At this stage of the NFL draft cycle, speculation becomes a sport unto itself.
The start of the 2023 draft (8 p.m. ET Thursday on ESPN, ABC, ESPN App) will bring some answers to questions about what teams really thought about the players the NFL world had been analyzing and hyper-analyzing. The name announced by commissioner Roger Goodell at the top of Round 1 is only the beginning,
Until then, all we can focus on is what we’re hearing, and we’ve assembled a consortium of well-informed reporters and analysts covering the NFL (Jeremy Fowler, Dan Graziano), the NFL draft (Matt Miller, Jordan Reid) and college football (Adam Rittenberg) to try to separate what’s real from what isn’t in these final hours.
What’s the latest on top quarterbacks Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson? Which teams could trade out of — and into — the top 10 picks? And which veteran players could get traded over the next week? Fowler, Graziano, Miller, Reid and Rittenberg tell you what they’ve heard.
Jump to a topic:
Top 10 dominoes | Bijan Robinson
Jalen Carter | Teams that could trade back
Veteran trade targets | Down WR year
Wilson vs. Anderson | First O-line picked?
Surprises in Round 1? | Emptying notebook
Let’s get this out of the way: Bryce Young is still the overwhelming favorite to go No. 1 overall to the Carolina Panthers. What happens after that, with the Houston Texans picking at No. 2, is being kept under lock and key. As Todd McShay mentioned earlier this week, there’s buzz about Houston targeting one of the top edge rushers — Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. or Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson — instead of a quarterback, which could leave the Ohio State passer without an early landing spot.
The Indianapolis Colts (No. 4 overall), Detroit Lions (No. 6), Las Vegas Raiders (No. 7) and Tennessee Titans (No. 11) are the next teams in line that could target a quarterback such as Stroud. Sources I’ve talked to in the league expect the Lions and Raiders to entertain the thought of drafting a QB if Stroud is there, but with established veterans already in place, they might prefer an instant-impact pick, likely on defense.
“I think his slide could be similar to [Justin] Fields’ and he went at 11,” one league executive shared with me last week. “There’s no way [Stroud] gets past Tennessee at that spot. … With [Ryan] Tannehill entering his last year of the deal, it makes sense.” — Reid
So why could Stroud drop a few spots? The draft machine can hype up or tear down a quarterback in short order, and Stroud has experienced both sides. He finished just behind Young among execs and scouts we spoke to for our tiers package a couple of weeks back. The order was Young and Stroud in Tier 1, with Anthony Richardson (Florida) in a hybrid 1.5 tier and Will Levis (Kentucky) the next man up.
Over the past few days, though, negative reports about Stroud’s S2 cognition test score, criticism of his coachability and even some scrutiny over his Manning Passing Academy attendance have called his stock into question.
Is the S2 testing significant? Yes, for some teams, it is a data point in selecting players. About half the teams in the NFL use the S2 test, including a few selecting in the top 10. According to one scout for an NFC team, S2 gauges instinctive learning, quick processing, spatial awareness — things that are hard to teach, basically. The test hasn’t been made public.
After asking multiple teams about Stroud’s standing, some say he could slide as a result. “Probably overblown,” an AFC exec said. “He’s a really good player.” Added a veteran AFC scout: “Someone would come get him in the back half of the top 10 if he fell there. I think half of it is a mirage for someone who wants to make a move and still get him.”
As Jordan noted, sources I’ve talked to agree that Tennessee at No. 11 is a good floor to consider for Stroud. Coach Mike Vrabel’s Ohio State ties should give him intimate knowledge on Stroud’s game. — Fowler
More on unpredictable top-10 dominoes
Injecting logic into Houston’s plans is not easy. “No one knows what they are doing,” an NFC executive said.
The Texans and Arizona Cardinals at Nos. 2 and 3 are both candidates to trade out, but that could come down to Thursday, and it’s hardly a slam dunk a deal is there to be done.
It feels anything is possible with Houston. Stroud would be tough to pass up and Levis had a positive pre-draft meeting with Texans brass. Levis’ personality would mesh with general manager Nick Caserio, too. It does appear the Texans are at least open to drafting a defensive player at No. 2 (possibly Anderson or Wilson). In fact, I’ve spoken to multiple executives this week who expect both Houston and Arizona to lean defense.
1:40
Orlovsky: Texans should draft Anthony Richardson at No. 2
Dan Orlovsky explains why the Houston Texans should draft Florida QB Anthony Richardson with the No. 2 overall pick.
