, and barely.) The Wave start the season as the AAC’s lead dog, and if they get enough big plays out of a new skill corps, they could end the season back in another big bowl.
Does a Miami (and Liberty) infusion push SMU over the top? In the portal era, it’s not difficult to envision a future in which the hires you make — head coach, perhaps, but especially coordinators or position coaches — are at least partially dictated by the transfers a coach might be able to bring with him if hired.
SMU didn’t hire Rhett Lashlee in 2022 because he had connections at Miami (where he was offensive coordinator in 2020 and ’21). But they might benefit from that connection in 2023. Lashlee signed six Miami transfers this offseason, plus three former defenders from Liberty, where defensive coordinator Scott Symons previously coached. They could make a huge impact in the AAC race.
The Mustangs return four of last year’s top five receiving targets, plus their three leading rushers, but if they are to pull off a fifth straight top-15 finish in offensive SP+ without quarterback Tanner Mordecai (transferred to Wisconsin) and receiver Rashee Rice (off to the NFL), they need a couple of new difference-makers and new pass-catchers for likely starting QB Preston Stone. Those might come from The U. Running back Jaylan Knighton, perhaps? Receivers Romello Brinson and Key’Shawn Smith?
If the defense improves beyond last year’s No. 114 ranking in defensive SP+, it’s quite possible that some Liberty guys will be behind that. Linebacker Ahmad Walker, safety Robert Rahimi and corner Chris Megginson combined for 16 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 6 interceptions and 9 breakups last season with the Flames, and now they’ve all committed to join the Mustangs. They’ll join a couple of Miami defensive linemen, Temple linebacker Kobe Wilson, Stanford nickelback Jonathan McGill and others in an attempt to at least bring defensive competence to Dallas for the first time in a while. Incumbent end Nelson Paul and safety Brandon Crossley are strong, but they’ll need help.
SMU hasn’t ranked higher than 93rd in defensive SP+ since 2012, in which time they’ve allowed 41.9 points per game in losses and lost 15 games while scoring at least 30 points (and allowing at least 37 points in nine wins). Over the last four seasons they’ve fielded top-15 offenses and gone 32-16 overall, but they’ve lost games by scores like 54-48, 52-28, 52-38, 44-37 and 42-34, and they’ve failed to make a single AAC championship game appearance. If Stone isn’t able to meet Mordecai’s standards and the new guys don’t make enough of a difference on offense, the defense will need to improve quite a bit. After a nonconference run that includes trips to Oklahoma and TCU, the conference slate is manageable — no Tulane, no UTSA, Memphis at home. But they’ve got to be able to make at least a few stops.
Is Memphis going to learn how to win close games at some point? Through three seasons as Memphis coach, Ryan Silverfield has a 21-15 record, the second-best three-year debut the school has seen since Richard Williamson went 20-13 from 1975-77. He’s not doing as well as the last guy, though. Mike Norvell went 38-16 over four years and brought Memphis an AAC title, Cotton Bowl bid and two ranked finishes. Silverfield is a relative success, but he finds himself under some pressure in 2023.
The issue at the center of everything: close games. The Tigers have dropped eight of their last 10 one-score finishes and lost all four in 2022. During a dour four-game losing streak, they saw a 26-7 fourth-quarter lead turn into a 33-32 home loss to Houston and a 17-0 second-quarter lead turn into a 47-45 overtime loss at East Carolina.
The offense clammed up at inopportune times, but as with SMU the defense was the primary issue. The Tigers allowed 39.3 points per game in losses; they defended the run pretty well but took “bend don’t break” way too far in pass defense, produced no pass rush to speak of (115th in sacks per dropback) and stunk in the red zone (96th in red zone touchdown rate allowed). With the return of end Jaylon Allen and linebacker Geoffrey Cantin-Arku and the addition of 300-pound transfers Josh Ellison (Oklahoma) and Adarious Jones (Texas A&M), the run defense should still be solid. But second-year coordinator Matt Barnes simply must find a pass rush. Allen and end Cormontae Hamilton weren’t enough, and a secondary that was overwhelmed last year is now replacing four of its top six.
