Victor Wembanyama, a 19-year-old power big man from France, is a lock to go to the San Antonio Spurs with the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft on Thursday.
How much of a lock?
The two-time All-Star in France’s Ligue Nationale de Basketball (LNB) league has odds as short as -20000 to go first on Thursday at most sportsbooks (bet $10 to win $10.05 total).
You read that right — risk $10 to win a profit of … a nickel.
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For perspective, Zion Williamson had odds of -2000 to go first overall in 2019 (bet $10 to win $10.50 total) to New Orleans.
With the draft right around the corner, let’s take a look at the odds for the first through fifth pick and some betting trends, with an expert’s picks from FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:
First overall pick (San Antonio Spurs)
Victor Wembanyama: -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10 total)
Scoot Henderson: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Brandon Miller: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)
Amen Thompson: +20000 (bet $10 to win $2,010 total)
Ausar Thompson: +20000 (bet $10 to win $2,010 total)
Jarace Walker: +20000 (bet $10 to win $2,010 total)
Second overall pick (Charlotte Hornets)
Scoot Henderson: -275 (bet $10 to win $13.64 total)
Brandon Miller: +175 (bet $10 to win $27.50 total)
Victor Wembanyama: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Amen Thompson: +12500 (bet $10 to win $1,260 total)
Ausar Thompson: +12500 (bet $10 to win $1,260 total)
Jarace Walker: +12500 (bet $10 to win $1,260 total)
Third overall pick (Portland Trail Blazers)
Brandon Miller: -225 (bet $10 to win $14.44 total)
Scoot Henderson: +175 (bet $10 to win $27.50 total)
Amen Thompson: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Cam Whitmore: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
Ausar Thompson: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
Jarace Walker: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
Fourth overall pick (Houston Rockets)
Amen Thompson: -170 (bet $10 to win $15.88 total)
Cam Whitmore: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Ausar Thompson: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Jarace Walker: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Brandon Miller: +1900 (bet $10 to win $200 total)
Scoot Henderson: +2600 (bet $10 to win $270 total)
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Fifth overall pick (Detroit Pistons)
Jarace Walker: +170 (bet $10 to win $180 total)
Cam Whitmore: +195 (bet $10 to win $29.50 total)
Ausar Thompson: +380 (bet $10 to win $48 total)
Amen Thompson: +470 (bet $10 to win $57 total)
Taylor Hendricks: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Anthony Black: +2600 (bet $10 to win $270 total)
Picks via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:
There have been some big surprises with the fourth pick in recent years, like Josh Jackson (2017), De’Andre Hunter (2019) and Scottie Barnes (2021). Keegan Murray was a surprise to many in 2022 to the Kings, but we had him pegged there last year.
This year, the groupthink is centered around Amen Thompson. I’ve had Villanova‘s Cam Whitmore fourth in my mock draft for over a month, and his odds have come crashing down to +300.
Houston would love to add a veteran point guard and start winning some games, but it remains to be seen if that’s going to happen. Whitmore is younger than Thompson, a better scorer and fits more naturally into the small forward position.
Fourth overall pick: Cam Whitmore (+300, bet $10 to win $40 total)
I’ve pegged Dereck Lively to the Lakers at 17, but a world exists in which the Mavericks decide not to bring back Christian Wood and make a move on Lively.
There’s big risk here as Indiana at No. 7, Washington at No. 8 and Utah at No. 9 figure to have no interest in the Duke big man. But the Mavs’ defense was abhorrent down the stretch, and Lively would help significantly.
Top 10 pick: Dereck Lively (+210, bet $10 to win $31 total)
UCLA‘s Jaime Jaquez is a winning player, an older player with experience and ready to help a contender.
The good news is, there are several contenders in the 15-20 range who could use him, starting with Atlanta at 5 (especially if they trade John Collins), the Lakers at 17, the Heat at 18, and the Warriors at 19.
The problem is that teams drafting 20-23 aren’t contenders, and the Kings seem locked in on Iowa‘s Kris Murray at 24. So a contender who wants him could trade back a few spots and still get Jaquez.
Top 20 pick: Jaime Jaquez Jr. (+500, bet $10 to win $60 total)
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NBA Draft betting trends and nuggets via FOX Sports Research
If you still have any doubt about Wembanyama being drafted first overall, thirty out of the fifty-seven first overall picks have been 6’10 or taller. Wembanyama at 7’2 easily fits that bill.
Looking at more recent trends, since 2010 five of the thirteen first overall picks have been born outside the United States. Victor Wembanyama will likely continue to add to this trend when he will most likely be picked by the Spurs on Thursday.
In the modern NBA Draft’s history there have been a total of thirteen out of fifty-seven first overall picks that were born outside the United States. There is definitely a trend in recent history for more international born players to be drafted first overall.
Blue bloods Duke and Kentucky have also had a lot of success in producing top picks. Each school has had three first overall picks since 2010.
Kentucky overall though has produced the most lottery picks of any school with twenty-two total since 2010.
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