Anderson expects to go somewhere in the 2-to-5 range. If his floor is Seattle at No. 5, that’s a place he wouldn’t mind ending up. The Cardinals have been linked to Wilson and offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State). Though No. 3 is considered rich for Johnson, there’s buzz that Arizona likes him.
A defensive-heavy top three would give Indy its pick among Levis, Stroud and Richardson. Some execs have long made the Levis-Colts connection, considering them an ideal pairing, but the Colts haven’t played their hand. “I think a few teams drafting high are sandbagging for Levis,” said an NFL GM.
Teams I’ve talked to believe Seattle is at least thinking about taking Richardson, as McShay mentioned Monday. Richardson expects to be under strong consideration among several teams in the top seven. — Fowler
Many around the league believe the Texas running back could go as high as No. 8 overall to the Atlanta Falcons, where general manager Terry Fontenot and coach Arthur Smith have shown a pattern of taking the best player available regardless of position. Tyler Allgeier was a 1,000-yard rusher a season ago, but he’s not a game-changer like Robinson.
With the emphasis on running a ball-control offense, Smith could favor using Robinson similarly to how he used Derrick Henry during Smith’s time as offensive coordinator in Tennessee, but Robinson provides much more versatility and juice in the passing game. The Falcons still need help off the edge and in the secondary, but don’t be surprised if they stick to their best-player-available theory by drafting Robinson. — Reid
I am hearing a lot about Robinson to the Falcons as well, but I’m watching to see whether they try to slide down a couple of spots to get him. For example, if the draft gets to No. 8 and one or more of the top quarterbacks is still available, would Tennessee try to come up from No. 11? Would Houston try to come up from No. 12? Atlanta could pocket an extra pick or two, slide back a couple of spots and still get their guy a little cheaper.
1:22
Bijan Robinson: It’s important to value the versatility in RBs
NFL draft prospect Bijan Robinson gives his take on the value of running backs in today’s NFL and the importance of versatility.
If Robinson starts to slide toward the Ravens’ spot at No. 22, I’d watch them as a possibility to move up for him. Baltimore is focused on adding playmakers in an attempt to show Lamar Jackson it’s serious about bringing him back and building a better offense around him. — Graziano
One NFL GM told me there’s enough love for Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs, and some teams could prioritize him above Robinson, largely considered the draft’s best back and perhaps the best overall player. The reason? Gibbs offers more of an Alvin Kamara style of play, with the ability to hit home runs in the pass-catching game. Some teams prefer that change-of-pace playmaker in their backfield vs. the traditional do-it-all back.
Most scouts consider Robinson the superior player to Gibbs (199 pounds), but the gap isn’t as big as some think, depending on the team you ask. — Fowler
The Georgia defensive tackle has been among the most discussed players in this class, and his landing spot remains a hot topic among NFL sources. In a poll of a half-dozen scouts and general managers, the prediction was that Carter would be drafted at No. 9 overall by the Chicago Bears. It’s widely expected Carter will be drafted in the top 10 after meeting with every team holding Picks 5 through 10 in pre-draft visits. — Miller
Most teams I’ve talked to have Carter going in that same range, Matt. Execs see Seattle as a perfect landing spot for Carter, with Pete Carroll’s ability to manage strong personalities and maximize talent. The expectation is the premier talent on tape keeps him in the top 10.
Concerns — from weight gain this offseason to charges connected to a deadly car crash (Carter pled no contest) — are not hard to find with Carter. Many teams believe the talent outweighs the drawbacks, however, especially if he goes to a strong locker room with a stable culture. — Fowler
Which other teams could trade back?
We know Arizona wants to move back from No. 3 to accumulate picks, and some teams believe the Cardinals will eventually get a nice haul. Other teams that could have some interest in trading back include the Philadelphia Eagles (No. 10), Titans (11) and Lions (18). The Eagles have just six picks and wouldn’t mind adding more if a move makes sense.
While many are pegging Tennessee as a candidate to grab a quarterback high, some teams believe the Titans could be looking to accumulate picks via a trade back. The roster needs reinforcements at more spots than just quarterback. Deepening the intrigue is what Tennessee does with Ryan Tannehill, who has a $36 million cap hit. — Fowler
Vets on the move via trade?
A few veteran names to watch for potential in-draft trades, now that the Aaron Rodgers deal is done, include Bengals offensive tackle Jonah Williams (who has asked the team to trade him), Arizona safety Budda Baker (same) and Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook (some people think Miami could get aggressive there if he becomes available because the Vikings have drafted another running back).
Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is available, but interested teams have wanted Arizona to pay a portion of his $19.45 million salary, and it doesn’t make a lot of sense for it to unload him if it isn’t getting the full benefit of the cap relief.
