The final memory seared into our brains from last season was No. 1 Georgia’s resounding, relentless, insert-your-ugly-adjective 65-7 beatdown of No. 3 TCU in the national championship game. It was the largest win by a team in any bowl game in major college football history.
The Bulldogs finished 15-0 in 2022. They open the season with four straight home games. And they’re reloading with the second-best incoming recruiting class, trailing only Alabama.
So … who can stop them?
“When they’re as talented as they are, as well-coached, they’d have to beat themselves at times with some of us,” said one SEC head coach.
“Well, Alabama can,” another SEC head coach said. “Missouri should have. The best thing that can beat Georgia is Georgia, but a fast-paced offense like Tennessee would have some type of chance. Alabama. Obviously Ohio State. After that, probably not a lot. But I think the best opponent Georgia would have is Georgia not playing well because they’re that dominating.”
If the Bulldogs are going to win the East again, they have to win at Tennessee on Nov. 18. And if they’re going to win the SEC again, they’ll likely have to go through Alabama or LSU in the conference championship game. Georgia beat LSU 50-30 last year to win the SEC title.
“We scored enough points, but we couldn’t match up physically yet,” LSU coach Brian Kelly said. “You look at the other teams, obviously Ohio State had enough of that to take them right down to the wire. Teams are building towards that model that Kirby’s put together. And he watched Nick [Saban] do it, making a major pivot towards scoring more points and being more productive offensively, all the while they still had to have that physicality. If you have a flaw in any one of those areas where you’re not physical enough on the offensive line or the defensive line, and you can’t be explosive, then you can’t beat Georgia.”
The list of teams capable of it is short, but it exists.
The four teams are listed from most to least likely team capable of beating the Bulldogs.
Alabama
Nick Saban’s record vs. Kirby Smart: 4-1
Last meeting: Georgia won 33-18 in the CFP National Championship Game on Jan. 10, 2022.
How they do it this year: The only way Georgia and Alabama would face each other this year is in the SEC championship, so this scenario assumes they win their respective divisions. What Alabama can’t do is continue its 2022 trend of penalties and turnovers. Both teams are searching for a new starting quarterback, but no matter who has earned the job for Nick Saban, he has been effective against the blitz. This could be an advantage for the Tide because Georgia has a tendency to blitz a lot when facing elite quarterbacks, and according to ESPN’s Stats & Information Group, under Saban, Alabama has the best QBR when blitzed in the FBS. In Georgia’s two close wins last year, against Missouri and Kentucky, the Bulldogs only attempted four passes over 20 yards, and this also favors the Tide. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info, opposing teams only completed 26% of their deep passes against the Tide last year — 15th best in the FBS.
How it impacts the CFP: It might not. This could be a repeat of the 2021 season, when Georgia went undefeated during the regular season — including a November win AT Tennessee — but lost to Alabama in the SEC championship game. Because it was Georgia’s only loss of the season, the Bulldogs finished in the selection committee’s top four with the Tide. The SEC could follow that blueprint again. If Georgia has two losses, though — let’s say South Carolina continues to play its role of CFP spoiler on Sept. 17 — it would more likely suffer the same fate as two-loss Alabama did last year without an SEC title to compensate for it.
Ohio State
Ryan Day’s record vs. Kirby Smart: 0-1
Last meeting: Georgia won 42-41 in the CFP semifinal at the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl on Dec. 31, 2022.
How they do it this year: This scenario assumes they meet again in the CFP, whether it’s a semifinal or the national championship. To finish the job, Ohio State can’t allow so many big plays on defense. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info, Ohio State allowed Georgia 10 plays of at least 20 yards, the most they’ve allowed in ANY game as far back as ESPN’s data tracks (since 2004). Stetson Bennett was a perfect 4-for-4 on throws 15-plus yards downfield in the final quarter. Ohio State, though, pushed back with seven offensive plays of at least 20 yards, and Georgia had never allowed more than five in any other game last season except against LSU (11). Ohio State and LSU were the only two teams last year that scored more than 22 points and had more than 400 total yards against the Bulldogs.