The offense, 29th in offensive SP+ last season, should again be good. Seth Henigan returns after throwing for 3,571 yards, and with two of three leading running backs and three starting linemen back, the run game should be sound. Henigan’s top five targets are gone, which obviously could be problematic, but Silverfield might have stemmed regression with quality transfer portal work. He brought in Marshall’s Corey Gammage, Toledo’s DeMeer Blankumsee, Missouri’s Tauskie Dove and an excellent run-pass threat in Old Dominion running back Blake Watson, who combined 921 rushing yards with 37 receptions last season.
If the best way to get better at close games is to avoid them altogether, the schedule might do its part: Memphis avoids UTSA and gets Tulane and SMU at home, and SP+ projects only those two conference games to finish within 7.5 points. The Tigers might only need a couple of breaks to win big in 2023, and after going 0-4 in one-score games, one’s luck usually turns a little. (Just ask Tulane.)
How do Temple and Navy turn it around after a long three years? In the latter half of the 2010s, Temple and Navy were among the best the AAC had to offer. Between 2015 and 2019, the Owls and Midshipmen went a combined 84-49 with three conference title game appearances. (Temple beat Navy in the 2016 edition.) They averaged SP+ rankings of 54.0 — 55.9 on offense and 54.1 on defense.
Over the last three seasons, these programs are a combined 18-47 with an average SP+ ranking of 104.5 (109.3 on offense, 72.5 on defense). Temple lost a bit of steam transitioning from Matt Rhule to Geoff Collins, then deflated entirely under Rod Carey. Ken Niumatalolo’s Navy teams never found the quarterback play necessary after the incredible Malcolm Perry left in 2019; the 2022 rule changes regarding cut blocks, a staple of option ball, probably didn’t help. Temple began a new era with Stan Drayton’s arrival last year, and Navy moved on from Niumatalolo to defensive coordinator Brian Newberry after 2022.
Drayton’s Owls showed life defensively, jumping to 71st in defensive SP+ and rushing the passer with abandon once opponents were behind schedule. One ace pass-rusher, Darian Varner, is gone, but Layton Jordan, with his 18.5 TFLs and nine sacks, returns. The defense as a whole returns 10 of 15 guys with 300-plus snaps; new coordinator Everett Withers replaces NFL-bound DJ Eliot, and if he’s able to hold the fort, Temple’s defense could improve even further.
The offense is counting on a Warner miracle. Quarterback E.J. Warner, son of Pro Football Hall of Famer Kurt Warner, took over as a freshman last year and … looked like a freshman, alternating between great (four games with a Total QBR over 75) and terrible (four games at or under 25). He lost his top two receivers, but slot men Amad Anderson Jr. and Colorado State transfer Dante Wright could be prolific security blankets. The bar on offense is ridiculously low — Temple hasn’t ranked higher than 88th in offensive SP+ since 2018 — and if Warner keeps developing, the ceiling should eventually be quite a bit higher than that. How much development can we expect in 2023?
As jarring as it was to see Niumatalolo let go after 16 years as Navy head coach, hiring Newberry was a sign that the school isn’t ready to ditch the option and Niumatalolo’s principles altogether. That was reinforced when Newberry hired offensive coordinator Grant Chesnut, who ran an attempt at a modernized option attack at Kennesaw State. (Newberry himself came from KSU in 2019.) The cut-blocking rule changes seem to have made it more difficult to spring big plays from such an attack, but KSU’s top two backs did average a solid 5.4 yards per carry last season, and the quarterbacks threw 17.4 passes — in no way air raid-esque but more than Navy is used to.
Since transfers aren’t a thing in Annapolis, and true freshman difference-makers are rare, Chesnut might find it difficult to quickly turn around Navy’s offensive fortunes. But he’ll at least have experience in senior quarterbacks Tai Lavatai and Xavier Arline, junior fullbacks Daba Fofana and Anton Hall Jr., and a veteran line. And the defense could be awfully fun again. Navy ranked 37th in defensive SP+ in 2020 and 41st in 2022, with Newberry’s scheme — basically a 3-5-3 of sorts — attacking up front and creating enough havoc to offset a lack of size. Playmakers such as end Jacob Busic, linebacker Colin Ramos and safety Eavan Gibbons return, though losing stud nickelback John Marshall (19 TFLs, 14 run stops, 11.5 sacks, 8 passes defended) hurts a lot.