2:08
Is Kansas City a good landing spot for DeAndre Hopkins?
Jeff Darlington breaks down why DeAndre Hopkins and the Chiefs could be a good fit.
Tennessee could move Tannehill if the Titans take a quarterback in the first round, but like others here, I am hearing the Titans are more interested in moving down than up.
Teams have known for a while the Broncos would consider moving one of their wide receivers, but they’ve asked for high prices in return for Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton. Teams are watching to see whether Denver drops its demands for those guys, but as of now neither seems likely to get moved.
Another team to watch for potential trades is the Washington Commanders. Edge rusher Montez Sweat is heading into his fifth-year option season and has yet to have his contract extended beyond 2023. Fellow edge rusher Chase Young will not have his fifth-year option for 2024 exercised, multiple sources confirmed to ESPN on Wednesday. The decision to not pick up Young’s option leaves Washington with two possible free agent defensive ends next offseason, and trading one of them could be the answer. — Graziano
A down year for the Round 1 WRs
The common theme I’m hearing is this is not a very good draft class in general. I usually ask teams leading up to the draft how many first-round grades they have on guys, and in most years the answers fall in the 21-25 range. This year, I’m hearing a lot of 14s, 15s, 16s and even lower in a couple of cases. So, rough overall … but especially so at wide receiver.
For proof, look no further than the Pittsburgh Steelers — a team known for drafting and developing their own wide receivers with consistent success — who just traded for a 29-year-old Allen Robinson, who has caught a total of 71 balls the past two years. Don’t get me wrong; there will be some wideouts drafted in the first round. But more than in recent years, teams seem skeptical of finding instant-impact solutions at that position in this year’s draft. — Graziano
Could the Jets target the top WR?
The New York Jets struck gold in the 2022 draft by selecting Ohio State wide receiver Garrett Wilson (the No. 10 overall pick), who had a 1,000-yard rookie season despite uneven quarterback play. Based on conversations with people around the league and sources with knowledge of the Jets’ draft plans, the team has spent considerable time and resources doing work on another Buckeyes wide receiver.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, my top-ranked wideout, is expected to be off the board by the time the Jets draft at No. 15 — he might even go to the Packers at No. 13 following their swap as part of the Aaron Rodgers deal — but if you’re looking for a Thursday night surprise, this could be it. — Miller
Packers could keep moving
The Green Bay Packers moved up two spots in the first round and added a high second-round pick as part of the Rodgers deal with the Jets. This gives them some extra tools with which to engineer more deals if they so choose. Example: Let’s say there’s a player available at No. 8 whom the Packers want, and they want to get ahead of the division-rival Bears (picking at No. 9) to get him. It’s easier to get to No. 8 from No. 13 than from No. 15.
As for whom the Packers could target, while there’s a lot of chatter about a tight end or an offensive tackle, history says it’s far more likely they take a defensive player. Since drafting Rodgers in 2005, the Packers have made 18 first-round picks, and 15 of them have played on the defensive side of the ball. The exceptions are offensive linemen Bryan Bulaga and Derek Sherrod in 2010 and 2011, respectively, and Jordan Love in 2020.
1:12
What will Packers do in 1st draft post-Rodgers?
Matt Miller predicts that the Packers will finally bolster their pass-catchers with Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round and Luke Musgrave in the second.
Could they break tradition and add a first-round player to help out Love in his first season as the starter? Sure. But the guy I’m watching for them is Georgia edge rusher Nolan Smith. Remember, the Pack had two first-round picks last year and took Georgia defenders with both of them. They like that Georgia defense a lot! — Graziano
Anderson has been one of the top college players over the past three seasons, has played for Nick Saban and has “no red flags,” according to a league source. But Wilson’s traits and upside have teams intrigued, perhaps even enough to draft him ahead of the Alabama star.
“A lot of people think Tyree Wilson’s the best outside ‘backer,” an NFL assistant said. “The NFL is always looking for those freaky trait guys, and Will Anderson’s not a freaky trait [guy], but I’d say he’s a freaky football player.”
The coach noted Anderson played more 4i technique last season — lining up on the inside shoulder of an offensive tackle — which led to less impressive numbers than he had in 2021. A Big 12 offensive coordinator said Wilson didn’t jump out on scouting reports until last season, but he has risen rapidly. — Rittenberg
I have had a few teams tell me there is concern about Wilson’s foot injury continuing to cause him problems going forward — he didn’t do the athletic testing or on-field drills at the combine — and as a result some teams are leery of the idea of committing a high pick to him. Now, of course, none of that matters if Houston likes him enough to take him at No. 2, but it’s something to watch in case Wilson tumbles further than expected.
