Perhaps no NFL division will be impacted more at the macro level by the upcoming draft than the AFC South, which could have up to three new starting quarterbacks by the end of the weekend. The Texans (No. 2 overall pick), Colts (No. 4) and Titans (No. 11) could all draft signal-callers with their top picks.
So how exactly is it going to shake out Thursday, Day 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft?
Here are five AFC South predictions for the coming weekend:
Texans will take C.J. Stroud at No. 2, assuming Bryce Young goes to Panthers
Not long ago, Houston taking Stroud at No. 2 overall (assuming Young is the top pick to Carolina) appeared to be a no-brainer decision. But with recent speculation among draft pundits that the Texans may trade back and/or take a defensive player, and that Stroud’s appeal may be dwindling — he reportedly tested poorly on the S2 cognition test — saying Houston will take the Ohio State star quarterback is now a “take.” So here we are.
2023 NFL Draft: Will Texans pass on a QB?
FOX Sports reporters David Helman and Carmen Vitali discuss why Houston could pass on a quarterback with the No. 2 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
There’s reason to believe the chatter about the Texans passing on Stroud is just a smokescreen. Houston needs a franchise quarterback, and the consensus is that Stroud is one of the top two signal-callers in this draft. Passing on a quarterback for a second straight year when you’re in position to take one — Houston had the No. 3 pick last year — would be a tough sell to the McNair family and the Texans’ fan base, which hasn’t had much to cheer about over the past few years.
Titans will take a QB with top pick if one of three scenarios come to fruition
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So here’s my thinking: The Titans, who have the No. 11 overall pick, will trade up to No. 3 if Stroud is available or to No. 6 if Florida‘s Anthony Richardson is available. If neither comes to fruition and Kentucky‘s Will Levis is there when Tennessee picks at 11, it will take him.
The nature of the job forces NFL general managers to look two-plus years in advance (roster, salary cap, etc.), and it’s impossible for new Titans general manager Ran Carthon to ignore that the team he inherited has long-term uncertainty at quarterback, football’s most important position. Veteran Ryan Tannehill, who turns 35 in July, is entering the last year of his contract.
“We have to see this thing from a macro level and prepare for the future,” Carthon said Thursday at his pre-draft press conference. “That’s all a part of it.”
For potential trades up to No. 3 (Cardinals) and No. 6 (Lions) to take a quarterback, the Titans have the relationships with those teams that could facilitate a deal. New Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort was Tennessee’s director of player personnel from 2020-22. Carthon and Lions general manager Brad Holmes also worked together in the Rams‘ personnel department from 2012-16. Lions assistant general manager Ray Agnew, who also worked with Carthon with the Rams, is a close friend of the Titans GM.
2023 NFL Draft: Will Cardinals trade out of No. 3 pick?
David Helman and Carmen Vitali discuss whether Arizona will trade out the No. 3 pick in the draft.
I don’t see the Titans attempting to trade up for Levis, but it would make sense to take him if he falls into their lap at 11th overall. In evaluating quarterbacks, Carthon said he takes into consideration what concepts the signal-caller has run in college and how much of that would carry over to the team. And there is similarity in the scheme Levis played in at Kentucky and what the Titans have done the past several years offensively, in regard to play-action passing concepts and general play style.
At the NFL Combine, Titans coach Mike Vrabel didn’t rule out the team making significant offensive scheme changes ahead of the 2023 season, but that’s something to keep in mind.
If none of the quarterback scenarios comes to fruition, I believe the Titans will trade back and take a wide receiver or an offensive lineman with their top pick. Carthon mentioned those two positions among those that have the most depth in this draft class.
Colts won’t trade up, will take whichever QB falls to them at No. 4
At the combine nearly two months ago, I heard that in the Colts’ building there was no consensus about whom the preferred quarterback is. Owner Jim Irsay also told ESPN in a story that published Wednesday that the team is still “debating what our options are” at No. 4.
That thought process would give Indianapolis a reason to remain idle at No. 4, with there being a consensus top four at quarterback (Young, Stroud, Richardson, Levis), and not give up valuable draft capital to move up a spot.
2023 NFL Draft: How desperate are Colts for a QB?
David Helman and Carmen Vitali discuss how the Colts can land a franchise quarterback in the draft.
New coach Shane Steichen’s experience and success with quarterbacks of different sizes and skill sets — Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, the retired Philip Rivers — should give the Colts confidence in crafting an offense around whoever it lands.
“That broadens the field for you,” Colts general manager Chris Ballard said Friday of Steichen’s willingness to work with any style at quarterback. “That’s a good thing and I think as we’ve gone through the process of all the evaluations and coming down to what we think will be best for the Indianapolis Colts, whoever we end up taking is going to be that guy and he’ll make it work.”
Jaguars will take edge rusher with top pick
In two losses to the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs last season, in Week 10 and the divisional round, the Jaguars didn’t sack Patrick Mahomes once. So when Jacksonville talks about taking the next step to becoming a regular contender in the AFC — it’s been a theme in offseason press conferences — having a pass rush that can consistently disrupt elite quarterbacks should become a priority.
Getting pressure isn’t necessarily the issue for the Jags — they had a 32.9% pressure rate last season, third in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats — but they don’t get home enough. Jacksonville had just 35 sacks last season, tied for 25th in the league. The teams that were in the Super Bowl last season, the Chiefs and Eagles, led the NFL with 70 and 50 sacks, respectively.
So while defensive back and offensive line are big needs for Jacksonville, I think it will take an edge rusher or a pass-rushing defensive tackle at No. 24. Clemson edge rusher Myles Murphy and Pitt defensive tackle Calijah Kancey would fit this mold.
Titans will be the division’s most active team in the draft
Of the AFC South teams, the Titans have the fewest 2023 draft picks to work with at six. They have just three picks in the top 146 (Nos. 11, 41 and 72). It makes sense for Tennessee, led by a first-year general manager in Carthon, to be aggressive in accumulating as much draft capital as possible to improve a team — particularly on offense — that needs more talent and depth across the board.
While how the Titans proceed at No. 11 will likely depend on the board, I think it will look to trade back from 41 (second round) and 72 (third round) to get more picks.
Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
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