Bucs’ 2023 season may hinge on how they handle young opposing QBs

Greg Auman

NFC South Reporter

The NFL‘s 2023 schedules are likely to be unveiled this week, but every team’s opponents for the upcoming season are already known. With that in mind, it’s safe to say that a big part of the Bucs‘ success or failure this fall will hinge on how well Todd Bowles’ defense fares against young quarterbacks.

Tampa Bay will play 17 games this fall, and it’s reasonable to think that eight of them — nearly half — will be against quarterbacks with five or fewer career starts entering this season. That includes the three rookies taken in the top four picks of the 2023 NFL Draft — two games against Carolina and Bryce Young, plus games at Houston (C.J. Stroud) and Indianapolis (Anthony Richardson). Those rookies might not yet be starting when the Bucs face their teams, but Tampa Bay also has two games against Atlanta and Desmond Ridder (four career starts), one against San Francisco and Brock Purdy (five career starts) and one against Green Bay and Jordan Love (one career start).

Joel Klatt’s favorite picks of 2023 NFL Draft

Joel Klatt reveals his favorite picks in the 2023 NFL Draft and explains why QB Will Levis slipped into the second round.

That’s eight out of 17 against young, inexperienced starting quarterbacks, and it could be more. The Bucs actually face all of the first five quarterbacks picked in last month’s draft, so in theory, they could see second-round pick Will Levis whenever the Titans come to Tampa, and less likely third-round pick Hendon Hooker when they face Detroit.

From a quarterback standpoint, the Bucs’ 2023 season will be very different from 2022, and not just because Tom Brady has retired. Brady went up against some of the NFL’s best quarterbacks last year, facing Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson. By comparison, you could argue that the Bucs will face only three top-10 NFL quarterbacks this fall, in Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and perhaps Trevor Lawrence.

So given the relative youth of the quarterbacks they’ll be facing, the larger question is this: How will the Bucs defense handle the opportunity to confuse/confound/rattle an inexperienced passer? The answer has been a mixed bag in the past four years with Bowles running the Tampa Bay defense.

From the middle of 2019 to the middle of 2021, this was a dream matchup for Bowles’ defense, which won seven straight games against quarterbacks with 10 career starts or fewer. The Bucs beat Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, Mac Jones, Hurts and Justin Fields early in their careers in that stretch, giving up a total of 10 touchdowns passes against 10 interceptions in those seven wins. This is what you’d expect, with Bowles throwing multiple fronts and coverages and creative blitz packages against quarterbacks still learning how to read and process the defenses in front of them.

Since then? It’s not pretty. Since November 2021, with Brady at quarterback, the Bucs are 1-6 against opposing quarterbacks with 10 career starts or fewer, and that one single win needed overtime last year to beat Trace McSorley and a Cardinals team that would finish 4-13. These aren’t all high draft picks, with losses to players like Carolina’s P.J. Walker and Washington‘s Taylor Heinicke. In going 1-6 in those games, the Bucs defense gave up eight touchdowns and managed one interception, that coming against McSorley.

Now, you can affix an asterisk to some of these Bucs losses. The last one, against Ridder in Atlanta, came with the Bucs resting their starters in the second half (some more than that) because their playoff seeding was set. They lost to Pittsburgh and Kenny Pickett last year, but more because Mitchell Trubisky came in as an injury replacement. The overall vibe remains intact.

The Bucs’ 2023 season will be largely played against younger quarterbacks. Of their 17 opponents, they’re likely to have six games total against quarterbacks with 35 or more career starts entering the 2023 season: Derek Carr twice with New Orleans, Jared Goff and Ryan Tannehill, Allen and Kirk Cousins. Four games against rookies, four against very new starters, another against Fields, who is 5-20 as an NFL starter.

It’s counterintuitive, but in four years of Bowles running the Bucs defense, Tampa Bay is actually better against older, more experienced quarterbacks. Consider that 35-start line as a dividing point — they’re just 12-10 (55% wins) against quarterbacks with 35 career starts or fewer, and 27-17 (61% wins) against quarterbacks with 36 or more.

If the Bucs are to contend for a third straight division title this fall, they’ll have to find more consistent success against the younger quarterbacks who will be all over their schedule in 2023.

Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

FOLLOW Follow your favorites to personalize your FOX Sports experience