How does Mike Houston’s second act at ECU go? East Carolina was long one of the nation’s most dangerous mid-majors. The Pirates bowled 14 times between 1991 and 2014, winning at least nine games six times in that span. A single panic move seemed to derail its progress — with other AAC rivals surging with young coaches, the school fired veteran Ruffin McNeill for a single 5-7 misstep in 2015 and averaged just 3.2 wins over the next five years.
Mike Houston has slowly brought the program back to life. The former FCS national champion at James Madison went just 7-14 in his first two seasons, but ECU improved to 7-5 and 70th in SP+ in 2021, then 8-5 and 63rd last year. The offense was awesome, while the defense made timely and aggressive plays in the red zone and turnover departments.
It feels like a reset is coming in 2023. The program’s overall trajectory might remain solid, but 3,700-yard passer Holton Ahlers, 1,400-yard rusher Keaton Mitchell and two 1,000-yard receivers are gone, as are 11 of the 18 defenders who saw even 200 snaps.
Houston added six defensive transfers, including a trio from North Carolina, and defensive end Chad Stephens is excellent; the athleticism on D might still be strong, but there are fewer known entities for coordinator Blake Harrell. The same probably is the case for likely new starting quarterback Mason Garcia, who has a strong pedigree, a huge frame (6-foot-5, 242 pounds) and an under-proven supporting cast. Veteran receiver Jsi Hatfield has made some big plays in secondary roles through the years, and Jaylen Johnson averaged 13.1 yards per catch in his first year after transferring from Georgia, but known depth is an issue.
The ECU offense has ranked in the SP+ top 50 for two of the last three years, and the defense perked up to at least a top-80 level over the last two, but this definitely feels like the start of a second act for Houston in Greenville, and an unforgiving schedule features road trips to Michigan, Appalachian State, UTSA and Florida Atlantic. There’s enough potential here that a bowl bid isn’t out of the question, but if ECU falls short of that mark, hopefully the school will respond with more pragmatic, long-term thinking than it showed in 2015.
Which offense-friendly new hire clicks first (or at all), Kevin Wilson or Alex Golesh? In the end, Philip Montgomery’s biggest issue might have simply been that Tulsa became boring. The school is used to huge swings — the Golden Hurricane won at least 10 games five times and lost at least nine four times between 2007 and 2018, and Montgomery kept his job after going just 5-19 in 2017-18. But over the last three years, Tulsa grew forgettable. They went just 18-16, and he was let go after the most forgettable of records, 5-7.
Granted, South Florida would take 5-7 if offered. The Bulls have gone just 8-37 over the last four seasons. After back-to-back ranked finishes, they faded under Charlie Strong and collapsed under Jeff Scott, who was able to eventually craft a fun offense but watched his defense get worse with each passing year. USF ranked 131st, dead last, in defensive SP+ in 2022.
In theory, Alex Golesh should keep the scoreboard operator busy. He spent the last three seasons as Josh Heupel’s offensive coordinator at UCF and Tennessee, and he knows tempo and explosiveness as well as anyone. He could have some fun with quarterback Gerry Bohanon, slot man Sean Atkins and a sea of skill corps transfers. The ceiling is lowered by the loss of 1,100-yard rusher Brian Battie and four starting linemen, but whatever explosiveness potential exists on offense, USF should make the most of it.
The bar is infinitely lower on defense. USF hasn’t ranked in even double digits in defensive SP+ since 2019. Any stops are welcome. Defensive end Jason Vaughn and corner Daquan Evans are playmakers, and Golesh has brought in former blue-chip linemen Lloyd Summerall (Florida) and D.J. Harris (Texas) for coordinator Todd Orlando. But it would be unfair to expect much here.