The best way this was described to me was, “it’s a risk tolerance thing,” meaning Wilson might have an issue with the foot but is such a talent that he’s probably worth taking the chance on. One front-office executive described Wilson’s physical frame to me like this: “He looks like he could tie his shoes standing up.” — Graziano
Wilson being selected ahead of Anderson is a very real possibility. Similar to what happened when Travon Walker went No. 1 overall ahead of Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux last year, many NFL front offices and scouting departments value upside and potential over the more polished player today. There are many around the league who feel Wilson has tons of upside. With his timeline of development at its peak possibly one to two years from now, Wilson fits into the Texans’ rebuild plan, allowing him to improve on a team full of young players. — Reid
Paris Johnson Jr. on the rise and other O-lineman buzz
One name mentioned often in calls and texts with team sources this week is the Ohio State left tackle. Said one NFC area scout about Johnson: “He’s the only Day 1 left tackle and maybe the only true left tackle of the first-round guys.” Johnson, who started at right guard before moving to left tackle for the 2022 season, surrendered just two sacks all season — one against Michigan and another versus Georgia — and is seen by teams as the most pro-ready tackle, while also having considerable upside given his inexperience at the position. — Miller
Offensive tackle is a position that could create much movement, especially in the fringe of the top 10 and early teens. First, let’s slide Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski off this list since many teams I talk to believe he’s a guard at the next level … and a good one. “He could be the next Zach Martin,” one NFC scout said.
Johnson is considered the cleanest tackle prospect and could be off the board early. If Arizona pulls off the trade down from No. 3, I could see Johnson as a viable option for them.
Georgia’s Broderick Jones is an option for the Jets at No. 15 — he got positive feedback from the team during the pre-draft process. His range seems to be anywhere from No. 11 to late first round.
The most talented tackle might be Tennessee’s Darnell Wright, who could go as early as No. 9 to Chicago. Some teams have maturity concerns about Wright, but he believes — and has tried to prove — that he’s well past issues from early in his UT tenure. Most teams have a hard time believing he’ll slip based on his immense talent. He could surprise people.
Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison is a bit of a wild card — teams see a first-round talent but are unsure of his draft range. — Fowler
An arm-length concern has some teams projecting Skoronski as a guard and not a tackle. He still could go high, because as Jeremy mentions, his talent indicates he could be a long-term starter at some position on the offensive line, but it’s possible some of the tackles will elevate above him due to those concerns.
As of now, if I had to guess which OT would go first, I’d pick Johnson. The concern on him, according to multiple teams I’ve talked to, is that he’s a bit “light” — meaning not necessarily his physical size but his playing style and his vulnerability to more powerful players on the defensive side. He’s seen as a player with good instincts and no character concerns, though, and could be in play for several teams in the top half of the first round. — Graziano
More emerging first-round names
When I asked execs which surprise names could vault into the first round, three that came up were Syracuse offensive tackle Matt Bergeron, Tennessee receiver Jalin Hyatt and Michigan cornerback DJ Turner.
Up to six corners could also go in Round 1. Illinois’ Devon Witherspoon and Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez start the corner conversation, followed by Maryland’s Deonte Banks, Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr. and Mississippi State’s Emmanuel Forbes. Forbes’ 6-foot-1, 166-pound frame does worry some teams, but as one NFL coordinator said, “the ball production and the smooth play is so good that you can live with it.”
As for Bergeron, “He’s big, long, powerful and is good off the field,” an NFC scout said. “That’s usually good enough to get you into the first round.”
Up to five receivers could sneak into the first. Boston College’s Zay Flowers, Ohio State’s Smith-Njigba, TCU’s Quentin Johnston and USC’s Jordan Addison have a case. Hyatt would be the fifth. A range of 25-to-40 isn’t far-fetched for him, due to his elite speed.
As for the top half of the first, a pair of pass-rushers are making compelling cases to go high: Georgia’s Smith and Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness. They aren’t locks, but they’ve made impressions, and it wouldn’t surprise some of the teams I’ve talked to if at least one cracked the top 10. One AFC exec said he’d be surprised if Smith got past Pittsburgh at No. 17.
One more note: It’s possible Utah’s Dalton Kincaid is the first pass-catcher off the board. — Fowler
QUICK-HIT NOTES
Graziano
-
As much fun as it is to imagine Bijan Robinson with the Eagles, it would be out of character for them to take him in the top 10. More than likely, I’d say the Eagles could use both of their first-round picks on defensive players.
