Houston Texans rookie projections: Will Anderson Jr. to have biggest Day 1 impact

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Ben Arthur

AFC South Reporter

Even with a new coach in DeMeco Ryans in 2023, the Texans need to show signs they’re transitioning out of a rebuild and heading toward competitiveness. For starters, they need to show that they can win more than four games, which they haven’t done since 2019.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud, the No. 2 overall pick, and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr., the third pick, highlight a nine-player draft class that general manager Nick Caserio needs to have a strong impact on the roster. Many view Caserio as being on the hot seat, having had the opportunity to hire three coaches in three years amid constant losing.

So what can the Texans expect from each member of their 2023 draft class?

Here’s a projection for each player:

Round 1, No. 2 overall: QB C.J. Stroud
Year 1 projection: starter

With Stroud, the expectations are obvious: become a franchise quarterback long-term.

The Texans won’t say that, of course — Ryans said in the pre-draft process that there wouldn’t be any added pressure on the No. 2 overall pick. But that’s a reasonable expectation from the team’s fans and observers, due to Stroud’s position and how high he was selected.

Houston hasn’t had a franchise quarterback since Deshaun Watson, who was traded last spring. He didn’t play for the team in 2021 amid a trade request and later the emergence of several sexual assault allegations against him.

Stroud has said he hopes to become a franchise quarterback for the Texans. The expectation is that he’ll become the starter within the first few games of the 2023 season.

Houston has two experienced quarterbacks in the room between Davis Mills and Case Keenum, so Ryans won’t necessarily be rushed to put Stroud on the field.

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Round 1, No. 3 overall: edge Will Anderson Jr.
Year 1 projection: high-impact starter

Anderson, a two-time SEC Defensive Player of the Year at Alabama, should have the biggest Day 1 impact of any Texans rookie. His dominance for the Crimson Tide (62 tackles for loss, 34.5 sacks in 41 games) suggests he should be one of Houston’s best defensive starters right away and possibly its best pass-rusher.

Anderson has double-digit sack upside as a rookie. He’s the betting favorite to be the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Round 2, No. 62 overall: C Juice Scruggs
Year 1: starter

Considering his draft position, Scruggs should be the front-runner to be the starting center. It’s a spot that was manned last season by veteran Scott Quessenberry (16 starts), who re-signed with the Texans this offseason as a free agent.

Round 3, No. 69 overall: WR Nathaniel “Tank” Dell
Year 1 projection: WR4, kick returner

The shifty Dell might not be a starter as a rookie, but the hope is that he’d be one of the top reserve receivers.

On paper, he’s Houston’s top kick return option. Tremon Smith and Andre Roberts, who had a combined 39 kick returns for 923 yards last season, are no longer on the roster. Dell is also a punt returner behind Desmond King, who returned a team-high 17 punts for 154 yards in 2022.

Round 4, No. 109 overall: DL Dylan Horton
Year 1 projection: backup

Horton figures to be a rotational pass-rusher in Ryans’ defense. As a three-year starter at TCU and coming off a 10-sack 2022 campaign, he could be one of the Texans’ top backup defensive linemen right away.

Round 5, No. 167 overall: LB Henry To’oTo’o
Year 1 projection: backup/special teams

To’oTo’o has a chance to be a long-term starter at inside linebacker alongside close friend and former Alabama teammate Christian Kirksey, but his path to impact as a rookie is on special teams. On defense, the Texans have established veterans in front of him in Kirksey, a starter for Houston the past two years, and ex-Pro Bowlers Denzel Perryman and Cory Littleton.

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Round 6, No. 201 overall: OL Jarrett Patterson
Year 1: backup

Patterson, a four-year starter at Notre Dame, should provide back-end depth for the Texans’ offensive line, with the versatility to play center and guard. He started 46 games for the Irish — 34 at center, 12 at left guard.

Round 6, No. 205 overall: WR Xavier Hutchinson
Year 1 projection: backup/special teams

The Texans’ lack of top-end talent in the receiver room means Hutchinson has a chance to make the roster. He will also have to carve a spot on special teams to make the 53, but he showed enough at Iowa State to suggest he could be a rotational receiver in time. Hutchinson had 254 receptions in three years with the Cyclones and led the FBS in catches per game in 2022 (8.9).

Round 7, No. 248 overall: DB Brandon Hill
Year 1 projection: practice squad

The secondary is one of the deepest positions groups on the team, so it will be an uphill battle for Hill to make the roster.

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

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