Montgomery had some good defenses in Tulsa, but his last team suffered an imbalance that Kevin Wilson is probably used to. The former Indiana head coach (and, at other times, Oklahoma and Ohio State offensive coordinator) has overseen devastating offenses for most of the last 20 years, but six years in Bloomington produced average rankings of 45.7 in offensive SP+ and 97.0 on defense; Tulsa ranked 43rd and 117th, respectively, last season.
With quarterback Davis Brin off to Georgia Southern, speedy sophomore Braylon Braxton will likely take over behind center. He has massive potential, but thanks to turnover in the skill corps — only one returnee caught more than six balls last year — Braxton will need big contributions from running back Anthony Watkins, who averaged 7.4 yards per carry in 2021 but missed last season, and Oklahoma State receiver transfer Braylin Presley. The offensive line is experienced, though it lost two good tackles to the transfer portal.
Wilson’s first Tulsa defense will be experienced (nine of 15 players with 250-plus snaps are back), but it is replacing maybe its five best playmakers, and Wilson … doesn’t seem to have a coordinator yet. He hired Matt Guerrieri in January, but Guerrieri left for Indiana in February, and it appears the position remains open. Not ideal. Tulsa will have to score loads of points to bowl in 2023, but with Wilson and Braxton, that’s not out of the question.
My 10 favorite players
QB Michael Pratt, Tulane. After throwing for 3,010 yards with a 27-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio, Pratt elected to return for another dance in New Orleans. He’s accurate when he throws, and he’s a first-down machine when he runs.
WR Jordan Kerley, SMU. Losing Rashee Rice stings, but it will mean more opportunities for the former Arizona State Sun Devil, who has averaged 16 yards per catch with 10 touchdowns in two seasons in Dallas.
Slot Sean Atkins, USF. He’s the only returning Bull who caught more than 10 passes last year, but he’s a keeper and a sure-handed efficiency man — his catch rate on what Sports Info Solutions deemed catchable balls: 95.0%.
C Sincere Haynesworth, Tulane. Another Tulane captain who stayed. The 310-pounder from Pearland, Texas, was honorable mention all-conference in both 2020 and 2021, then turned in a nearly perfect performance, with first-team honors, last fall.
LG Nishad Strother, ECU. Turnover is abundant at ECU, but Strother, a 6-foot-3, 326-pound behemoth from Havelock, North Carolina, is a hell of a building block. According to SIS, he blew all of seven blocks in 2022. Seven out of 885.
DE Nelson Paul, SMU. Sure, SMU hasn’t exactly been known for defense of late, but Paul is active and disruptive, making tackles on nearly 10% of his snaps and recording nine TFLs, seven run stops and a solid five sacks on just 182 pass rush attempts.
DE Jaylon Allen, Memphis. He’s only 240 pounds, but the senior from Humble, Texas, might be better against the run (16 run stops) than he is against the pass (five sacks, one INT, one breakup), and he’s pretty good against the pass!
LB Layton Jordan, Temple. Only 11 FBS defenders combined at least 14 run stops with at least nine sacks. Of them, Jordan was the only one to also add two interceptions and three forced fumbles. He’s dynamite.
LB Colin Ramos, Navy. As a sophomore, Ramos was the personification of Navy’s defense: undersized (5-foot-11, 205 pounds) and active as hell (9.5 TFLs, 14 run stops, 4 sacks, 2 forced fumbles).
S Kendarin Ray, Tulsa. We’re used to Tulsa producing players who combine great speed and strength — linebackers like Zaven Collins, OLs like Tyler Smith — and in Ray they’ve got at least one more. He’s 6-foot-3, 208 pounds, defends the run like a linebacker and ballhawks like a safety.
Anniversaries
In 1978, 45 years ago, Temple won … the Mirage Bowl? It’s one of this sport’s lovely historical quirks. From 1977 to 1993, Tokyo hosted a late-season college football game, first called the Mirage Bowl, then the Coca-Cola Classic. Wisconsin would clinch a stunning Big Ten title in this game in 1993, and in 1988 Oklahoma State’s Barry Sanders produced 332 of his 2,850 rushing yards there when the Cowboys beat Texas Tech in a 45-42 thriller.