How it impacts the CFP: Obviously it eliminates the loser from the national championship, but the bigger picture is how a win against Georgia would elevate Day and quiet his critics. This would be Day’s fourth CFP appearance, and he is currently 1-3 in those CFP games with two of those losses being a last-second loss to Clemson in 2019 and last year’s one-point loss to Georgia. The third loss was the 52-24 loss to Alabama in the 2021 CFP championship game. If Day could beat Georgia this year without C.J. Stroud, it would prove he could win at the same level of his predecessor, Urban Meyer.
Tennessee
Josh Heupel’s record vs. Kirby Smart: 0-2
Last meeting: Georgia won 27-13 on Nov. 5, 2022.
How they do it this year: The Vols will have home field advantage on Nov. 18. This time, they have to be ready for the spotlight — and Georgia’s physical defense. Hendon Hooker was sacked six times last year, the crowd noise seemed to contribute to a series of false starts and the Vols lost a fumble and an interception. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info, Georgia blitzed Hooker 43% of the time — second only to the 48% against Ohio State’s Stroud. Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton has to handle an extra rusher, and he fared well when blitzed in the Orange Bowl against Clemson, completing 9 of 13 passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions. Georgia took them out of their rhythm, which is their offensive identity, and the Vols were unable to score quickly, allowing the Bulldogs to control the tempo. Tennessee can’t settle for field goals again and has to convert on third downs to extend drives.
How it impacts the CFP: A Tennessee win could eliminate Georgia from the top four and catapult the Vols in — or cement their spot. If Tennessee wins the East, one-loss Georgia will have some strength of schedule issues on Selection Day. Their nonconference schedule includes UT Martin, Ball State, UAB and Georgia Tech. That’s a problem. Without a win against the Vols and no SEC title, Georgia will have a difficult time claiming a statement win. Georgia will need crossover opponent Ole Miss to be a top-25 team, and the Bulldogs need other SEC East teams in the committee’s top 25. Even that might not be enough, because Georgia will be compared with Power 5 conference champions who could have better résumés. It could also be compared in this case against the SEC champion and its runner-up, losing a head-to-head tiebreaker to the Vols. There could still be two SEC teams in, but Georgia probably wouldn’t be one of them in this case.
LSU
Brian Kelly’s record vs. Kirby Smart: 0-3 (twice at Notre Dame, once at LSU)
Last meeting: Georgia won 50-30 in the SEC championship game on Dec. 3, 2022.
How they do it this year: This scenario assumes LSU and Georgia win their respective divisions and meet for a second straight season in the SEC title game — which also means LSU has to win at Alabama on Nov. 4, or hope the Tide lose twice again. If LSU gets a second shot at Georgia, it needs to continue to carve up the Bulldogs’ defense with the big plays. Last year, LSU had 11 plays of at least 20 yards. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info, Jayden Daniels had 95 QBR against Georgia’s zone defense in the SEC title game. All five starters return to LSU’s offensive line this season, and would be key in stealing the SEC title from Georgia.
“Their offensive and defensive lines, you have to match their physicality first,” Kelly said. “You have to build your program based upon the ability to win those physical matchups. And then, from our perspective, is the ability to put points on the board. You’re not going to win 10-7, 14-10, you have to have explosive playmakers. There’s just not many teams like that yet. We think we can get there, but there’s not many teams at that level.”
How it impacts the CFP: LSU would be in as SEC champ, no question. Schedule strength is not an issue with Florida State to open the season and an SEC West slate. The bigger question is if Georgia would still finish in the top four as runner-up, and that’s not a given because of the Bulldogs’ weak nonconference schedule referenced above. So much more goes into this answer, including: how dominant Georgia was in its wins; how many ranked opponents it defeated during the regular season; how the Nov. 18 game at Tennessee unfolded; how the other Power 5 conference champions compare and how highly the selection committee regarded the Bulldogs to that point.
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