Mock drafts are a fun exercise every year, even though everyone knows they’re little more than educated guesswork.
When it comes to the Philadelphia Eagles and their hyper-aggressive general manager, they tend to be absolutely pointless.
That’s because Howie Roseman, the Eagles GM for most of the last 14 years, has become the king of blowing up mock drafts because he just can’t seem to sit still in the first round. There have only been three times in the last 10 years where he made the pick in the first round that his team had earned the previous season. And in those nine drafts — not including the one run by Chip Kelly in 2015 — he has made trades involving first-round picks a remarkable 12 times.
So yes, the Eagles currently have the 10th and 30th picks in the first round of this year’s draft. But what happens if — or is it when — Trader Howie starts dealing those picks again?
Would he trade up or down? And who would be his targets? Would he really end up trading both of his first-round picks? There are endless possibilities when it comes to Roseman. So for this Eagles 7-round mock draft, version 2.0, here’s what it might look like if Roseman starts playing “Let’s Make A Deal”:
First round, No. 10 overall (from New Orleans): TRADE!
The deal: The Eagles trade the 10th pick, their second-round pick (62nd overall) and their two second-round picks in 2024 to the Seattle Seahawks for the 5th overall pick.
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The pick (at No. 5): Georgia DT Jalen Carter
Most GMs treat draft picks like gold, and they treat top-10 picks like platinum. They’re usually not likely to pass up the chance for an elite prospect unless the return haul is remarkable. That’s why I think that if Roseman is inclined to deal, he’s not going to drop out of the top 10 — he’s going to move up. And I think his target could be the 6-3, 314-pound Carter, who some scouts think might be the best prospect in the draft.
Yes, there is the matter of the misdemeanor charges in Georgia for reckless driving and racing in an incident that resulted in two deaths. Carter pleaded no contest and was sentenced to 12 months probation. No, I don’t think that will dissuade any NFL team from drafting him. He seems like a lock to go somewhere in the first nine picks.
And if the Eagles want him as a replacement for DT Javon Hargrave, whom they lost in free agency — and they are bringing Carter in for one of their 30 pre-draft visits — I think they’ll have to get into the top 5. Seattle might want to stay at 5 and take Carter there too. But if Roseman is the king of blowing up mock drafts, Seahawks GM John Schneider is the prince. He’s been almost as active as Roseman in trading draft picks over the years.
So it certainly seems likely these two can get together and trade. The cost, though, is hard to predict. In 2021 the Eagles got an extra first-rounder (in 2022) from Miami to let the Dolphins jump from 12th to 6th — a pretty comparable jump. I doubt the Eagles want to give up a 2024 first-rounder, though. A better model might be the three second-round picks the Jets gave to the Colts to move from 6 to 3 in 2018.
The Eagles do have two second-rounders next season. So I’d propose trading those and this year’s second-rounder (62nd overall) to Seattle to move up to 5. It might be worth it to get a potentially dominant interior pass rusher. Some scouts think the 6-3, 314-pounder is the best player in the entire draft. It would be a big step towards fortifying the Eagles defensive line for years to come.
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First round, No. 30 overall: TRADE!
The deal: The Eagles trade the 30th overall pick and a fifth-round pick in 2024 to the Las Vegas Raiders for a second-round pick (38th), a fourth-round pick (109th) and a second-round pick in 2024.
The pick: Minnesota C John Michael Schmitz
Roseman’s not going to give up all those second-round picks without at least trying to get them back. Now, his ability to do that will depend on someone valuable slipping to the bottom of the first round or a team near the top of the second round wanting to get back into the first. I picked the Raiders because I could see them getting aggressive if a quarterback, top receiver, or even one of the top two tight ends slipped into that range.
They do have to pay a bit of a high price to get back in, but first-round picks don’t come cheap. And Roseman has history on his side. He knows that in 2019 he got a similar haul from Baltimore when they wanted the last pick of the first round to take quarterback Lamar Jackson.
He also knows that dropping from 30 to 38 won’t make that much of a difference in his draft plans. There will be a group of players he’ll consider at 30 and likely one or two will still be available eight picks later. They’ll settle on Schmitz because the Eagles need a future replacement for 35-year-old center Jason Kelce. They might need a little luck, though, for the 6-3, 301-pound Schmitz to still be available since some think he’s the best center prospect in the draft.
Third round, No. 94 overall: Notre Dame S Brandon Joseph
Safety isn’t exactly a high-priority position in Roseman’s world, but he did still lose both his starting safeties in free agency (C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps). He replaced them with two fine veterans in Justin Evans and Terrell Edmunds, but both were signed to one-year deals. They still need to think about the future. Joseph (6-2, 202) could be good value here in what is generally a terrible draft for safeties. He was better at Northwestern before he transferred for his senior year, but his size and speed (4.62) to give Philly something to work with, especially if he doesn’t have to start right away.
Fourth round, No. 109 overall (from Las Vegas): Syracuse RB Sean Tucker
Losing Miles Sanders is more of a blow than Roseman will be willing to admit, and they can’t put all their hopes on the injury-prone Rashad Penny. They need more for their rotation and a talented young player to develop. Tucker is small (5-9, 207) but runs with power and the moves to be elusive in the open field. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry in three years for the Orange and was a good (and badly underused) receiver. He’s not much of a blocker, which could limit his playing time, but he’ll be a nice fit in a deep rotation.
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Seventh round, No. 219 overall: Miami TE Will Mallory
The Eagles got absolutely nothing out of the tight end spot when Dallas Goedert was hurt last season. And while they obviously didn’t think they needed to pay a lot of attention to his backup, getting someone who can do anything as a receiver wouldn’t hurt. The 6-4, 239-pound Mallory has good speed — his 4.54 in the 40 was the fastest among TEs at the combine — and had decent production for the Hurricanes. His key to playing time will be improving a lot as a blocker.
Seventh round, No. 248 overall: Florida WR Justin Shorter
Receiver is hardly a need for the Eagles, though they did lose their fourth receiver, Zach Pascal, to free agency. Shorter has really good size (6-4, 229) and can run well for a big man (4.55). He’s mostly limited to straight-ahead speed, but that still would make him an intriguing deep threat if he can stick as a fourth receiver.
Ralph Vacchiano is the NFC East reporter for FOX Sports, covering the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.
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