The first two Mirage Bowls, however, featured Wayne Hardin’s Temple Owls. In 1977, they wrapped up a 5-5-1 campaign with a 35-32 loss to Doug Williams and Grambling, but they got revenge of sorts the next year, taking down Boston College, 28-24, to finish 7-3-1.
In 1983, 40 years ago, Tulsa won its fourth of five straight conference titles. So much of a team’s realignment fate comes down to how it is playing at specific times. With college football’s top division splitting between 1-A (now FBS) and 1-AA (now FCS) in the early 1980s, a lot of Tulsa’s Missouri Valley rivals elected to move down to the lower level. John Cooper’s Golden Hurricane, however, were riding high, finishing with winning records for seven straight seasons and going unbeaten in MVC play for three straight years. They elected to stick it out in FBS.
In 1988, 35 years ago, SMU’s second life slowly began. The story of SMU’s excessive, sanctions-laden 1980s run is well documented at this point. After repeatedly running afoul of NCAA regulations, the program was given the death penalty for the 1987 season. It elected to sit out 1988 as well, hiring alum (and NFL great) Forrest Gregg to rebuild the roster before fielding a team again in 1989.
Things predictably didn’t go well. SMU won more than two games just once in its first seven seasons back in action and didn’t bowl again until 2009. The Mustangs have slowly regained stature, first under June Jones, then Chad Morris, then Sonny Dykes, and now they’re to the point where 2022’s 7-6 campaign almost felt a bit underwhelming. Now would be a very good time for SMU to find another gear.
In 1998, 25 years ago, Tulane went unbeaten. The Green Wave’s 1998 campaign is the program’s one modern season that can top 2022. Led by coach Tommy Bowden, with future pro Shaun King piloting Rich Rodriguez’s spectacular and innovative offense (King threw for 3,508 yards and 38 touchdowns and rushed for another 641 yards and 11 scores), Tulane went 12-0, scoring at least 40 points in nine games, finishing the year with a resounding 41-27 Liberty Bowl win over BYU and ending up seventh in the AP poll.
In 2008, 15 years ago, Navy was last led by a first-year coach. Only seven FBS coaches had longer active tenures when Ken Niumatalolo was fired after 16 seasons and 109 wins. When you go 4-8 or worse four times in five years, you get fired — it’s part of the business, and Niumatalolo has already found a new challenge — but man, is it going to be odd not seeing him on the Navy sideline.
Also in 2008, USF spent time in the top 10 for the second straight year. With how they’ve played of late — and at the worst possible time, considering the Big 12 just plucked away its biggest rival, UCF, and left the Bulls behind — it’s easy to forget just how much of an up-and-comer this program once felt like. Jim Leavitt’s squad beat No. 17 Auburn and No. 5 West Virginia to rise to second in the polls in 2007, and while they faded from there, they charged right back in 2008 with a 5-0 start and wins over UCF and No. 13 Kansas. (No. 13 Kansas! That was another weird thing!) That brought the Bulls back into the top 10 … for a week, at least. They stumbled to 8-5 from there.
In 2013, 10 years ago, ECU won 10 games. With a 30-year-old offensive coordinator named Lincoln Riley calling plays and 4,100-yard passer Shane Carden slinging the ball around, the Pirates averaged 40.2 points per game (ninth in FBS) and rolled to 10-3 in their final season in Conference USA. Riley stuck around for one season before leaving for Oklahoma and, unfortunately for head coach Ruffin McNeill, took ECU’s points with him.
In 2018, five years ago, Memphis went to its second of three straight AAC championship games. Due to pure proximity to talent and solid market size, Memphis has long felt like a sleeping giant, and under first Justin Fuente and then Mike Norvell, it seemed to wake up. Momentum has slowed, and Memphis didn’t get a ticket to the Big 12 like it hoped, but the Tigers are as primed as anyone to take annual shots at CFP bids if they can get rolling again.
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