Grading the trade: Did Texans give up too much to grab Will Anderson Jr.?

Last updated: 2023/04/28 at 5:32 AM

BigP Published April 28, 2023

12:21 AM ET

We’ll find out who won the draft day trade in three or four years, they say. Nonsense!

NFL general managers don’t have the benefit of hindsight when it comes to making trades — why should we when evaluating those trades? We’re grading these draft day deals immediately, based on the information available — just like the teams are doing.

To evaluate these deals, we’ll be relying heavily on our Approximate Value-based draft pick value calculations, along with important factors such as positional value, salary cap implications, veteran player impact and short- and long-term team outlook.

Trades during the draft can be enormously consequential and can set the direction for a franchise for years to come, so don’t sleep on the importance of faring well here.

We’ll update this page with deals as they come in throughout the draft.

Houston Texans get: 2023 first-round pick (No. 3), 2023 fourth-round pick (No. 105)
Arizona Cardinals get: 2023 first-round pick (No. 12), 2023 second-round pick (No. 33), 2024 first-round pick, 2024 third-round pick

Texans grade: C-
Cardinals grade: A-

The best thing a team can do to fast-track a rebuild is to take a first-round quarterback without having to trade up. It’s a gift the Texans were given when they took C.J. Stroud at the No. 2 overall pick. In fact, they had one better — an additional first-round pick in this year’s draft. But by trading up, they squandered a lot of the surplus value they had accumulated.

NFL teams are regularly overconfident in their ability to assess prospects, and the result is a trade market that punishes teams that trade up for non-quarterbacks. According to ESPN’s AV-based draft value calculations, Houston is surrendering the equivalent of a top-10 pick in extra value to make this selection. In fact, the picks this year (12 and 33) would almost be enough to get to fair value for picks 3 and 105.

Yates: Texans traded a haul to get Will Anderson Jr.

Field Yates breaks down Texans trading up to the No. 3 pick to take Will Anderson Jr.

That being said, two factors take the sting out of this for Houston, though:

1. Will Anderson Jr. is a consensus elite prospect that plays a premier position.

2. They did not pay as much as the 49ers did to move from 12 to 3 to select Trey Lance a few years ago. That deal was exorbitant, and at least the Texans did not consider that to be a set market price.