-
People also seem to like the idea of Robinson to the Dallas Cowboys as Ezekiel Elliott‘s replacement, and if he were there for them at No. 26, I believe they would take him. But I doubt they make an aggressive move up to get him, and it’s more likely they end up with an offensive lineman or a tight end if they stay where they are in Round 1.
-
Teams I’ve talked to do not sound concerned about edge rusher Nolan Smith‘s health. He suffered a pectoral muscle injury in November that cost him the rest of the season, but it’s not expected to threaten his availability for the start of the season. It’s possible it could limit him in offseason work, but it sounds like teams believe he can be good to go in time for Week 1.
-
If teams in the middle-to-late part of the first round aren’t thrilled with what’s available and are looking to trade down, the flip side is that they’ll need to find someone who wants to trade up. Three to watch are Baltimore, who could be aggressive coming up from 22 to land the offensive playmaker they’re looking for, the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs at No. 31 and the New Orleans Saints, who have the No. 29 pick as a result of the Sean Payton trade and have a history of moving up in the first round to get players they’ve targeted.
Fowler
-
While Trey Lance‘s future with the San Francisco 49ers is uncertain, several execs saw Sam Darnold‘s signing in free agency as significant. “I think he plays meaningful snaps for them early on,” an AFC exec said. “He’s a great fit for their system and [Brock] Purdy is injured.” Something to file away as draft-week trade talks intensify, though Lance could be valuable to San Francisco while Purdy is out. The 49ers would likely need a substantial return for Lance, whose contract would leave the team with $11 million in dead money. While Purdy appears in line to start in 2023, he still needs time to recover from significant elbow surgery.
-
As Dan mentions, teams that have talked with Arizona about DeAndre Hopkins would like a portion of Hopkins’ $19.45 million base salary covered to facilitate a deal, and Arizona has in the past been unwilling to do that. Let’s see if the Cardinals relent on that stance. I’ve talked to several teams that wonder whether Arizona will just end up releasing Hopkins, with the logic that the money required to cover a trade isn’t worth the draft pick.
-
Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler, who wants a trade due to a contract stalemate, has teams interested in potentially trading for him, but the desired new deal could be prohibitive.
Miller
-
The closer we get to Thursday, the harder it is to identify the team willing to trade into the No. 2 or No. 3 overall spot. “There’s no one worth trading up for,” is how one AFC general manager put it to me when asked why there’s a lack of buzz about trade movement. This could change, of course, once the Panthers make a selection, but word on the street is that while the Texans and Arizona Cardinals might want to trade down from their respective picks, no team is anxious to trade up with them.
-
I’ve heard consistent buzz since the NFL combine in March that the Colts fell for quarterback Will Levis during interviews and his workout, and that those sentiments have only intensified since the organization has gotten to better know the senior passer. Levis, a two-year starter at Kentucky, is seen internally as pro-ready and comes with the stamp of approval from the Manning family — which carries weight in Indianapolis. Levis at No. 4 overall is a favorite projection among NFL sources I spoke to this week.
-
Keep an eye on the cornerback position as it relates to the Raiders. While doing a top-10 mock draft exercise with an NFL front office exec, he mentioned the Raiders are desperate to get a starting cornerback in this draft. Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez was his pick for the Raiders, and at No. 7 overall, that’s the right range for the 6-foot-2 cover man.
Rittenberg
-
Indianapolis could be an interesting landing spot for quarterback Anthony Richardson. NFL assistants think new Colts coach Shane Steichen would be a good mentor for Richardson after molding Jalen Hurts — a player college defensive coordinators had significant doubts about as an NFL prospect — into an All-Pro with the Eagles. The question with Richardson is whether he would devote himself to learning the game as much as Hurts has done in Philly. “He’s a big version of Michael Vick,” a league source said of Richardson. “He’s a much better athlete than Cam Newton. I don’t think he throws it as well.”
-
Oregon State’s Luke Musgrave is one of the more compelling prospects in a deep group of tight ends, despite being limited by injury to only two games last season. Beavers assistant coaches told me Musgrave’s workouts at the combine and Oregon State’s pro day have put him in solid Day 2 position. The interesting debate could be Musgrave, Georgia’s Darnell Washington or Iowa’s Sam LaPorta as the third tight end selected behind Utah’s Dalton Kincaid and Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer. A college offensive coordinator said LaPorta will thrive in the NFL much more than in college, much like former Hawkeyes tight end George Kittle (48 college receptions).
